The DA wants to become the largest party in Gauteng’s three metros and believes it has a chance of becoming part of government in 60 councils following the 4 November local elections.
Daily Maverick Associate Editor Ferial Haffajee speaks to DA’s federal council chairperson and head of elections, Ashor Sarupen, about the party’s early campaign start, its electoral targets, the battle for Gauteng’s metros, KwaZulu-Natal, voter fragmentation and the prospects for coalition reform before the 4 November local government election.
Ferial Haffajee: How is the campaign going?
**Ashor Sarupen: **I think we had first-mover advantage. We were the first to launch, the first to get messaging out and the first to get posters up.
Our logistics planning was done a year and a half ago. I set the strategy in place in October 2024. We had our first strategic planning workshop for this election in October 2024. The billboards are out, and the radio ads started before the other parties had really got going.
One thing that surprised me was looking at the ANC’s manifesto launch last weekend versus the DA’s manifesto launch. Normally, ANC venues are packed to the rafters. Theirs was not. [The ANC manifesto launch was at a housing development in Diepsloot while the DA rallied to launch at Mary Fitzgerald Square in Newtown, Johannesburg.]
No other party has done a big rally event yet. Normally, everybody is chasing their rallies. It has been interesting from that angle to see the scale of interest in the DA’s campaign.
FH: Which municipalities do you regard as the main battlegrounds and which are the beachheads?
**AS: **Obviously Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni and Tshwane. But there is a much bigger list. I have said publicly before that I think there are about 60 municipalities where the DA could end up in government. We are currently in government in about 27, so that would more than double our governance footprint.
There are also several municipalities where we could emerge as the largest party. In KwaZulu-Natal, uMhlathuze [Richards Bay] and KwaDukuza are possibilities because of the split in the vote. In Gauteng, Emfuleni will be an interesting battleground. On paper, demographically and otherwise, it should be very strong for the ANC, but I suspect the DA could do well there.
FH: You mentioned KwaZulu-Natal. The widespread expectation is that MK will do very well there. Do you agree?
**AS: **Obviously the MK party is going to do very well. Anyone who says they are not going to do well is foolish. But there are places in KwaZulu-Natal where you could end up with the DA on 30%, MK on 20%, the ANC on 15% and the IFP on 10%.
In those circumstances, you can put together coalition governments. There are two or three places where the DA might emerge as the largest party because of the split vote. It will also depend on turnout. In places like KwaDukuza and uMhlathuze, if our supporters turn out, there is a possibility that we could emerge as the largest party.
FH: Let’s turn to Johannesburg. Do you think Helen Zille could win an outright majority?
**AS: **This depends on turnout. If DA voters turn out, and if the swing vote we are anticipating materialises, we could get very close. I think we could get into the 40s right now. I think the public polling is accurate.
If we get very high turnout in DA wards and a good swing in ANC wards, anything is possible. It is a stretch to go from 27% (achieved in the 2021 local government election) to 51%. Don’t get me wrong. But because the turnout environment has changed, we keep saying that 490,000 votes could get us there.
FH: What about Tshwane? Could the DA take a majority there? (Pollsters suggest this is a possibility.)
**AS: **If the opposition vote does not split, it could. If you look at Tshwane in 2021, the DA plus ActionSA plus the Freedom Front Plus together got 48.5% of the vote.
If the opposition can consolidate in Pretoria, and there isn’t a split vote among non-ANC voters, I think a majority is possible.
FH: Who are the DA’s main electoral competitors? Is the bigger issue the ANC or fragmentation among opposition parties such as the Patriotic Alliance (PA) and Freedom Front Plus?
**AS: **Fragmentation is happening. That much is clear.
Because of what happened in 2024, with the ANC losing its national majority, there are now lots of floating voters up for grabs. For us, the task is to make sure we don’t lose support from our own base to the PA, the Freedom Front Plus and other parties.
The other question is whether ANC voters switch.
We saw significant movement in an Emfuleni by-election. Similarly, in Makana in the Eastern Cape last year, we went from 2% to 25% in a ward that had previously been strongly ANC.
FH: What makes an ANC voter swing?
**AS: **I think for many ANC voters, the ANC felt inevitable. The party would always win.
The ANC falling below 50% in two election cycles – 2024 and 2026 – makes it, in the eyes of voters, an ordinary political party. That makes some people who voted ANC habitually rethink their vote.
FH: What makes those voters switch specifically to the DA? (ANC voters have rarely swung to the DA in past elections.)
**AS: **Generally, from what I have seen, it is service delivery. People want roads without potholes. They want water in their taps. They want things that are elementary to human life. It is really about the basics.
FH: Finally, what are the prospects of the Coalition Bill passing in time to introduce a threshold before the 4 November election? (It was only recently passed by Cabinet.) The Bill would create a threshold for participation in government, introduce rules to make coalitions more stable.
**AS: **It is the end of August and the election is on 4 November. The time left is incredibly short. I would have preferred the legislation to have been introduced three or four months ago. With the amount of time left, it is going to require the most expedited parliamentary process I have ever seen.
I have been a parliamentarian since 2019 and have been in one legislature or another since I was 21 years old. It would be a miracle if it passed in time. DM
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