Nigeria: Global Recognition Signals Investor Confidence

Nume Ekeghe

writes on the growing international recognition of Nigeria’s economic reforms, as the country records a string of positive signals from global financial institutions, investors and rating agencies, raising hopes that the difficult policy adjustments of the past three years are beginning to translate into stronger investor confidence

For an economy that spent years struggling to convince investors that it could provide a predictable environment for capital, Nigeria is beginning to receive an unusual form of validation: the outside world is starting to change its assessment. The evidence is coming from different directions.

For instance, FTSE Russell recently announced that it is restoring Nigeria to its Frontier Market classification after the country was pushed into “Unclassified” status in 2023 over concerns about foreign exchange liquidity and investors’ ability to repatriate capital.

Also, J.P. Morgan has admitted Nigerian government bonds into its new Government Bond Index–Emerging Markets Edge, potentially opening the door to billions of dollars in benchmark-linked investment.

Earlier this year, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) removed Nigeria from its grey list after the country addressed deficiencies in its anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing framework.

The European Union subsequently removed Nigeria from its list of high-risk third countries for money laundering and terrorist financing.

The three major international rating agencies Fitch, Moody’s and S&P have also moved in a more favourable direction, with S&P upgrading Nigeria to B, Fitch affirming its B rating with a stable outlook and Moody’s revising its outlook to positive.

Then there is the more mundane but perhaps more telling evidence: foreign exchange is becoming easier to access, Nigerian naira cards are working abroad again, banks are raising international spending limits, reserves have climbed above $54 billion and diaspora remittances are approaching the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) $1 billion monthly target.

Taken together, these developments suggest something bigger than a collection of isolated policy announcements. They suggest that Nigeria’s economic reforms are beginning to produce the one outcome that policymakers have been seeking since 2023, confidence.

Reform Architecture

One distinguishing feature of the Bola Tinubu administration’s economic programme is that the key policymakers arrived with a clear diagnosis of the country’s problems.

The reforms were painful because they targeted some of the most entrenched distortions in the economy: fuel subsidy, multiple exchange rates, monetary financing of fiscal deficits, weak public finances and undercapitalised banks.

Government sources volunteered that the objective was not simply to make Nigeria look better to international investors. “It was to make the economy function differently. That distinction is important,” said a government official who do not want his name in print.

Recently, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its 2026 Article IV assessment, said sustained reforms since 2023 including ending fuel subsidies and deficit monetisation, tightening monetary policy and liberalising the exchange rate had strengthened macro-economic stability, rebuilt external buffers and improved foreign exchange market functioning. It also noted that portfolio inflows had resumed and Nigeria had regained access to international markets.

Former Finance Minister Wale Edun was similarly emphatic when he represented Nigeria at the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings.

“The overall message from the Spring Meetings is encouraging. Nigeria’s global economic standing is improving. Our reform story is being taken seriously and indeed used as an example. Our resilience is better understood, and our investment case is strengthened, with confidence returning at a faster pace,” Edun said.

CBN Monetary Reset

At the centre of the adjustment has been the CBN’s return to orthodox monetary policy. The CBN under the leadership of Olayemi Cardoso inherited an economy in which foreign exchange shortages, multiple exchange rates, monetary financing and weak confidence had become mutually reinforcing.

The response was to allow the FX market to become more market-driven, tighten monetary conditions, improve transparency and rebuild the central bank’s credibility.

The process was expensive. Interest rates rose sharply and the naira initially weakened substantially. But the CBN’s argument was that restoring price and currency stability required breaking with the previous policy framework.

Cardoso has consistently linked the monetary reforms to investor confidence.

Speaking recently, he pointed to the change in Nigeria’s external position as evidence of the progress made.

“Anybody that wants to argue about what the impact of these reforms have been, go and look at the results,” he said, pointing to the dramatic improvement in reserves and the strengthening of the external buffer.

He added that reserves had reached around 10 months of import cover, noting that these were precisely the indicators international investors examined before taking positions in a currency.

“Doing this consistently is what is giving confidence to not just internal stakeholders, but those who also operate internationally,” Cardoso said.

The governor’s point is increasingly visible in the FX market.

The reforms have not eliminated volatility, but they have substantially reduced the distortion between official and parallel markets. The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of Economy, Dr Taiwo Oyedele recently noted that the premium, which had once exceeded 60 per cent, was now below five per cent.

Return of the Dollar

Perhaps the most practical evidence of the reform dividend is that foreign exchange is becoming less difficult to obtain.

For years, the problem was not merely that the naira was weak. It was that dollars were frequently unavailable through official channels.

That affected businesses, airlines, foreign investors and ordinary Nigerians travelling or paying for services overseas.

The improvement in liquidity is now being felt by consumers.

Nigerian banks have expanded international transactions on naira cards, while some have raised spending limits. Cardoso recently offered a remarkably simple description of the change.

Cardoso while speaking at the BusinessDay CEO Forum recently said: “When you travel today, you go with your naira card. It works. It has brought back the way the outside world looks at us. In the past, you go there, the card doesn’t work. Can’t pay for your goods. They look at your naira card. They throw it back at you. Not any longer.”

For the ordinary Nigerian, that may appear like a banking convenience. For investors, it is evidence that the country’s foreign exchange and payment infrastructure is functioning more normally.

Reserves, Remittances and External Buffer

The stronger FX market has coincided with a dramatic improvement in reserves.

