SA summer grain season faces El Niño risks as maize, soybean prices rise

**Staff Writer **

South Africa’s 2026-27 summer grain and oilseed production season is approaching amid concerns over an intensifying El Niño weather pattern, despite farmers entering the season with favourable soil moisture conditions.

Writing ahead of the season, agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo said farmers in South Africa’s eastern regions are expected to begin preparing land next month, with yellow maize and soybeans among the dominant crops.

Sihlobo said the current soil moisture provides some comfort to farmers, but the rainfall outlook remains a major concern.

The South African Weather Service (SAWS), in its monthly seasonal Climate Watch report at the end of August, warned that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation had strengthened and was expected to move towards a very strong El Niño state over the following months and potentially persist through the 2026-27 summer season.

According to Sihlobo, SAWS expects South Africa to experience the typical impacts associated with El Niño, including drier and warmer conditions during the coming summer.

The weather outlook has already been reflected in grain and oilseed prices, with concerns about the upcoming production season emerging despite record output in the 2025-26 season.

Sihlobo said that on 18 September, white maize and yellow maize spot prices were 9% and 10% higher, respectively, than a month earlier. White maize was trading at about R3 965 per tonne, while yellow maize was around R3 931 per tonne.

The soybean spot price had increased by 13% over the same period to about R8 953 per tonne.

Sihlobo said the price increases were notable given that South Africa had recorded abundant maize and soybean supplies during the previous season, with production reaching record levels.

“Ordinarily, grain prices wouldn’t rise this much after a season of abundance,” Sihlobo said, noting that supplies remained ample in silos across the country.

However, he said concerns over the 2026-27 season appeared to be among the major drivers of recent price movements.

“The focus now is how much farmers will plant for the various summer grains and oilseeds, and how the season unfolds amid the worrying weather outlook,” Sihlobo said.

The agricultural sector is also facing pressure from higher input costs, particularly fertiliser and fuel, which Sihlobo said had been driven by the US-Iran war.

He described the coming production season as a potentially difficult one for farmers, with planting decisions and weather conditions likely to be closely watched as the summer grain cycle gets under way.