2027: How PAPCC plans to rescue the economy, unveils sectoral delivery framework

As the 2027 general elections take centre stage and expectations of political office candidates dominate economic discourse, a look at individuals and party manifestos has become a bible recited on a daily basis. Political analysis, however, weighs in to consider the rhetoric, or rather blueprint, of both the old and new arrivals in Nigerian politics.

Consequently, it is worth noting that few of the new arrivals in the presidential contest outscored the old horses in terms of economic blueprints worthy of revamping fragmented and distorted economic policies in Nigeria.

The Peter Agada Presidential Campaign Council (PAPCC) of the Young Progressives Party (YPP) is currently inundating Nigerians with its 2027 presidential campaign Policy Paper 2026, outlining a data-driven framework across all economic sectors.

Major sectors in its first phase of party development blueprint include the petroleum gas sector, agriculture sector, health, education sector, power, SMEs, security and housing, to mention but a few.

ENERGY SECTOR

The sector targets demand, transport subsidies, refining capacity targets and fiscal reforms. This, however, summarises the campaign’s core philosophy on energy reform. Arch Dr Peter Agada, in a recent media chat with The Sun, said, “Don’t just remove the subsidy – replace the support.” Agada further opined that his policy thrust and implementation templates are not only well thought out but have been demonstrated from his professional experience as an architect-builder.

A breakdown of the policy statement shows a detailed implementation template, with empirical data and a spelled-out workflow.

TRANSPORTATION

As the backbone of every viable economy, the country should operate a seamless registered vehicle fleet, secured by registration policy and regulations.

The policy document will map out a planning baseline for Nigeria’s registered and active vehicle population at 11.8-12.2 million, citing historical estimates from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

According to the policy document and in line with NBS, commercial vehicles make up approximately 55%-60% of the active fleet, private vehicles account for about 38%-40%, and government/diplomatic vehicles represent the remaining fraction. By body type, sedans constitute 45% of passenger approximations, SUVs/crossovers 20%, trucks/heavy-duty vehicles/buses about 20%, and commercial light haulage 15%.

Federal Road Safety Corps (FRSC) plate production figures outlined in the paper detail registration flow changes between 2023 and 2024:

It indicates that private motor vehicles have increased from 206,060 to 247,199 (+41,139).

Commercial motor vehicles have also increased from 52,353 to 83,438 (+31,085).

On government motor vehicles, the group has also increased from 5,120 to 39,661 (+34,541).

Also, government articulated has increased from 500 to 560 (+60).

Articulated has decreased from 625 to 79 (-546).

Again, that of the military/paramilitary decreased from 539 to 431 (-108).

The data details that the Federal Government vehicle purchase has increased from 1,542 to 5,862 (+4,320).

That of the diplomatic corps has also increased from 32 to 45 (+13).

Looking at the vehicle importers and dealers, it has increased from 2,104 to 3,476 (+1,372).

To this end, the motor vehicle subtotal rose from 270,231 to 381,942 (+111,711).

Motorcycle subtotal fell from 230,121 to 178,251 (-51,870).

Total (including motorcycles and reprints) increased from 500,738 to 560,523 (+59,785).

Another data, the FRSC’s Q1 2026 digest, logged 86,725 motor-vehicle plates and 98,251 motorcycle plates.

The document cited heavy geographical concentration in Lagos State and the FCT, followed by Rivers, Kano and Kaduna.

DOMESTIC FUEL CONSUMPTION & REFINING TARGETS

The YPP Presidential Campaign Council blueprint resolved that petroleum consumption and domestic refining will target current national fuel consumption patterns across major product categories, including PMS (petrol) with an average of 47.4m L/day (331.8m L weekly, 1.42bn L monthly, 17.3bn L annually).

AGO (diesel) averages about 16.2m L daily (113.4m L weekly, 486m L monthly, 5.91bn L annually).

ATK + DPK (aviation fuel and kerosene) combined average of 2.5-3.0m L daily (21m L weekly, about 90m L monthly, 1.09bn L annually).

Lagos, Delta, Rivers and Kano collectively account for over half of total national truck-out volumes.

