Follow people, find property

Leonita Mhishi

THERE is an old rule in real estate that Zimbabwean investors would do well to remember: before ask­ing where land is cheap, ask where peo­ple are going.

It sounds simple, but it may be one of the most important questions shaping Zimbabwe’s property market today.

People create demand. Businesses follow customers and workers. Roads and infrastructure open new corridors. Schools, shopping centres, clinics, ware­houses and offices then follow. Before long, yesterday’s fringe can become to­morrow’s sought-after address.

Zimbabwe’s property map is chang­ing because the country itself is chang­ing. The 2022 Population and Housing Census showed Harare with a popula­tion of about 2,43 million, with the prov­ince entirely urban. ZimStat has since prepared population projections for Ha­rare through to 2042, underscoring the importance of population trends in plan­ning for housing and infrastructure.

For property investors, the message is unmistakable: tomorrow’s opportunities will increasingly be found where people, businesses and infrastructure meet.

Harare provides the clearest exam­ple. For decades, Zimbabwe’s capital revolved around the Central Business District. Offices, banks, shops and gov­ernment departments were concentrat­ed there. Being close to First Street or Samora Machel Avenue was commer­cially valuable. But that model is chang­ing.

Knight Frank data reported in 2025 put vacancy rates in the Harare CBD at 60 percent, while Bulawayo stood at 40 percent. Ageing buildings, congestion, security concerns and expensive parking are encouraging businesses to consider suburban alternatives. The same report noted that major banks had relocated, were relocating or were planning head offices in areas such as Highlands, New­lands and Borrowdale.

That is not simply a property story. It is an economic-geography story. The centre of gravity is shifting.

A business owner does not necessari­ly need to be in the traditional CBD any­more. If clients can reach an office more easily in a suburban location, if there is parking, security, modern infrastructure and nearby retail, the attraction of the CBD weakens.

This explains why suburban office parks, mixed-use developments and convenience shopping centres are gain­ing ground.

A 2025 property-market overview cited strong activity along major arterial roads including Borrowdale Road, Chur­chill Avenue, Second Street, ED Mnan­gagwa Road, Bulawayo Road, Alpes Road and Samora Machel Avenue.

The lesson for investors is power­ful: sometimes the most valuable piece of land is not in the centre of town. It is along the road taking people somewhere. This is also why the growth of areas such as Pomona, Mount Pleasant, Borrow­dale, Greendale and the wider northern corridor deserves close attention.

But there is a second trend investors cannot ignore — densification. Harare is running out of the luxury of endlessly spreading outward. Land close to estab­lished economic activity is becoming more valuable, while demand for mod­ern housing remains strong.

Cluster developments and apartments are therefore appearing in places once dominated by large detached homes.

This is being driven partly by chang­ing consumer preferences. Younger Zim­babweans are increasingly interested in manageable homes, security, modern amenities and locations closer to work and services. Developers are responding with cluster houses, gated communities and apartment projects.

But densification is not without dan­ger. Residents in parts of Harare have raised concerns that cluster develop­ments are increasing population pressure without corresponding improvements in roads, water and sewer infrastructure. This should concern investors as much as residents.

A beautiful cluster development is not automatically a good investment. If roads are poor, water unreliable and sew­er systems overloaded, the location can eventually lose its attractiveness.

Infrastructure, therefore, is becom­ing one of the most important property indicators in Zimbabwe. This is where emerging areas become particularly in­teresting.

Harare South, for example, is attract­ing attention from developers looking beyond traditional residential markets. TSL has announced plans for a 73-hect­are mixed-use development in the area, targeting about 1,900 residential stands alongside commercial stands and com­munity amenities.

Such projects illustrate how the prop­erty market can create new economic nodes.

A new residential community does not simply create houses. It creates cus­tomers. Those customers need super­markets, schools, pharmacies, restau­rants, transport, banking services and recreational facilities. Entrepreneurs then follow them.

The property investor who identifies that chain early can potentially benefit before the area becomes fully estab­lished.

But the same principle applies to in­dustrial property. Zimbabwe’s informal economy is increasingly influencing where commercial property demand emerges. A Zimbabwe Stock Exchange property-market overview noted that warehousing and logistics properties generated rental yields of roughly 12 percent to 13 percent in 2024, with even stronger performance around informal trading hubs including Southerton, Wa­terfalls, Mbare, Chitungwiza and High­field.

That statistic tells an important story.

Zimbabweans may not always shop in conventional malls or formal retail centres, but they still consume goods. Those goods have to be imported, stored, distributed and transported.

Consequently, warehouses and lo­gistics facilities located close to trading activity can become more valuable than some conventional office buildings.

This is one reason property investors should stop thinking about real estate as simply houses and offices. Zimbabwe’s changing economy is creating demand for logistics, storage, flexible retail space and mixed-use developments.

The diaspora is another force reshap­ing the map. Zimbabweans living abroad sent significant amounts of money home in recent years, and property remains one of the preferred destinations for those funds. The ZSE property-market overview reported that diaspora buyers accounted for 40 percent of demand for Harare properties in 2024.

That money is not distributed evenly.

It tends to seek locations perceived as secure, accessible and capable of generating rental income or retaining value. This has helped sustain demand for properties in established northern suburbs and newer developments.

But there is a danger in assuming ev­ery fashionable location is a guaranteed winner. Property markets can punish in­vestors who buy purely because every­one else is buying.

A road can be promised and delayed. A shopping centre can remain empty. Water infrastructure can fail. Planning approvals can become contentious. A supposedly prime development can be­come isolated from the economic activi­ty needed to sustain it.

The real property hotspot is there­fore not merely a place where stands are selling quickly. It is a place where several forces are converging ― popu­lation growth, employment, transport, infrastructure, commerce, services and, increasingly, lifestyle.

This is why Zimbabwe’s smaller cit­ies and growth corridors should not be ignored. Bulawayo’s industrial revival, for instance, could have property conse­quences extending well beyond factory gates. Manufacturing creates employ­ment, employment creates households, and households create demand for hous­ing, retail and services.

Beitbridge offers another lesson. Its strategic position as a gateway for re­gional trade means that logistics, accom­modation, retail and commercial prop­erty can benefit when infrastructure and cross-border activity expand.

The future of Zimbabwean real estate will therefore not be determined only by what happens in Borrowdale or the tra­ditional CBDs. It will be determined by movement. Where are young families going? Where are companies moving? Where are factories expanding? Where are roads being upgraded? Where are schools being built? Where are ware­houses appearing? Where are people willing to travel less to work, shop and live? These questions may prove more valuable than simply asking how much a stand costs.

Zimbabwe’s property market is moving from the old idea of “location, location, location” to something more dynamic: movement, movement, move­ment.

The investor who watches people closely can see property demand before it becomes obvious on an estate agent’s billboard.

A new road carrying more traffic may be a signal. A school filling up may be a signal.

A supermarket opening in a previous­ly quiet neighbourhood may be a signal. A factory hiring hundreds of workers may be an even bigger one. Property wealth is rarely created by bricks and mortar alone. It is created by understand­ing what those bricks will eventually sit beside.

Zimbabwe’s next property hotspots may therefore not be the places making the most noise today. They may be the quiet edges of the city where infrastruc­ture is arriving, businesses are following and families are beginning to settle.

For the Zimbabwean investor, the rule is simple. Follow the people. Fol­low the jobs. Follow the infrastructure. Eventually, follow the property.

l Mhishi is the Principal Registered Estate Agent at HSP REALTY and can be reached on +263 772 329 569 or via email at leonita@hsp.co.zw

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