Lula pulls ahead of Bolsonaro in Brazil’s presidential runoff race

In a dramatic swing as the tally unfolded, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva moved ahead of right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a runoff race, with half of the votes counted and ballots from left-leaning states in Mr Lula’s northeastern stronghold beginning to ⁠pour in.

Pollsters said higher-than-expected turnout appeared to have boosted Mr Lula.

The federal electoral court has yet to call a ‌victor, but Mr Lula allies were already claiming victory on social media.

The early phases of Brazil’s vote count often favour conservative candidates, who ⁠typically post strong numbers first, while ‌leftists tend to gain ground as returns from poorer, populous northeastern states ⁠in ‌the northeast arrive later.

Mr Lula initially opened with momentum, then saw Mr Bolsonaro overtake him, before Mr Lula regained the lead with around 50% of votes counted ⁠by 8:30pm in Brasilia (11.30pm Irish time).

A victory for Mr Bolsonaro, 45, would extend a wave of right-wing wins across Latin America among candidates friendly to US President Donald Trump, while a fourth mandate for Mr Lula would be seen as a counterweight to Washington’s influence in the region after his government pushed back on US trade and security policies.

Lula supporters at the Rocinha favela in Rio de Janeiro

Still, the contest risks being eclipsed by a legal fight after Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin, formerly Mr Lula’s lawyer, granted a campaign request to extend voting, citing public transportation problems in three cities in the state of Bahia.

Mr Zanin issued the decision close to the election’s 5pm Brasilia time (8pm Irish time) cutoff, triggering confusion because some polling stations had already closed.

In a follow-up ruling, Mr Zanin said those stations would stay shut so authorities could start counting their votes, but polling stations that had not closed after the official cutoff could continue receiving voters for an additional two hours.

Mr Zanin’s decision prompted the electoral court, or TSE, to halt the count for two hours.

Pause adds uncertainty

The surprise extension adds a new layer of uncertainty to an electoral process still coping with the aftershocks of 2022, when Jair Bolsonaro refused to concede defeat to Mr Lula.

Bolsonaro’s supporters later stormed government buildings to protest the outcome, and Bolsonaro received a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup.

Two legal experts told Reuters the longer voting window, along with claims of disrupted public transportation, could become the basis for court challenges.

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva started strongly in the runoff vote

“Depending on the election result, there is a possibility that the losing side might attempt to contest the outcome, arguing that many people were unable to vote even with the extended deadline,” said Vera Chemim, a constitutional lawyer in Sao Paulo.

On a livestream on his YouTube channel, the senator’s brother Eduardo Bolsonaro challenged why the Supreme Court had intervened in a process overseen by the country’s federal electoral court.

“Strange, isn’t it?” he said. “It’s hard to imagine what the legal basis for this could possibly be. It doesn’t inspire credibility.”

Mr Lula had urged electoral authorities to prolong voting in at least nine states after his campaign alleged some officials curtailed election-day public transportation, limiting voters’ ability to reach polling places.

Earlier, a court in Bahia — a northeastern bastion for Mr Lula — ordered the arrest of a senior transportation official in the city of Salvador amid allegations he directed a reduction in the city’s bus fleet.

Speaking before the ruling, Mr Lula said “something abominable is happening” in this election.

Flavio Bolsonaro had also sought extended voting in at least three states, pointing to bad weather.

Washington is watching

Mr Lula and his allies view the runoff as a pivotal opportunity to slow Latin America’s conservative shift.

Mr Trump has so far declined to back a candidate. Pressed on who he wanted to win, the US president would not say.

“I don’t want to get into that, but we are watching,” he told reporters in Washington.