It pointed out that for the nation to fulfil aggregate national demand internally, the document estimates a required domestic crude intake of 550,000-600,000 bpd, based on standard refining yields of roughly 75 litres of gasoline and 40 litres of diesel per 42-gallon barrel. Refining at this scale is expected to generate 15%-20% in heavy ends and light gases (approximately 80,000-100,000 bpd of feedstock) to support domestic naphtha, bitumen/asphalt and petrochemical value chains.

NNPC PRIVATISATION STRATEGY

The paper highlights existing domestic refining capacity and ownership structures. It is noted that the NNPC Ltd refineries nominal capacity is 445,000 bpd across Port Harcourt I and II, Warri and Kaduna.

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which is an operational private refinery, is presently at a capacity of 650,000 bpd.

Modular refineries include Aradel/Ogbele in the capacity of 11,000 bpd, while Waltersmith records 10,000 bpd, OPAC 10,000 bpd and Edo Refinery is holding 6,000 bpd.

The paper notes that Nigeria LNG Limited (NLNG) operates under a joint venture model where NNPCL holds 49%, Shell Gas BV holds 25.6%, TotalEnergies holds 15% and Eni holds 10.4%.

Architect Dr Peter Agada stated that he will build on this model to become the next president. He, however, proposes selling 51% of the government’s stake in NNPC to three or four international partners to transition NNPC into an NLNG-style operational framework.

CRUDE SALES AND DEBT SERVICES

Agada, in the developmental blueprint, insisted that fiscal constraints approximately stand at 14.66% of Nigeria’s daily crude allocation, amounting to 213,000-220,000 bpd, which is tied up in servicing forward crude-backed facilities across four major arrangements. These include Project Gazelle, Project Yield, Project Leopard and Eagle Export Funding.

The paper specifically details Project Gazelle, which was expanded in mid-2026 through a $4.5 billion refinancing arrangement termed Project Gazelle 2 to refinance 2023 outstanding balances and free up reserves. The policy proposes renegotiation for facilities where repayment values exceed 130% of the principal loan received or where repayment progress exceeds elapsed loan duration by more than 25 percentage points, while requiring National Assembly approval for all future crude hypothecation agreements.

PROPOSED CAPPED FUEL SUPPORT FRAMEWORK

To replace universal subsidies with verified, identity-linked support via a Location/Logistics Identification Number (LIN) card, the policy introduces capped, multi-tiered price bands, including PMS for commercial transport (250 litres maximum band per cycle).

It said firstly that consumers pay 120 litres, which is 60% of the retail price; secondly, it pays 80 litres, which consumers pay 80% of the retail price.

For 50 litres, consumers pay 90% of the retail price.

Above 250 litres: 100% of the full retail price.

The list runs thus:

Targeted volume: 40% of PMS consumption (about 18.96 million litres per day / 6.92 billion litres annually).

AGO for commercial haulage (400 litres maximum band):

First 180 litres: consumer pays 60% of retail price.

Next 120 litres: consumer pays 80% of retail price.

Final 100 litres: consumer pays 90% of retail price.

Above 400 litres: 100% of the retail price.

Targeted volume: 55% of diesel consumption (about 9.075 million litres per day / 3.25 billion litres annually).

Aviation fuel and household kerosene support:

Domestic commercial aviation: pays 70% of retail price for the first 350 L, 80% for the next 200 L, 90% for the final 150 L and 100% above 700 L.

Household kerosene: 20% subsidy on up to 70 litres monthly.

Targeted volume: 35% of combined ATK/DPK pool (1.05 million litres per day / 381.5 million litres annually).

CLEAN ENERGY AND ROLLOUT PLAN

Dr Peter Agada’s Campaign Council estimates that the combined package of targeted fuel support, CNG conversion, hybrid fleets and electric mobility adoption can lower public transportation costs by more than 45%.

The proposed implementation roadmap spans four structured phases, including Phase 0-30 days: validate consumption baselines, audit crude commitments, map eligible transport categories and publish implementation rules.

The second phase is 31-60 days, with register and verify operators through LIN, accredit stations, integrate refinery/depot reporting and launch pilot corridors.

Phase three is 61-100 days, where the scale targeted PMS/AGO support, open aviation/kerosene windows and publish real-time performance dashboards.

It said Year 1 should expand domestic refining reliability, CNG corridors, fleet transition financing and petrochemical supply chains.

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