Ethiopia’s Acquisition of Su-35 Fighters Signals Growing Regional Military Tensions

By Abdikarim H. Abdi Buh

Ethiopia’s acquisition of 12 Russian Su-35 fighter jets marks a significant military development at a perilous moment for the Horn of Africa, where renewed internal warfare and escalating tensions with neighboring Eritrea are raising fears of a wider regional conflict.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced on Wednesday, October 28, that Ethiopia had received the first 12 Su-35 multirole fighters from Russia, with four batteries of S-400 air-defense systems expected under the same arrangement. Abiy said the aircraft had arrived a year ahead of schedule and thanked Russian President Vladimir Putin for facilitating the delivery. The government has not disclosed the cost of the agreement, the planned delivery date for the S-400 systems or where the new equipment will be deployed.

The timing is particularly consequential. Ethiopian federal forces are confronting renewed fighting in Tigray, while armed resistance continues in Amhara. At the same time, relations with Eritrea have deteriorated amid mutual accusations, reported cross-border military movements and a dispute over Ethiopia’s pursuit of access to the Red Sea.

The new aircraft could strengthen Ethiopia’s air-combat capabilities, but their arrival does not resolve the country’s internal conflicts. Instead, it underscores the extent to which Addis Ababa is investing in military power while confronting several interconnected security challenges.

A Major Expansion of Air Power

The Su-35 is a Russian-designed, fourth-generation-plus multirole fighter capable of air-to-air combat and air-to-ground missions. Its advanced radar, maneuverability and weapons capabilities could strengthen Ethiopia’s ability to defend its airspace and conduct military operations.

The planned S-400 systems would add a different capability. Designed to engage aircraft and certain missiles at long ranges, the systems could strengthen Ethiopia’s layered air defenses once delivered, installed and operational. However, the S-400 batteries have been announced as forthcoming acquisitions; their arrival and operational status have not yet been confirmed.

Together, the aircraft and air-defense systems would represent a substantial addition to Ethiopia’s military inventory. Their actual impact, however, will depend on training, maintenance, weapons availability, command integration and the ability to sustain operations over time.

Abiy presented the acquisitions as part of a national defense strategy intended to deter potential aggression and protect Ethiopian sovereignty. Yet the regional implications extend beyond the government’s stated objectives, particularly given the deteriorating relationship with Eritrea.

Renewed Conflict at Home

The aircraft are arriving as Ethiopia faces renewed fighting in Tigray, threatening to unravel the Pretoria peace agreement that ended the previous devastating war in November 2022. Government forces and their allies have clashed with Tigrayan fighters amid a broader breakdown in relations between Addis Ababa and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front.

The federal government is also fighting Fano insurgents in Amhara, where the conflict has continued since 2023. These simultaneous security challenges place substantial demands on military personnel, logistics and resources.

Ethiopia’s experience in the previous Tigray war demonstrated the growing importance of air power, including armed drones, in changing battlefield dynamics. The addition of modern fighters could expand the government’s options, but it cannot by itself resolve the political grievances and regional disputes driving the fighting.

Nor does the arrival of advanced aircraft establish that Ethiopia intends to use them against any particular domestic or foreign adversary. Their deployment and operational role remain matters for the Ethiopian authorities to clarify.

Eritrea and the Risk of Interstate Conflict

The most sensitive external dimension is Ethiopia’s deteriorating relationship with Eritrea. The two countries fought a devastating border war from 1998 to 2000 and later fought alongside one another against the TPLF during the 2020–2022 Tigray conflict. That wartime alignment has since collapsed.

Addis Ababa has accused Eritrea of supporting insurgent groups and sending troops into Ethiopian territory. Eritrea has rejected Ethiopia’s accusations and countered that Ethiopia’s pursuit of access to the Red Sea threatens regional stability. Reports of Eritrean troop movements inside northern Ethiopia have added to fears that a local conflict could develop into direct interstate hostilities, although the details of some alleged deployments remain disputed.

Ethiopia’s interest in gaining reliable access to the sea is an important source of tension. The country lost direct access to the Red Sea when Eritrea became independent in 1993 and has since relied on neighboring countries for maritime trade, primarily through Djibouti. Abiy has repeatedly emphasized the strategic importance of maritime access, while Eritrea regards its sovereignty and territorial integrity as fundamental issues.

Against this backdrop, the Su-35 acquisition could influence regional military calculations. Modern fighters may improve Ethiopia’s capacity to conduct air operations, while the planned S-400 systems could strengthen its protection against hostile aircraft and certain missile threats. But neither acquisition guarantees air superiority, and their effect would depend on the capabilities of opposing forces, operational readiness and the wider military balance.

The danger is not that the aircraft automatically make war inevitable. It is that additional military capabilities could raise the stakes in a confrontation already marked by deep mistrust, competing security claims and limited confidence between the two governments.

Russia Strengthens Its Strategic Position

The deal also illustrates Russia’s continuing role as a major defense supplier to African governments. Moscow has maintained military relationships across the continent while seeking to expand its diplomatic and economic partnerships.

For Ethiopia, purchasing Russian equipment offers an opportunity to diversify its military capabilities and reinforce ties with a major arms supplier. For Russia, the transaction deepens a relationship with one of Africa’s most populous countries at a time when Moscow is seeking stronger partnerships across the continent.

The acquisition nevertheless brings practical considerations. Sophisticated fighter aircraft require sustained investment in pilots, technicians, spare parts, maintenance infrastructure and training. Air-defense systems also require integration with radar networks and command structures. The long-term value of the equipment will therefore depend not only on delivery but on Ethiopia’s ability to maintain and operate it effectively.

The financial terms of the deal have not been disclosed, leaving unanswered questions about its overall cost and the resources required to support the new systems.

Military Modernization Cannot Guarantee Stability

Ethiopia’s new aircraft arrive at a moment when the country faces serious internal security challenges and a dangerous deterioration in relations with Eritrea. The acquisitions may strengthen national defense, but they also add a new factor to an already volatile regional security environment.

For civilians in Tigray and Amhara, the immediate concern remains the continuation of fighting, displacement and disruption to essential services. For neighboring countries, the concern is that renewed internal warfare could intersect with interstate tensions and trigger a broader crisis across the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region.

The key questions now concern how Ethiopia intends to deploy its new capabilities, when the S-400 systems will arrive and whether diplomatic efforts can prevent its disputes with Eritrea from escalating further. Ethiopia has strengthened its military arsenal, but the central challenge remains political as much as military: preventing internal conflicts and regional rivalries from converging into a wider war. Advanced aircraft and air-defense systems may alter military calculations, but they cannot substitute for credible diplomacy, political settlements and mechanisms to prevent miscalculation between neighboring.

Abdikarim H. Abdi Buh
Email: [email protected]

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