Sahara vote today: What the UN Security Council could change for Morocco and MINURSO

The UN Security Council is expected to vote Friday on a US-drafted resolution that would make Morocco’s autonomy proposal the exclusive basis for negotiations over the Sahara while opening the way for changes to the UN mission established 35 years ago to organize a referendum.

The vote, scheduled ahead of MINURSO’s October 31 mandate expiry, follows a week of negotiations in which Washington preserved the central political provisions of its proposal but softened plans to reduce the mission’s military presence and convert it into a political operation.

The final draft, circulated to Council members on October 29, has not been officially released. Reporting on successive versions shows that the main disputes concern the negotiating framework, MINURSO’s responsibilities, Sahrawi participation and the pace of any restructuring.

1. Will Moroccan autonomy become the only negotiating basis?

The most consequential provision concerns the status of Morocco’s 2007 autonomy initiative, under which the Sahara would exercise substantial internal self-government while remaining under Moroccan sovereignty.

Resolution 2797, adopted in October 2025, called for negotiations taking the proposal as a basis and described genuine autonomy as a potentially feasible outcome. It did not explicitly exclude other proposals.

The new American draft reportedly goes further, retaining the Moroccan initiative as the sole basis for negotiations, although its language has been softened from describing autonomy as the only feasible solution to the most feasible one.

That distinction could give Rabat a stronger negotiating position without amounting to a formal UN determination of sovereignty or establishing a final settlement.

The draft also preserves references to self-determination and a mutually acceptable political solution, language sought by Council members concerned about prejudging the outcome.

2. Is the UN preparing to abandon MINURSO’s referendum role?

Established in 1991 to supervise a ceasefire and prepare a referendum, MINURSO never organized the vote because Morocco and the Polisario Front could not agree on voter eligibility and other conditions.

The mission subsequently concentrated on ceasefire monitoring and military observation, although its operations have faced additional difficulties since the 2020 breakdown of the ceasefire.

Washington now proposes removing the referendum reference from the mission’s name, reportedly replacing MINURSO with MINUSO.

The change would carry considerable political significance, reflecting the growing emphasis on a negotiated autonomy arrangement rather than the referendum originally envisaged.

But renaming the mission would not automatically withdraw its observers, terminate its military functions or settle the dispute. Those decisions require further instructions governing its mandate, staffing and operations.

3. Why did Washington retreat from its proposed troop cuts?

The first American draft, dated October 20, envisaged reducing MINURSO’s uniformed personnel by at least 50% by January 31, 2027, and ending its existing peacekeeping role by April 30.

Those requirements were removed after negotiations involving Council members, including Russia and China.

The revised approach would leave the mission operating while the UN Secretary-General examines options for its future, postponing decisions on personnel reductions and conversion into a political mission.

The precise reporting deadline remains disputed in accounts of the latest draft.

For the UN, the immediate question is whether MINURSO can continue performing essential monitoring functions while the political negotiations proceed. For Washington, the restructuring proposals reflect an effort to connect the mission’s continued deployment more closely to progress towards a settlement.

4. Could Sahrawis outside the Polisario enter the consultation process?

The revised text reportedly encourages consultations with a broader range of Sahrawi interlocutors, including residents of the Sahara, people living in the Tindouf camps and members of the diaspora. It also envisages options for consulting the Sahrawi population about Morocco’s autonomy proposal.

Such a mechanism would differ from the referendum originally envisaged by the UN, which was intended to address the territory’s final political status.

The proposal could challenge the Polisario Front’s claim to exclusive political representation, although its practical implications would depend on who participates, how participants are selected and whether the parties accept the process.

The draft also addresses registration of refugees in Tindouf, a longstanding diplomatic dispute involving Algeria, the Polisario and the UN refugee agency. Published versions differ on whether a six-month deadline remains attached to that request.

5. Will Russia and China support the resolution?

Russia’s position remains among the principal uncertainties ahead of Friday’s vote. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said Moscow supported renewing MINURSO’s mandate but would decide how to vote only after negotiations concluded.

Russia, China and Pakistan abstained on Resolution 2797 last year, reflecting reservations about the drafting process and the balance between Moroccan autonomy and self-determination.

A resolution requires at least nine affirmative votes among the Council’s 15 members and no veto from the five permanent members. Abstentions by permanent members do not prevent adoption.

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