Nigeria’s economy is likely to record greater stability than prosperity by the end of the second half of 2026, Chief Economist, SPM Professional, Paul Alaje has said, warning that improving macroeconomic indicators may not yet translate into better living conditions for households and businesses.
Speaking via his X page, Alaje said the economy is entering a phase where inflation may continue to ease gradually and exchange rate movements could become more predictable than in previous years.
He also suggested that interest rates may start to soften if the disinflation trend is sustained, a development that could provide some relief to firms facing high borrowing costs and consumers struggling with reduced purchasing power.
However, he cautioned that the apparent stability should not be confused with broad-based economic recovery. According to him, structural weaknesses such as low productivity, inadequate infrastructure, insecurity, fiscal pressures and the high cost of doing business will continue to weigh on growth in the months ahead.
The economist noted that while Nigeria may be heading toward a more orderly macroeconomic environment, the economy is still far from delivering the kind of transformation that creates jobs, raises real incomes and strengthens consumer welfare.
Alaje said the real test of policy success will not be limited to lower inflation or a steadier exchange rate, but to whether ordinary Nigerians begin to feel tangible improvement in their daily lives.
“Stability should not be mistaken for prosperity,” he said, stressing that a more predictable economic environment does not automatically mean more money in people’s pockets.
Alaje’s position reflects a cautious outlook for the rest of the year, with improved policy consistency and slower price growth expected to support sentiment. But he argued that the benefits of reform will remain limited unless they are matched by stronger productivity, better infrastructure, improved security and deeper investment in the real economy.
He maintained that the remainder of 2026 could still offer some optimism, especially if inflation continues to moderate and financial market conditions remain calm. Yet he said the pace of expansion is likely to remain constrained as long as the structural bottlenecks facing the economy are not addressed decisively.
For households, the outlook means that relief may come slowly, even if headline economic indicators improve. For businesses, it suggests that while the operating environment may become less erratic, the underlying cost pressures and weak demand conditions could persist.
Alaje’s forecast points to a second half of 2026 defined by cautious progress rather than a strong rebound, with policymakers likely to be judged not by statistics alone, but by whether reforms begin to produce visible gains in employment, investment and real household welfare.
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