2027: What insecurity may do to APC’s bid

By Luminous Jannamike

ABUJA – The road to an NYSC orientation camp became a kidnapping route on October 1 when gunmen attacked buses near Umunoha in Mbaitoli Local Government Area of Imo State and abducted prospective corps members. Six days later, 20 of them were rescued.

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They were young Nigerians travelling for a national service programme. Their ordeal carried a political question far bigger than the incident itself: how safe are Nigerians on the roads they must use?

That question is beginning to sit alongside the economy, cost of living and governance in calculations for 2027. For President Bola Tinubu, insecurity is not yet an electoral verdict, but it is becoming a vulnerability the administration cannot afford to ignore.

The road to 2027 runs through security

Nigerians do not experience insecurity through statistics. They experience it when children leave for school, farmers head to their fields, traders travel, worshippers return home or families wait for abducted relatives.

The Imo incident carried significance beyond another kidnapping. It involved young Nigerians on a journey meant to symbolise national integration, yet their route became a site of fear and criminal control.

The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) says mass kidnappings averaged at least 100 incidents per quarter in 2025, compared with fewer than 70 per quarter in 2026 so far. The level is lower than last year’s peak, but still elevated.

ACLED also says armed bandits accounted for more than 80 per cent of recorded mass abductions since early 2025, with ransom increasingly important to financing such violence.

That leaves Tinubu facing a political test: can increased security spending and operations translate into a visible improvement in the everyday sense of safety?

Rescue is not the same as prevention

The administration has a substantial record of security interventions. It declared a nationwide security emergency in 2025, expanded recruitment, redeployed some police officers from VIP protection, backed forest guards and surveillance, and pushed intelligence-led operations and military modernisation. The 2026 budget proposed N5.41 trillion for defence and security.

Finding a kidnappers’ camp is not the same as preventing an abduction. Rescuing hostages is not the same as arresting abductors. Arresting suspects is not the same as dismantling the networks, financiers, informants and routes that make another attack possible.

The Imo episode raises operational questions. How did the attackers identify and stop the buses? Was the route regarded as vulnerable? Were intelligence agencies sharing information before the attack? How quickly could security forces move after the camp was located?

Human rights lawyer and activist, Deji Adeyanju, told Saturday Vanguard in Abuja that insecurity could become a serious political challenge for Tinubu because its consequences are deeply personal for Nigerians.

“Insecurity is not simply a question of statistics or the number of attacks recorded,” Adeyanju

Opposition sees an opening

Mark Adebayo, Head of the Directorate of Media and Communications of the Adewole Adebayo-Bugaje Presidential Campaign, said the crisis had serious implications for Tinubu’s re-election prospects and the legitimacy of the state.

“The political implications of Nigeria’s worsening security situation ahead of the 2027 general elections are profound, primarily threatening President Bola Tinubu’s reelection bid and undermining state legitimacy,” Adebayo told Saturday Vanguard.

He attributed the administration’s difficulties to what he described as uncoordinated counter-terrorism strategies, alleged military corruption and a perceived disconnect from grassroots realities.

Those are opposition arguments, and some wider performance and casualty claims require verification. Politically, however, the opposition needs to persuade voters that the government has not made them safer.

The voters will have the final say

Insecurity will not automatically deliver votes to the opposition. Its political effect could be subtler: punishment of the incumbent, declining confidence, or reduced turnout where voters fear violence.

A Yiaga Africa survey found that 84 per cent of respondents were willing or likely to vote, but 61 per cent said fear of violence could prevent them from doing so. In the North-East, the figure rose to 78 per cent. Security also ranked among the leading issues respondents wanted addressed.

Voters may punish a government they believe has failed to protect them. But insecurity may also suppress turnout without transferring those votes to an opponent.

The regional picture matters. In the North-East, insurgency and election-related violence remain major concerns. In the North-West, banditry and mass kidnapping dominate the security conversation. The North-Central faces attacks on farming communities and displacement, while parts of the South-East and South-South contend with road kidnapping, separatist violence and criminal networks.

For insecurity to become a decisive electoral liability, several developments may have to converge: continued high-profile abductions despite increased spending; attacks spreading into previously safer areas; slow or contradictory official responses; repeated rescues without arrests or prosecutions; continuing ransom payments; and a growing connection between insecurity, food prices and economic hardship.

Anger is not an electoral strategy. The opposition must convince voters that it can do better, finance security, improve intelligence coordination, protect highways and bring perpetrators to justice.

Tinubu still has time to change the argument. A sustained decline in attacks, safer highways, disruption of kidnapping finances, prosecutions and faster responses would give the administration something more powerful than another security announcement: evidence.

The political verdict will not be determined by budgets or troop numbers alone. It will depend on whether Nigerians see measurable improvements in their security before they cast their ballots.

For Tinubu, the challenge is therefore clear: turn security operations into safer roads, fewer abductions and greater confidence that the state can protect its citizens. If that happens, insecurity may remain a difficult issue without becoming a decisive electoral liability. If it does not, the opposition will have a ready-made case against the administration in 2027.

Vanguard News

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