Dwindling Nigeria-South Africa Flight Operations

Chinedu Eze

Stringent visa policy and restrictions placed between Nigeria and South Africa, negatively affected passenger movement between both countries, a development that led to the reduction in the number of Nigerians that travel to the southern African country.

It affected South Africa Airways (SAA) operations in Nigeria, as the airline recorded significant drop in passenger traffic, just as it forced the Nigerian carrier, Air Peace to suspend flight service to the Rainbow Nation.

The two countries had maintained robust relationship in the past with tour operators taking tourists to South Africa regularly and Nigerian corporates moving conferences to South Africa, but suddenly South Africa introduced constricting visa rules and even became highhanded and conceited in the way embassy officials in Nigeria were treating Nigerians who applied for visa.

The numbers of Nigerians who travel to South Africa began to ebb and Nigerian carrier experiencing continued reduction in passenger traffic due to the failure of many Nigerians to secure South Africa visa, stopped flights to Johannesburg.

In fact, international aviation industry analysis said the difficulty South Africa built around its visa for Nigerians was a way of forcing Nigerian carriers out of its market, as South Africans living in Nigeria constituted good load factor for the airline.

Ten years ago, precisely in 2016, more Nigerians travelled to South Africa and more South Africans travelled to Nigeria than in 2026.

The travel volumes between the two countries have drastically declined over the past decade due to strict visa bottlenecks, severe diplomatic tensions, and mass voluntary repatriation programmes triggered by renewed anti-immigrant protests in South Africa.

In 2016 South Africa was a booming destination for Nigerian travellers. According to South African Tourism (SAT) 65,599 Nigerians officially arrived in South Africa in 2016.

But in sharp contrast in 2026, monthly arrivals dropped significantly. For instance, data from Statistics South Africa, indicated that Nigeria only sent 1,459 tourists to South Africa in June 2026.

Instead of an influx of new travellers, 2026 has been defined by the Nigerian government evacuating and repatriating over 1, 500 citizens from South Africa due to safety deadlines imposed by anti-immigrant groups.

Also, in 2016, general inbound migration from South Africa processed by the Nigeria Immigration Service was over 612,000 foreign arrivals into Nigeria. South African business executives, telecom workers, and tourists made up a highly robust portion of these numbers during this economic peak.

But in 2026, diplomatic standoffs, retaliatory travel policies, and severe visa delays have severely restricted South African movement into Nigeria. Bilateral negotiations for visa-free agreements remain stalled, causing a drastic overall drop in corporate and leisure travel between the two regional giants.

The prolonged diplomatic impasse has led to reduced passenger demand, lower flight frequencies, and diminished load factors for airlines operating the Nigeria-South Africa route.

South African Airways (SAA) cut its flight frequency on the lucrative Lagos-Johannesburg route down to three or four times a week instead of operating profitable daily services.

Passenger loads on the route dropped significantly, often falling below 60 per cent capacity during peak periods of visa backlogs and restrictions.

Industry stakeholders noted that visa bottlenecks disproportionately hurt Nigerian carriers (such as Air Peace), which faced low passenger numbers because travelers could not secure timely entry visas, forcing adjustments or suspensions on the route.

Frustrated by visa delays and denials, many Nigerian business and leisure travelers redirected their trips to more accessible African destinations like Rwanda and Kenya.

In 2025, Nigeria and South Africa agreed to resolve their visa issues. During high-level political consultations held in Abuja on October 21, 2025, the two African economic powerhouses formally reached an accord to dismantle long-standing visa bottlenecks.

The meeting was co-chaired by the then Nigeria’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Ambassador Bianca Odumegwu-Ojukwu, and South Africa’s Deputy Minister of International Relations and Cooperation, Thandi Moraka. The key highlights of the diplomatic breakthrough include simplified Visa Application Processes, that both nations committed to streamlined application frameworks to erase historical frictions, such as delayed passport returns and extensive waiting periods.

They agreed on five-year multiple-entry visas, as South Africa operationalised a framework offering five-year multiple-entry visas tailored specifically for qualified Nigerian business professionals and tourists.

In a major policy shift following foundations laid at the late 2024 Bi-National Commission, South Africa finalised mechanisms allowing Nigerian tourists to apply for visas digitally without needing to physically surrender their passports during the initial evaluation process.

They also agreed on the establishment of a Joint Implementation Committee to guarantee that these visa reforms move past rhetoric, both delegations set up a quarterly monitoring committee to oversee compliance and continuously improve economic and people-to-people integration.

Some of these agreements may have been implemented as the South Africa Airways Country Manager, Mrs. Kemi Leke Bamtefa, who spoke to THISDAY confirmed. Bamtefa said obtaining South Africa visa was no more difficult and also confirmed that Nigerians were now getting long-term visas from two to five years.

She also said that South Africa Airways is doing well, having increased its frequency from three times weekly to four times weekly.

Bamtefa noted that South Africa Airways does not operate point to point; rather, from its hub in Johannesburg it connects to many Southern African and East African destinations. It also operates long-haul flights to Perth, Australia, Sao Paulo, Brazil.

So, from the O R Tambo International Airport, Johannesburg, SAA operates to Kinshasa, Lubumbashi in Democratic Republic of Congo, Lusaka, Zambia, Mauritius, Windhoek, Namibia, Harare, Zimbabwe and Gaborone, Botswana in addition to other destinations in West Africa.

Also, the Trade Relations Manager, Nigeria and Ghana, South Africa Tourism, Mohammed Tanko, told THISDAY that Nigerians were now getting visas; that visa operations were very positive and now applicants have two choices of submitting through VSF or submit online and this has improved the number of people that travel with SAA.

“To apply for the visa, you don’t have to submit your passport, in case you need your passport for other travels. After the adjudication and if they acquiesce to your request, they will call you to bring your passport,” he explained.

But nevertheless, reports indicate that xenophobia severely impacted the passenger traffic and operations of South African Airways on its core West African routes, particularly on its highly lucrative paths connecting Johannesburg with Lagos, Nigeria, and Accra, Ghana. Recurring waves of anti-immigrant sentiment and violence in South Africa—most notably a severe escalation in mid-2026—shattered consumer confidence and decimated leisure and business travel demand from West Africa.

Reports also noted that amid heightened safety concerns, passenger numbers on West African routes plunged significantly. Prior to major operational disruptions and the pandemic, SAA operated daily flights (up to seven times a week) to Lagos. Post-pandemic recovery efforts to rebuild this momentum were halted by renewed xenophobic tension, forcing SAA to scale back its operations to just three weekly flights, with aircraft frequently departing half-empty.

But with the improvement in visa process and the removal of diplomatic bottlenecks, there is hope that South Africa Airways will move from the current four flights a week to daily flights.