The last 15 per cent: Uganda nears HIV elimination

An HIV diagnosis felt like a swift, irreversible death sentence for Ugandans who lived through the 1980s and 1990s.

Today, inside clinic wards across the country, that terror has yielded to quiet routine. New data from the 2025 Uganda Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (UPHIA) reveals that Uganda is closing in on its target to end the HIV pandemic by 2030.

Among adults living with HIV who know their status and take antiretroviral therapy (ART), an overwhelming 96.5 per cent have suppressed the virus, rendering it undetectable in their blood and untransmittable to sexual partners.

Overall viral suppression among all adults living with HIV rose to 86 per cent, up from 75.4 per cent in 2020.

“You recall there was a time when testing positive was like a death sentence,” Minister of Health Dr. Chris Baryomunsi said at the Uganda Media Centre.

“But thankfully, with antiretroviral drugs available, even if you test positive, you live normally like anyone else.”

Yet, behind the headline success lies a dangerous gap at the front door of care. While Uganda has nearly met the global target for treating those already diagnosed, roughly 14.7 per cent of HIV-positive adults, approximately 15,000 people, remain entirely unaware that they carry the virus.

Because they do not know their status, they cannot access free life-saving medication, leaving them vulnerable to illness and inadvertently spreading the infection. A second vulnerability divides generations.

While older adults achieve viral suppression rates above 93 per cent, viral suppression among young women aged 15 to 24 sits at just 64.1 per cent. Health officials attribute this lower rate to inconsistent pill-taking, driven by stigma, lack of privacy, and inadequate youth-friendly support.

Civil society leaders warn that national statistics must not breed complacency. Flavia Kyomukama, Executive Director of the National Forum of People Living with HIV/AIDS (NAFOPHANU), points out that Uganda still registers roughly 36,648 new HIV infections every year.

“It has been over 30 years since HIV was first reported in Uganda, but it is sad that despite all the awareness, we still get such new infections every year,” Kyomukama says.

She notes that recent funding cuts to USAID and donor-backed programmes have disrupted community peer networks that previously helped young people disclose their status and stick to daily treatment.

Regional disparities also persist. HIV prevalence ranges from 8 per cent in the South Western region and over 7 per cent in Central Uganda, down to 1.3 per cent in Karamoja, differences the Ministry of Health plans to investigate further.

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