Labour Opens Biggest Poll Lead Since 2024 Election as Andy Burnham’s Leadership Boosts Support

Labour has established its largest lead in opinion polls since the 2024 general election, with support for the party rising to 32 per cent under Andy Burnham’s leadership, according to the latest Ipsos survey.

The figure represents a five-percentage-point increase from September and puts Labour eight points ahead of the Conservatives, who have climbed to 24 per cent.

The Conservative Party recorded a three-point increase, placing it in second position for the first time since June 2025.

Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, has fallen three points to 20 per cent following a series of recent controversies. The Greens have also lost support, dropping five points to eight per cent amid an ongoing antisemitism controversy following their party conference earlier this month.

Kemi Badenoch Records Highest Ipsos Satisfaction Rating

The poll also found that Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has achieved her highest personal satisfaction rating since becoming Leader of the Opposition in November 2024.

Conducted between October 15 and 22, the survey found that 35 per cent of respondents were satisfied with her performance, an increase of seven percentage points from September.

Meanwhile, dissatisfaction with Badenoch fell seven points to 39 per cent, giving her the strongest satisfaction rating recorded by Ipsos since she took over the Conservative leadership.

Andy Burnham Receives Mixed Ratings as Green Leader Faces Growing Dissatisfaction

Burnham received a satisfaction rating of 35 per cent for his performance as Prime Minister, up four points from the previous month.

However, 45 per cent of respondents said they were dissatisfied with his performance, a decrease of one percentage point.

Green Party leader Zack Polanski recorded weaker personal ratings. Seventeen per cent of respondents said they were satisfied with his performance, down one point, while 56 per cent expressed dissatisfaction.

The dissatisfaction figure is the highest recorded for Polanski since he became Green leader in September 2025.

Conservatives and Labour Lose Fewer Voters to Rival Parties

The survey indicated that Labour and the Conservatives have improved their positions partly because fewer of their 2024 voters are switching to rival parties.

Among people who voted Conservative in the 2024 general election, 16 per cent now support Reform UK. This represents a decline from 22 per cent in September.

Labour is also retaining more of its previous supporters, with five per cent of its 2024 voters now backing the Greens, compared with 12 per cent last month.

The changes come as Reform UK loses support and the Conservatives move ahead of Farage’s party in the latest voting-intention figures.

Government Satisfaction Improves but Remains Deeply Negative

The poll recorded a net satisfaction score of minus 43 for the Government, its highest figure on this measure since Boris Johnson was prime minister in 2022.

Overall, 23 per cent of respondents said they were satisfied with the Government’s handling of the country, an increase of five percentage points.

Dissatisfaction fell four points to 66 per cent, although it remained substantially higher than the proportion expressing satisfaction.

Ipsos Director Warns Against Reading Too Much Into One Poll

Keiran Pedley, Ipsos’ UK director of politics, said the latest voting-intention figures reflected changes that had been emerging in the underlying data.

“Whilst the headline figures do show a striking change, they confirm a pattern we have been seeing in the underlying data for some time,” Pedley said.

He added that Labour under Burnham was consolidating support among left-leaning voters, while recent changes on the right had placed the Conservatives ahead of Reform UK.

Pedley cautioned against drawing firm conclusions from a single survey, noting that the Government faced a challenging Budget in the coming week.

He said British politics had remained volatile over the previous year, adding that the current political picture could look different again in six months.