Unless something drastic happens in the next few days, petrol and diesel prices will increase in September — but it could have been much worse.
The latest fuel price review data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows petrol and diesel car drivers should brace for steep increases at the pumps in September 2026.
However, the increases will be significantly lower than anticipated a few weeks ago, when oil prices were elevated due to intensified conflict in the Middle East.
Based on South Africa’s fuel basket price and the dollar-to-rand exchange rate over the review period from 31 July to 25 August 2026, all fuel types showed under-recoveries for September.
In the case of an under-recovery, retail petrol and wholesale diesel prices in South Africa were lower than market prices, requiring an increase at the start of the next month.
If fuel prices were adjusted today and there was no change in the slate levy, the wholesale price of a litre of 50ppm diesel would increase by R3.04.
Service stations would be paying about R243 more for the 80 litres of diesel required to fill up a double-cab Toyota Hilux or Ford Ranger bakkie.
At the pumps, unleaded 95 and unleaded 93 prices would increase by R1.03 and R0.92 per litre, respectively.
That would increase the cost of filling up a 45-litre tank by R46.35 if the driver topped up with unleaded 95.
On the positive side, the outlook reflected a significant improvement over the expected adjustments at the start of the review period.
On 31 July 2026, the under-recovery for 50ppm diesel was about R5.48. Unleaded 95 and unleaded 93 petrol were showing under-recoveries of R1.30 and R1.19, respectively.
A minor reduction in global oil prices drove the slight improvement. However, the decrease was insufficient for a shift towards over-recoveries.
While oil prices have generally been a good indicator of where local petrol and diesel prices were heading, they only tell part of the story.
With local oil refining capacity plummeting over the last decade, South Africa has become increasingly reliant on refined petroleum imports, which are more expensive.
A stronger rand has also helped to blunt next month’s expected increases, but only by about 18 cents per litre for unleaded 95 petrol and 26 cents per litre for 50ppm diesel.
Fuel type31 July 2026
underrecovery25 August 2026
underrecoveryChange in expected increaseUnleaded 95 petrol (retail)R1.30R1.03
-21%
Unleaded 93 petrol (retail)R1.19R0.92
-23%
50ppm diesel (wholesale)R5.48R3.04
-45%
500ppm diesel (wholesale)R5.31R2.84
-47%
In the early days of the conflict between the US and Iran, there was concern that the disruption to shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz would cause fuel shortages in many countries.
However, something unprecedented occurred: China, the world’s largest net oil importer, drastically reduced its intake as the conflict escalated.
The country typically imports over 50 million tonnes of crude oil in a month, including in February and March 2026.
That was reduced to 38.5 million tonnes in April, 33.1 million tonnes in May, and 29.3 million tonnes in June.
Experts have floated several theories about how the country was able to achieve this without hurting its economy. Several believe it was possible due to a combination of factors, including:
A substantial strategic oil reserve
built up over many years, with an escalation in 2025. In Q1 2026, China’s oil reserve stood at 1,540 million barrels, dwarfing the US’s 413 million.
Increased electrification of vehicles
reducing domestic demand for petrol and diesel. Roughly half of all passenger vehicles and a quarter of trucks are electrified.
A ban on petroleum exports from Chinese refineries
increasing domestic availability while also dropping the amount of oil they processed.
The reduction freed up global supplies for other nations, helping avoid shortages and even greater price increases, likely stopping a recession in the process.
In the long term, there are positive indications that the situation in the Middle East could improve, offering hope of further fuel price relief.
Iran and Oman, the two countries on either side of the Strait of Hormuz, are engaged in talks to establish a temporary joint maritime corridor.
The initiative seeks to cover the future administration of the strait, information-sharing mechanisms, traffic management, and the provision of maritime and security services.
The agreement could create structured routes for the safe passage of ships through the critical ocean channel, even as tensions between the US and Iran remain high.
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