Who speaks for Uganda? The Türkiye dispute and cost of personalizing foreign policy

President Museveni meeting with the Turkish Ambassador to Uganda, Mehmet Fatih Ak in Mpigi

Last week, Uganda presented Türkiye with several very different faces. On September 16 and 17, First Deputy Prime Minister Rebecca Kadaga was in Istanbul participating in the AFEX 2026 Business Forum and Expo, promoting trade, investment and economic cooperation between Türkiye and Africa.

On September 18, supporters of the Patriotic League of Uganda (PLU) marched on the Turkiye Embassy in Kampala demanding the return of Ugandan blogger Fred Kajjubi Lumbuye.

The same day, President Yoweri Museveni met Türkiye’s ambassador in Uganda. The following day, the Uganda People’s Defence Forces (UPDF) announced the immediate suspension of all defence and military cooperation with Türkiye.

There is nothing inherently contradictory about a state pursuing commercial relations while managing a dispute in another sphere. States routinely compartmentalise their relationships. But when economic engagement, presidential diplomacy, political mobilisation and military policy send conflicting signals to the same foreign government, a fundamental question arises:

Who speaks for Uganda?

The immediate dispute concerns Lumbuye, an online commentator based in Türkiye whose broadcasts have fiercely criticised President Museveni’s administration and his son, Chief of Defence Forces (CDF) General Muhoozi Kainerugaba.

PLU supporters demonstrating against Turkiye

Ugandan authorities want him returned to face criminal charges, while his asylum and immigration status in Türkiye has been central to the dispute since his detention there in 2021.

Following the September 18 PLU demonstration, for which the embassy had announced a temporary closure, the UPDF suspended all defence cooperation until outstanding issues were resolved. That is where a bilateral disagreement becomes a critical question of governance and statecraft.

The Dispute Did Not Begin with Lumbuye

It would be an error to treat Lumbuye as the root of the Uganda-Türkiye dispute.

In April, Muhoozi publicly demanded that Türkiye pay Uganda a $1 billion “security dividend,” arguing that Uganda had borne a heavy military burden in Somalia while Turkish commercial interests benefited from the resulting stability. He threatened diplomatic consequences before the posts were deleted.

Uganda has been a major military contributor to African Union missions in Somalia since 2007 and is entitled to ask how its sacrifices translate into strategic benefits.

However, Uganda deployed not as a unilateral actor, but as part of a multinational African Union peace-support operation, alongside countries including Burundi, Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti and Sierra Leone, with a United Nations mandate and international support.

If Türkiye benefits from Somalia’s relative stability, is it uniquely indebted to Uganda? Would the same logic entitle all other troop-contributing countries to compensation?

A collective, internationally supported peace mission does not automatically create a bilateral financial debt owed by Türkiye to Uganda. Public ultimatums narrow the room for negotiation; diplomacy requires converting strategic assets into negotiated advantages through formal institutional channels.

The Kadaga Paradox

While PLU was preparing to demonstrate in Kampala, Kadaga was in Istanbul urging partnerships to advance investment and production.

First Deputy Prime Minister Rebecca Kadaga was in Istanbul

Pursuing trade while reviewing defence ties is not inherently contradictory, but the conflicting signals create severe institutional ambiguity:

• The First Deputy Prime Minister was in Istanbul seeking deeper commercial ties.
• The President was conducting executive diplomacy with the Turkish ambassador.
• A political organisation chaired by the CDF was mobilising street protests against the embassy.
• The military, led by the same CDF, formally suspended defence cooperation.

For Ankara, the practical question is obvious: which signal represents the official policy of the Republic of Uganda?

This ambiguity is particularly dangerous in a volatile Horn of Africa. Türkiye maintains a substantial presence in Somalia spanning diplomacy, infrastructure and military training. Furthermore, following Israel’s recognition of Somaliland in December 2025, regional dynamics have become increasingly complex. Türkiye strongly rejected the recognition and reaffirmed Somalia’s territorial integrity.

Navigating an arena where Turkish, Arab, African and Western interests intersect requires disciplined statecraft, not personalised declarations.

Extradition and Civilian Justice

Uganda is entitled to seek the return of citizens accused of criminal offences, but extradition is a legal process, not a test of military strength or political pressure.

Foreign jurisdictions must evaluate the credibility and due process of the requesting nation’s legal system. Uganda’s post-election environment—including high-profile legal actions involving political figures such as Dr Kizza Besigye and Erias Lukwago, and Robert Kyagulanyi’s continued absence from Uganda—forms part of the wider context in which foreign authorities assess requests involving political critics.

The most effective way to strengthen extradition requests is not to demonstrate outside embassies, but to reinforce international trust in Uganda’s civilian justice system.

The Problem of “Three Hats”

The institutional difficulty becomes sharper when considering Muhoozi’s leadership of the demonstration. As both PLU Chairman and Chief of Defence Forces, he directed the protest, congratulated the demonstrators, and warned Türkiye via X:

“I thank the great patriotic masses of PLU for their demonstration at the Turkish Embassy yesterday. They proved that they have the spirit of lions. The Turks will comply with all our demands. If they don’t life will become untenable for them in Uganda.”

This overlap obscures key constitutional boundaries:

1. The CDF directs a political organisation to confront a foreign embassy.
2. The organisation conducts the demonstration.
3. The CDF publicly warns the foreign state of consequences.
4. The armed forces announce the suspension of military cooperation.

To any foreign government, distinguishing between the political organisation, its chairman and the commander of Uganda’s armed forces becomes nearly impossible.

When Personalities Substitute for Institutions

Former state minister Dr Pereza Ahabwe recently captured this growing concern, pointing to Local Government minister Balaam Barugahara and drawing a broader comparison with Muhoozi to argue that officials are increasingly exercising powers outside their defined mandates.

Ahabwe’s concern underscores a vital constitutional principle: authority is not merely the power to enforce an outcome, but the lawful exercise of power within a defined mandate subject to oversight.

The reputational cost of stepping outside these boundaries is already visible abroad. When senior military figures conduct diplomacy through social media and political rallies, it invites public derision and undermines state prestige.

Restoring Coherence to Statecraft

A sovereign state normally speaks through established channels: the Presidency provides executive direction, Foreign Affairs conducts diplomacy, the military manages defence, and Parliament provides oversight. External communications must converge around a clear national position.

Uganda and Türkiye share decades of cooperation across trade, aviation, investment and defence. Foreign policy cannot sustainably be conducted through social media declarations, street demonstrations and reactive military decisions.

Uganda possesses substantial strategic assets, but military weight does not automatically translate into negotiating weight. Foreign governments must be able to distinguish, without ambiguity, between official state policy, military actions, political movements and personal commentary.

If that distinction remains obscure, the consequences will ultimately be borne not by the individuals conducting the quarrel, but by the Ugandan state and its citizens.

The writer is an advocate, former member of parliament, and former minister of state for Foreign Affairs.

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