Muhoozi is creating his own opponent in Odrek

CDF Muhoozi Kainerugaba

Balaam Barugahara’s anticorruption campaign over the months might have gained momentum, but everyone could still see that it was only targeting small fish.

So, citizens were not convinced about the campaign, and the big fish, ‘the thieves’, were also unmoved because they knew it was not about them. Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba, who is trying to build his political posture partly on being tough on corruption, had to capture a big fish and do it himself to cover this gap.

And perhaps there couldn’t be a better specimen than Odrek Rwabwogo. Rwabwogo was already perceived by some, courtesy of unverifiable rumours and speculations, as a political opponent of Muhoozi.

So they could hit two birds with one stone: demonstrate that the anti-corruption campaign could reach the powerful, while at the same time dealing with someone who could potentially become a political challenge.

I am not sure whether “framing” is the right word, because almost every Ugandan official can probably be found somewhere in the corruption story. Perhaps it is better to say that they released what they believed was evidence of corruption on the basis of which they could arrest him.

Unfortunately, it appears to have failed on both fronts. First, Rwabwogo was not arrested. When Mathew Bagonza was taken, one of the first things Rwabwogo reportedly did was go to President Museveni and ask whether the President had ordered the arrest. Museveni reportedly said he had not.

Whether intended or not, Rwabwogo was communicating that he had short and direct access to the President. He was not simply another official waiting to be picked up. He could walk to the President and ask questions.

More importantly, it showed that Muhoozi could not simply do whatever he wanted to him. It demonstrated a bit of power. The second thing that happened is that Rwabwogo was given a platform. He began explaining PACEID and showcasing what it had been doing.

That was not enough to completely answer the corruption allegations against him, but Ugandans live in a country where the minimum is rarely done. So, when something is well organised, well packaged and appears to work, people will notice.

PACEID’s presentation gave Rwabwogo an opportunity to demonstrate competence. He appeared articulate, prepared, and able to understand what he was doing. He got attention, which, in my view, he did not have before.

And attention in politics is actually difficult to get. It is the beginning of political significance. But for me, the most politically-significant outcome was that Muhoozi demonstrated that he could not handle Rwabwogo. If you threaten someone with arrest, you better arrest them.

Otherwise, you create a strange problem. The strategy by the Patriotic League of Uganda group has been to demonstrate strength. Arrest Besigye, Matembe and others. Subject them to the machinery of the state. Show that Muhoozi can clear whoever stands in his way.

Before the warnings against Rwabwogo, perhaps many people assumed that if Muhoozi wanted to arrest someone, he could. Now they have seen a limit. Suddenly, people who did not previously know that Rwabwogo had any political power may begin to believe that he does.

That is the thing. You may threaten to destroy someone’s political significance and end up creating it. I have spoken to some of my peers who believe that this could have been engineered. I tend to think the possibility deserves consideration.

Governments, in Uganda and elsewhere, manufacture their own opponents. Sometimes they use force against people they want to turn into enemies while ignoring people who may actually be a threat.

They give someone attention by targeting them, including with impunity. Tear gas, arrests, and intimidation, and before you know it, they are the talk of the town. They give them both the publicity and the legitimacy of being seen as a real threat.

The logic here is that if you have contained the serious opponents coming from different parts of the country, you do not necessarily want your preferred successor to enter the race alone. A succession project needs a contest. It needs an opponent.

But you do not want an organic opponent who arrives with an independent political base. You want someone you can build politically and defeat on your own terms. Let us be honest: Rwabwogo does not have a political base.

That is the first item on the checklist of any substantial political force. Muhoozi may not have an entirely independent one either, but he can inherit his father’s political support and machinery. In our cultural view, a son is his father’s heir.

Rwabwogo is a son-in-law. It is difficult to imagine him inheriting the same political estate simply because he married into it. So, if this is an artificial contest, it makes some sense. Build an opponent who can be defeated. Create the appearance of choice.

Then allow the preferred candidate to emerge stronger from the contest. But this better be the case. Because if it is not, Muhoozi may have accidentally built his own opponent. For now, Rwabwogo is the Christian, ideological man, businessman, the person speaking about development, now being hunted by Muhoozi.

Rwabwogo is the reasonable one. Muhoozi is the aggressor kind of narrative. That may not be the truth. However, politics is about perception, and in the eyes of some Ugandans, that is enough to create a very simple political picture.

lawelfrayer253@gmail.com

The writer is a researcher with Agora Center for Research

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