Zimbabwe braces itself for a ‘super’ El Niño

The El Niño could have major impacts on food systems in Zimbabwe, but the big question is, how can resilience be built?

An El Niño event is the warm phase of a climate pattern in the tropical Pacific that releases heat from the ocean into the atmosphere, which temporarily raises global temperatures and reshapes rainfall and extreme weather around the world. These are regular occurrences and have been causing climate disruptions for many thousands of years. They are easier to predict than day-to-weather changes and other droughts, as the causal mechanisms are clearer. The current El Niño, starting in June and likely to run well into 2027, has been registered by climate scientists as severe. It will likely result in drought in southern Africa, and potentially wetter conditions in East Africa.

Fortunately, the past couple of seasons have produced reasonably good crop outputs and many have well-filled grain stores. Although not for everyone – too much rain last season caused waterlogging and leaching in many areas and people lost their crops. National food storage has been made a priority and many huge grain silos have been built around the country. Most farmers keep a store of grain at home, preferring to rely on their own sources than national provisioning, but many must buy maize on a regular basis and in droughts things can be tight.

El Niño seasons in Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe has much experience of El Niño droughts over the years. Some have been devastating. The following table (thanks to co-pilot and with some links to our past work) summarises the patterns including some of the predictions for the forthcoming season.

El Niño Season

Severity Level

Rainfall & Environmental Impact

Agricultural & Economic Impact

1982/1983

Super El Niño Severe drop in seasonal rainfall across multiple regions. Maize yields collapsed; livestock moved. Areas with drought-tolerant crops fared better.

1991/1992

Severe Historic, catastrophic drought across the entire country. Over one million cattle died. Massive crop failures triggered a severe nationwide food-security crisis.

1997/1998

Super El Niño Global “Super El Niño,” but Zimbabwe was largely spared due to timely, localized rainfall. Near-average regional harvests; farmers who utilized diversified crops like millet and sorghum performed well.

2015/2016

Super El Niño Worst regional drought in 35 years. Critical water infrastructure failed; Lake Kariba dropped to just 0.8% usable capacity. Over 12,000 boreholes ran dry. Widespread livestock deaths and severe crop failure plunged millions into food insecurity.

2023/2024

Severe Short, delayed rainfall season characterized by extreme heat waves and prolonged mid-season dry spells. National Disaster declared. Total agricultural damages exceeded US$363 million, with over 44,000 cattle lost and $607 million in maize production deficits.

2026/2027

(Current Forecast)

Strong / Potential Super El Niño High probability (88%–94%) of below-normal rainfall and elevated temperatures from October 2026 to March 2027. Domestic grain yields are projected to fall 42% (down to 1.6M tons). Government actively deploying a multi-pillar resilience plan, expanding irrigation, and lifting grain import restrictions.

Many people remember these periods. They reshaped rural livelihoods dramatically, either through loss of cattle or the collapse of crop production, or in the worst cases both. Our 1996 book, Hazards and Opportunities, captured the experience of the 1991-92 drought and its consequences and my 1990 thesis compared the impacts of the 1982-84 and 1986-87 on livestock populations in Zvishavane district, for example.

Policy responses

Drought is therefore not a new phenomenon. So how has policy responded given all these experiences over time? There have been many initiatives – grain storage, as mentioned above; the promotion of drought resistant crops; the building of irrigation schemes; fodder production projects, soil and water conservation efforts and, most recently, the push for no-till conservation farming (pfumvudza/intwasa). They all have had some impact, but drought vulnerable maize remains the dominant crop as millets and sorghums are deemed too labour intensive and prone to bird damage; irrigation schemes have had a chequered history, with many lying in disrepair; collective fodder production projects have been important, but it is individual household strategies that are most significant and pfumvudza certainly works to harvest water and conserve nutrients, but only on incredibly small areas.

Drought proofing through farmer-led irrigation

So, what is needed? My bet is on supporting the massive growth of farmer-led irrigation. Individual initiatives using cheap Chinese pumps, allowing the growing of vegetables, green maize and other crops along rivers, near small dams and at homesteads where pumped water is available. With solar energy for pumping and with pump prices declining by the year, this has revolutionised crop farming across the country, but especially in the drought-prone semi-arid areas. Not only has it allowed a shift to a more commercial production of horticulture, but it has allowed the cropping period to stretch across the dry season. Droughts become less of an issue, although the challenge now is the management of water in rivers and groundwater that becomes seriously depleted, not only due to drought but also heavy use.

Still, though, government and aid agencies focus on irrigation schemes. These have their place, but they rely on on-going maintenance and collective governance, both challenges when funds are limited and the institutions for management are absent. Returns from small plot farmer-led irrigation are far higher, and issues of sustainability less of a concern. Supporting an irrigation scheme is however much more visible – it can be part of an aid project, can be opened by an official and will appear in the newspapers.

By contrast, the farmer-led irrigation revolution goes unsung and hidden. This is by-and-large a good thing. But such efforts can be supported, including via backing for local manufacturing hubs to adapt and repair imported equipment; the support of irrigators in extending and upgrading their markets and through financial services to provide cheap loans for improving equipment, digging boreholes and maintaining waterways and dams. Less high profile than cutting the ribbon at a scheme opening, but rather more effective, in my view.

When the drought strikes, hopefully not as severe as predicted, then it will be the diffuse network of irrigators who will be key, along with those who have developed ways of harvesting and storing water, alongside the government programmes of pfumvudza and the rest.

Building rural resilience

Many uncertainties remain but building the resilience of rural systems and the ability of local people to respond to drought – likely to increase in intensity and frequency beyond El Niño events due to climate change – will be key.

Land reform has helped, allowing a significant number of smallholders to farm on larger plots with greater opportunities for crop diversification and the ability to generate surplus to invest in irrigation and other drought-proofing measures. Land reform areas supply food in times of need to others in communal areas and towns, but with lower outputs these sharing and market relations contract. Beyond the technical investments in storage silos, new crop and fodder varieties, irrigation systems and water conservation measures, it is people’s own capacities and knowledges that will build ‘resilience from below’. The local knowledge of early warning signs, the networking among people to provide food at times of needed rooted in village moral economies, the role of rural businesses in supply credit and tiding people over and the local leaders who ensure that no one goes hungry. This season could be tough, but ultimately these are the grounded social relations that make the difference.

This blog was written by Ian Scoones and first appeared on Zimbabweland