Africa’s smartphone market shrank 12% year‑on‑year in Q1 2026, as rising memory prices drove up device costs and squeezed entry‑tier availability, according to Counterpoint Research’s Market Monitor Service.

The downturn, despite seasonal demand drivers such as school reopening, Valentine’s Day, and Ramadan, reshaped the region’s top-five rankings.

Mobile brands

Samsung reclaimed the number one spot from Tecno, while Honor overtook Infinix, both benefiting from stronger inventories amid widespread shortages.

“Price increases driven by rising memory costs were enough to dampen market performance and reshuffle the rankings among the top five brands,” said research analyst Ahmad Shehab.

Price increases

Shehab noted that Africa’s extreme price sensitivity magnified the impact, with average monthly incomes as low as $177 (R2 900) in Malawi and $193 (R3 173) in Rwanda.

“Even modest price increases can become significant barriers to purchase, particularly with taxes and levies added on top,” Shehab added.

Inventory decisions taken months earlier proved decisive. Samsung filled gaps left by Tecno and other Chinese brands, such as Itel and Realme, while Honor leveraged its Middle East playbook to position itself as an affordable‑premium alternative.

Honor’s shipments surged 98% year‑on‑year, with growth concentrated in South Africa, Egypt and Nigeria through carrier partnerships and event sponsorships.

Good news

However, despite the overall contraction, 5G adoption accelerated, supported by expanding infrastructure and regulatory frameworks.

According to the report, coverage reached 58% in South Africa and 48% in Botswana, while penetration in shipment volumes climbed 19% year‑on‑year, driven mainly by Samsung and Honor.

Adoption remained concentrated in higher‑income markets such as Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt and South Africa, where policies have promoted 5G expansion.

Component costs

Counterpoint’s report underscores how rising component costs and inventory management are reshaping Africa’s smartphone landscape.

While Samsung and Honor capitalised on strong stock positions, the broader market remains vulnerable to price shocks, with entry‑tier consumers bearing the brunt.