Yoruba Parapo: Build prosperity, have pan-African vision (II)

Last week, I argued that the Yoruba people’s long-term prosperity would be better served by an ambitious programme of regional economic transformation than by assuming that separation from Nigeria is the necessary route to self-determination. The Development Agenda for Western Nigeria (DAWN) offers a framework for strengthening the Southwest’s economy, improving governance and enhancing its influence. But what if proponents of Yoruba self-determination decide that the ultimate expression of these ambitions must be an independent Yoruba state?

Suppose, for the sake of argument, that such a state could be established peacefully, its borders internationally recognised and its institutions competently managed. Suppose, further, that its leaders implemented the DAWN agenda in full. Would the resulting state necessarily be more prosperous and secure than a southwestern region operating within a reformed Nigerian federation? The answer cannot be determined by examining its internal economic potential alone. Geography, population, trade, security and relationships with neighbouring territories would remain decisive. This is where the argument for ethnic solidarity or eventual separation encounters some of its most difficult questions.

To paraphrase Singaporean founding father and first Prime Minister, as he argued in his book titled, “From Third World to First: The Singapore Story”, prosperous state cannot choose its neighbours. It must coexist and trade with them, while managing the consequences of their political and economic circumstances. An independent Yoruba state would emerge in a region already characterised by extensive population movements, commercial networks and interdependence. Its businesses would need access to markets across West Africa, and its transport systems would have to connect efficiently with neighbouring territories. Its security agencies would need arrangements for intelligence-sharing and border management.

Its citizens would continue to maintain family, cultural and commercial relationships across any new boundaries. None of these challenges would make independence impossible. They would, however, make it essential to negotiate arrangements that preserve cooperation and minimise disruption. The question is whether these objectives could be achieved more easily through a cooperative federation than through the creation of a new sovereign state.

History offers important examples of how political separation can shape relations between neighbouring populations. Before German reunification in 1990, East and West Germany existed under different political and economic systems. Their division became a focal point of Cold War tensions, while the border separated families, disrupted social relationships and reflected a wider geopolitical confrontation.

North and South Korea offer a different, continuing example. Their shared history has not prevented decades of political and military tension following the division of the Korean Peninsula. Different political systems, competing strategic interests and the involvement of powerful external actors have reinforced that division. The Korean experience demonstrates that common ancestry does not automatically overcome political conflict.

The conflict in Yemen and its relationship with neighbouring Saudi Arabia offer another illustration of the complications that can arise when borders intersect with internal conflict, regional rivalries and competing security interests.

These cases do not predict what would happen in Nigeria. Their historical circumstances differ, and separation does not inevitably produce hostility. Their relevance lies in a broader lesson: new political boundaries can create new security obligations, and a shared history alone cannot guarantee peaceful relations between neighbouring states.

I am not suggesting that a separate Yoruba state would necessarily experience similar difficulties. Rather, these examples remind us that sovereignty does not eliminate geographical realities. Yoruba Parapo has important questions to examine and case studies to consider. In particular, any proposal for excessive ethnic solidarity or an independent Yoruba state would need to address how its relationship with the rest of Nigeria might evolve after separation, including how it would protect trade, manage migration and cooperate on security.

Another issue no Parapo strategist can ignore is northern Nigeria’s demographic future. Nigeria is projected to experience substantial population growth over the coming decades. Depending on how northern Nigeria is defined and which demographic assumptions are used, projections for the region’s states collectively could reach 240 million to 270 million people by 2050. Based on this, northern Nigeria will remain a major demographic and economic force.

What would an independent Yoruba state do with this reality? It would need to maintain economic relationships with a neighbouring market potentially containing hundreds of millions of people. Northern agricultural production, consumer demand and transport networks would continue to affect southwestern businesses. Southwestern manufacturers, financial institutions, traders, educational institutions and service providers would also have strong incentives to retain access to northern markets.

Another important question is who gets to decide the future of neighbouring territories. An independent Yoruba state would have to consider the geographical positions of states such as Kogi, Kwara and Niger. These states occupy strategically important positions in Nigeria’s internal transport and commercial networks. They also have diverse populations, identities and political interests that cannot be reduced to a single ethnic or regional calculation.

Some Yoruba separatist arguments might regard neighbouring territories as important to the security or economic viability of a future state. Therefore, such territories may be considered under such a potential state’s sphere of influence. Yet having strategic interests in a territory does not confer the right to determine its political future. My point is simple: a political project designed to secure one community’s future must not depend on denying other communities the right to determine their own.

My argument for a stronger Yoruba region within Nigeria is not an argument for preserving every aspect of the status quo. A stronger Southwest within a reformed Nigerian federation offers an alternative path—one that combines regional initiative with the advantages of national scale. Yoruba Parapo could champion the full implementation of the DAWN agenda, demand meaningful constitutional restructuring and mobilise private enterprise to create jobs and wealth. It could promote cultural preservation while strengthening economic partnerships throughout Nigeria and Africa. Such a project would not diminish Yoruba identity. It would demonstrate the capacity of Yoruba institutions and entrepreneurs to transform their region while contributing to the prosperity of others. I believe all Nigerians benefit more from having Yoruba people as compatriots than as neighbours in a separate country.

This is the lesson I draw from the journey from Obasanjo’s intervention in Dangote’s cement business in 2003 to the Lekki refinery and the proposed Lamu project in 2026. Visionary leadership does not merely ask what a community can achieve on its own. It asks how that community can use its strengths to create opportunities on a much larger scale. Yoruba Parapo should therefore embrace a more ambitious objective: a Southwest prosperous enough to lead, innovative enough to compete globally and politically influential enough to help reshape Nigeria’s future.

The ultimate test of Yoruba leadership is not whether it can draw a new boundary around its people, but whether it can build an economy so successful, institutions so effective and partnerships so valuable that its prosperity becomes an asset to Nigeria and a model for Africa.

Join Daily Trust WhatsApp Community For Quick Access To News and Happenings Around You.