The question is what such a declaration communicates where perceptions can influence calculations long before voters arrive at polling stations The post 2027: Why Yari’s ‘APC till 2031’ claim rattled opposition appeared first on Vanguard News .
By Luminous Jannamike
When Senator Abdul’Aziz Yari returned to Abuja from an overseas trip and, barely 24 hours after his unveiling as Director-General of President Bola Tinubu’s Presidential Campaign Council, began talking about APC remaining in power beyond 2031, he was doing more than expressing confidence in his principal.
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The former Zamfara governor was, perhaps inadvertently, opening an early front in the battle over who gets to define the political mood ahead of the 2027 elections.
Ordinarily, a campaign official declaring that an incumbent will win re-election would hardly amount to political news. It is almost obligatory campaign language. But Yari went further. By projecting the All Progressives Congress, APC, beyond Tinubu’s possible second term, he was placing the ruling party’s dominance on a longer political horizon.
That is what appears to have drawn such swift and unusually sharp responses from the opposition.
Beyond 2027, a claim about political dominance
The larger question, therefore, is not whether Yari is entitled to believe that Tinubu will win. He is. The more important question is what such a declaration communicates in a political environment where perceptions of strength can influence the calculations of politicians long before voters arrive at polling stations.
Yari made the declaration at the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja, a day after he was unveiled as campaign DG. The timing is instructive.
By speaking so confidently about APC beyond 2031, he was not merely predicting an incumbent’s re-election. He was projecting the ruling party as the dominant political vehicle for the foreseeable future. That distinction matters.
In Nigerian politics, the perception of who is winning can sometimes become almost as consequential as the eventual votes. Politicians watch the direction of power. Potential defectors calculate where they believe opportunities lie. Party financiers assess which structure appears capable of winning. Aspirants consider whether it is worth investing in a difficult contest.
A party perceived as unbeatable can attract political momentum. A party perceived as losing can begin losing confidence, allies and resources before it loses an election.
That may explain why the PDP and African Democratic Congress, ADC, did not simply dismiss Yari’s statement as the predictable optimism of a newly appointed campaign chief.
The PDP’s National Publicity Secretary, Jungudo Haruna Mohammed, told Vanguard in Abuja that Yari appeared to be getting carried away by his appointment, urging him to concentrate on the assignment before looking beyond 2027.
“At the moment, he should focus more on how he can deliver on the mandate given to him before talking about 2031,” he said.
The message was carefully calibrated. The PDP was refusing to accept the psychological premise behind Yari’s declaration — that the opposition had already been reduced to spectators in a contest whose outcome was predetermined.
Jungudo was even more explicit in rejecting any suggestion that the opposition had conceded.
“As to whether the opposition has already conceded 2027 to Mr President or is even conceding power to the APC beyond 2031, no, no, no, not at all,” he maintained.
The response was not simply about correcting Yari. It was also about denying the ruling party the political advantage that can come from appearing to have psychologically defeated its opponents before the campaign has fully unfolded.
ADC went further, attacking not only Yari but the political foundation of his confidence.
Its National Publicity Secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi, told Vanguard that Yari was attempting to justify his new appointment.
“He’s one of those lying to the President. We understand he needs to justify his new appointment,” he said.
Abdullahi then widened the attack to APC itself, recalling the PDP’s former boast that it would rule Nigeria for 80 years.
“At least, the PDP was a real political party, not this SPV,” he added.
The ‘SPV’ description is more than an insult. It represents ADC’s attempt to puncture the very basis of APC’s claim to long-term dominance.
The argument is essentially that political control should not be confused with political strength.
‘What is APC winning with?’
ADC National Chairman Senator David Mark pushed that counter-narrative further through his media aide, Kola Ologbondiyan, describing Yari’s projection as ‘wishful thinking’ and saying it was at variance with political realities.
But the more strategic part of Mark’s intervention was his attack on the ruling party’s message.
“APC and its president, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, have no message to present to Nigerian voters. How can he fathom a win in an election where they can’t communicate with the people?” he asked.
If Yari’s message is essentially ‘we will win’, Mark’s response is: ‘What are you winning with?’
It is an attempt to move the argument away from inevitability and back to persuasion. The opposition wants voters to judge APC on its message, rather than simply accept the confidence of its campaign officials as evidence of electoral strength.
There is, however, substance behind the ruling party’s early mobilisation.
Tinubu is chairman of the campaign council, with Vice-President Kashim Shettima and APC National Chairman Nentawe Yilwatda as vice-chairmen. Imo State Governor Hope Uzodimma is secretary, while Yari serves as Director-General.
The composition is politically significant. It brings the presidency, vice-presidency, party leadership, a strategically important governor and an experienced former governor into the campaign structure.
Yari’s declaration can therefore be read partly as reassurance to APC supporters, a demonstration of loyalty to Tinubu, an effort to project confidence and, perhaps, a way of justifying the responsibility entrusted to him.
But projecting strength is not the same thing as possessing votes.
This is where the opposition’s own vulnerability enters the picture.
Its sharp reaction does not prove that APC is unbeatable. Neither does it prove that ADC or PDP believes APC is unbeatable. But the speed and intensity of the response suggest that opposition actors understand the danger of allowing the ruling party’s narrative to settle unchallenged. Because political perception has consequences.
If politicians begin to believe that APC is certain to retain power, some may adjust their calculations accordingly. If voters are repeatedly told that the contest is already decided, some may begin to see the opposition as incapable of winning. That is the psychological terrain on which Yari’s statement landed.
Yet the opposition cannot defeat the narrative of inevitability simply by denouncing it. It must replace it with a more convincing proposition about its own capacity, message and route to power.
History offers a warning
Nigeria’s political history contains enough examples to make claims of permanent dominance worth treating cautiously.
The PDP once projected confidence about remaining in power for decades. Political circumstances eventually changed.
That does not mean APC is destined to suffer the same fate. It simply demonstrates that projected permanence and political reality are different things.
The same caution applies to the opposition’s counter-claims. Saying that APC has no message does not make it so; ultimately, voters will determine whether the ruling party’s message is persuasive.
That is why the Yari controversy matters more than the words exchanged. The 2027 contest is already becoming a battle over perception: who looks strong, who appears weak, who can attract political allies and who can convince the political class that victory is within reach.
Yari has projected APC as a party looking beyond Tinubu’s second term. The opposition has moved quickly to challenge that image before it hardens into conventional wisdom.
The ballots will eventually determine who wins. But long before then, both sides will be fighting another contest; over who gets to define political reality in the minds of Nigerians. And that battle, unlike the election itself, has already begun.
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