Nigeria’s gross external reserves reached $54.48 billion on the 11th of September, up more than $12 billion from a year earlier.

Cardoso has also pointed to the changing structure of FX inflows, particularly diaspora remittances.

The CBN governor has repeatedly said Nigeria was targeting monthly remittance inflows of $1 billion, noting that the country had already made significant progress towards that goal with July recording $947 million inflow. The significance is larger than the dollars themselves.

Nigeria is gradually replacing an environment where foreign currency was scarce and heavily rationed with one where inflows are increasingly being captured through formal channels. That again is precisely the kind of market infrastructure investors want to see.

Most Underrated Reform

Meanwhile, market watchers stressed that if FTSE Russell and J.P. Morgan represent recognition from the capital markets, Nigeria’s exit from the FATF grey list represents recognition from the global financial system.

Nigeria was removed from the FATF list of jurisdictions under increased monitoring in October 2025 after demonstrating progress on anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing reforms. FATF specifically cited improvements in risk assessment, financial-sector supervision, beneficial ownership information, financial intelligence, investigations and prosecutions.

The significance is considerable. Cardoso said Nigeria’s grey-listing had potentially cost the economy more than $30 billion in capital inflows, based on the historical impact of grey-listing on capital flows.

“Exiting the list therefore signals a major restoration of confidence and eases compliance frictions for correspondent banks,” he said.

The subsequent removal from the EU’s high-risk AML/CFT list reinforced that message.

For banks and international investors, analysts believe lower compliance friction means lower transaction costs and fewer obstacles to cross-border financial activity. It is therefore another piece of the investor-confidence puzzle.

Reopening the Door

The changing view of Nigeria is perhaps most obvious in the capital market. Nigeria’s return to the FTSE Russell Frontier Market Index, effective September 21, reverses its 2023 exit, which was largely linked to challenges around FX liquidity and investors’ ability to move their money out of the country.

Commenting on the development, Oyedele said the return was about more than just being back on the index. J.P. Morgan’s latest decision strengthens the case.

Nigeria has been assigned a 7.40 per cent weighting in the new GBI-EM Edge index, translating to roughly $17.47 billion of eligible Nigerian government debt.

Oyedele described the inclusion as “a clear, independent endorsement” of the reform agenda and said it reflected the confidence international capital markets now place in Nigeria’s economic management.

The $17.5 billion is not guaranteed new investment. Rather, it represents the eligible Nigerian debt corresponding to the country’s index weighting, with benchmark-tracking funds expected to adjust their portfolios over time.

But even that potential matters. It means Nigeria is once again positioning itself to benefit from institutional capital that was previously constrained by market-access concerns.

Oyedele, was also quoted to have said the inclusion was an independent validation of Nigeria’s ongoing economic reforms.

Oyedele stated, “This inclusion is a clear, independent endorsement of the discipline behind President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s reform agenda. It reflects the confidence international capital markets now place in Nigeria’s economic management, and it lowers the cost of financing our development priorities. We remain focused on the work still required to earn full reinstatement in JP Morgan’s flagship index.”

Rebuilding Banking System

The reform story is not confined to FX and capital markets.

The banking sector recapitalisation programme has also delivered a significant result. 33 of Nigeria’s 37 banks had met the new capital requirements, raising approximately N4.65 trillion in fresh capital.

For Cardoso, whose monetary-policy agenda depends heavily on a stable financial system, stronger bank balance sheets are essential. Analysts agree that a better-capitalised banking system is more capable of absorbing shocks, supporting credit growth and financing the investment cycle that policymakers ultimately want to create.

Ratings Agencies Take Note

The changing perception is also reflected in Nigeria’s sovereign ratings. S&P upgraded Nigeria to B from B- in May, while Fitch retained its B rating with a stable outlook and Moody’s revised its outlook to positive from stable, citing stronger reserves and improved economic resilience.

While the challenges remain, the direction is clear: Nigeria’s credit story is improving. Even S&P Global’s decision to acquire a majority stake in Agusto & Co. adds to the growing international interest in Nigeria’s financial markets.

Hard Part Begins

There is, however, an important caveat. Investor confidence is not the same thing as household prosperity.

Nigeria still faces high living costs, inflationary pressures, elevated interest rates, weak purchasing power and deep structural challenges. The administration itself acknowledges that macroeconomic stability is only the first stage.

Oyedele recently said the government’s next challenge was to translate the gains from stabilisation into shared prosperity.

That is the test that will determine whether the reform programme becomes a lasting economic transformation rather than simply a successful stabilisation exercise.

For now, though, the evidence is increasingly compelling.

The FATF grey-list exit shows that Nigeria’s financial system is becoming more trusted. The EU delisting shows that the improvement is recognised beyond the African financial system.

FTSE’s return shows that international equity investors can once again access the Nigerian market under its Frontier Market classification. J.P. Morgan’s inclusion shows that Nigerian government securities are becoming relevant again to global benchmark investors.

The rating upgrades show that sovereign risk is being reassessed.

The stronger reserves and rising remittances show that the external position has improved.

And the return of international functionality to naira cards provides perhaps the simplest everyday illustration of all.

Three years ago, the reform debate was largely about whether Nigeria could endure the pain.

Today, the question is increasingly about how Nigeria converts the resulting stability into investment, production, jobs and prosperity. What is clear is that the reforms are beginning to yield the international recognition and investor confidence the government sought.