Mnangagwa wins the latest round of Zimbabwe’s succession battle

The intense power struggle that has been simmering between Zimbabwe’s President Emmerson Mnangagwa and First Vice-President Constantino Chiwenga resurfaced at last week’s Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) annual conference in Chinhoyi.

The media made much about Chiwenga’s speech in which he appeared to warn Mnangagwa that he was in danger of precipitating a repetition of the events of November 2017. Chiwenga, then military chief, led a coup that toppled Robert Mugabe and replaced him with Mnangagwa, ushering in the so-called Second Republic.

‘What led to the emergence of the Second Republic?’ Chiwenga asked. ‘It emerged from correcting the rot that was prevailing. Are we not repeating the same mistakes? That is the question we should be asking ourselves.’

He called for a ‘brutal and honest self-appraisal,’ including asking if the congress resolutions were ‘truly coming from the people.’ He had already raised eyebrows by apparently boycotting a conference ball in honour of Mnangagwa, and the funeral of the mega-rich Mnangagwa crony businessman Wicknell Chivayo, who recently died in a helicopter crash.

In apparent response to those moves, Mnangagwa warned his unnamed – but clearly implied – enemies, at a preparatory central committee meeting, against behaving like ‘demons.’

Chiwenga’s address caused a national buzz. But did it ultimately make a difference? Seemingly not in the short term, at least.

Constantino Chiwenga appeared to warn that Emmerson Mnangagwa risked repeating the events of November 2017

The resolutions Chiwenga didn’t like basically aligned ZANU-PF’s constitution with the Constitution of Zimbabwe Amendment (No. 3) Bill, 2026 – CAB3. This effectively allowed Mnangagwa’s presidential term to be extended from 2028 when it was constitutionally meant to expire, until 2030, by lengthening the electoral cycle from five to seven years. It also replaced the directly elected presidency with one indirectly elected by Parliament.

The conference resolutions at Chinhoyi moved the party’s next elective congress from 2027 to 2029, kept Mnangagwa on as party leader until 2030, and resolved he should be the sole, uncontested presidential candidate at the 2029 congress, to lead ZANU-PF in 2030.

This was all anathema to Chiwenga, for whom, it is widely believed, Mnangagwa promised to step aside in 2028 when Chiwenga helped him oust Mugabe.

Bulawayo mayor David Coltart, a seasoned opposition leader, told ISS Today: ‘What I and what we don’t know is what support Chiwenga has.’ This is the critical question everyone is asking.

He said Mnangagwa had effectively neutralised much of Chiwenga’s military support by, for example, bringing his successor as Zimbabwe Defence Forces commander, Philip Valerio Sibanda, into the ZANU-PF Politburo and ‘kicking upstairs’ army commander Lieutenant-General Anselem Nhamo Sanyatwe. He appointed Sanyatwe as Minister of Sport, Recreation, Arts and Culture – a harmless portfolio.

Yet Coltart also believes Chiwenga would not have been so strident in his comments at the conference had he not still had the support of key elements in the military.

Constantino Chiwenga’s speech got the country talking, but the very changes he was trying to stop were adopted

Coltart believes Chivayo’s sudden death was a serious blow to Mnangagwa, who had used him as a conduit to buy patronage and support – not only domestically, but in the region, with leaders like South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa, Eswatini’s King Mswati III, Tanzania’s Samia Suluhu Hassan and Kenya’s William Ruto.

Coltart also noted that Mnangagwa was weakening physically and mentally, presenting himself as 84 though widely believed to be 88 – and so would be 92 if he ran again for office in 2030.

He said if Mnangagwa did run again in 2030, he would confront even more strongly the same constitutional obstacles he and the party had glossed over in CAB3, including that extending presidential term limits required a popular referendum.

‘I think that this situation is becoming extremely problematic. This is just the beginning of a very serious, intense power struggle.’

Zimbabwean journalist and commentator Hopewell Chin’ono, though, believes Mnangagwa clearly out-manoeuvred Chiwenga at the ZANU-PF conference and more generally. He noted on X that Chiwenga had succeeded in blocking the resolutions prolonging Mnangagwa’s term in ZANU-PF’s Politburo and had delivered ‘a rock star speech at the conference.’

‘But the real question is this: did he win anything?’ He thought not. Chin’ono told ISS Today that Chiwenga’s success in the Politburo showed he had influence, but Mnangagwa had overridden the Politburo by getting the resolutions presented from the floor and passed at the conference, which is a higher decision-making body.

Chiwenga’s speech got the media and the country talking, ‘but it earned him nothing, because the very changes he was trying to stop were adopted,’ he posted on X.

Many Zimbabweans, left without an opposition to believe in, are now rallying behind Constantino Chiwenga

However, Chin’ono also says for Chiwenga, defeated politically, the only remaining leverage is the military. ‘If the army is behind him and willing to act, that is his saving grace. Without it, he is finished,’ he says, while adding that a coup is unlikely but cannot be discounted.

‘Nobody knows how much of the military he still has influence over after Mnangagwa removed his allies from there,’ he told ISS Today.

What does this mean for ordinary Zimbabweans not on the gravy train?

As Chin’ono noted on X, many Zimbabweans, left without an opposition to believe in (largely because it has been crushed by ZANU-PF) are now rallying behind Chiwenga ‘as the only man who can end President Mnangagwa’s rule.’

Zimbabweans ‘are mere spectators to a battle raging inside ZANU-PF. Spectators, and nothing more.’

Intelwatch Director Piers Pigou largely agreed, in an interview with ISS Today, characterising the rivalry between the two men as ‘an endless repetitive saga. Chiwenga’s messaging is important, as many who are not in the Mnangagwa camp are not impressed. But they remain in ZANU-PF. It is one big corrupt club, with varying shades of grubbiness.

‘Ultimately, neither [serves] more than partisan interests. Chiwenga is trying to appear more benign … but can he really be trusted?’

Indeed. For ordinary Zimbabweans, the prospects are not encouraging. Either an indefinite continuation of the same debilitating Mnangagwa leadership, or another perilous upheaval with the same basic outcome, more ZANU-PF misgovernance.

Many Zimbabweans and others naively pinned their hopes on Mnangagwa when he ousted Mugabe in 2017, a lesson worth remembering.