Naira set to shrug off election risk in strongest run since 2018

Nigeria’s naira is on course for its strongest annual gain since at least 2018, shrugging off the political risks typically associated with an election season as higher oil prices and stronger remittance inflows boost dollar liquidity, analysts say.

The currency is forecast to strengthen to 1,290 per dollar by year-end from 1,328.92, according to the average estimate of four investment banks. That would extend its 8 per cent gain so far this year to almost 12 per cent, marking its best annual performance in at least eight years.

According to projections compiled from major investment firms, the naira is expected to settle between 1,200 and 1,350 per US dollar by year-end.

Read also: Naira rises to two-year high of N1,326.69 as dollar liquidity supports

Investment firm CardinalStone expects the naira to hover around 1,310 per dollar, while investment management firm Zedcrest Capital projects a rate of approximately 1,300 per dollar.

Financial services firm Cordros Securities provides a broader range, forecasting the currency to trade between 1,250 and 1,350 per dollar. Meanwhile, financial advisory firm MDU Capital offers the most optimistic outlook, predicting a range between 1,200 and 1,300 per dollar.

| Forecaster | Year-End Naira Projection (per US Dollar) | | CardinalStone | Around 1,310 | | Zedcrest Capital | Around 1,300 | | Cordros Securities | 1,250 – 1,350 | | MDU Capital | 1,200 – 1,300 |

These projections suggest growing analyst confidence in the effectiveness of foreign exchange management strategies, with market participants expecting reduced volatility in the local currency market through the remainder of the year.

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