Tinubu’s Re-election Bid: The Battle Between Performance and Political Alliances

**Iyobosa Uwugiaren **argues that beneath the display of political strength at the recent inauguration of President Bola Tinubu’s Presidential Campaign Council in Abuja last week lies whether Nigerians believe Tinubu’s leadership has improved their lives enough to deserve another four years

The political battle for Nigeria’s 2027 presidency is already taking shape, and President Bola Tinubu is leaving little to chance.

Indeed, the recent inauguration of his Presidential Campaign Council (PCC), attended by governors, lawmakers and influential political figures, signalled that the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) had started laying the groundwork for his re-election.

At the ceremony, held at the State House Conference Centre in Abuja, Tinubu charged council members and party leaders to demonstrate “unity, commitment and dedication” as they prepared for the campaign, while keeping the administration’s governance priorities firmly on track.

“As I stand before you with a heart full of gratitude and a spirit full of resolve, it is my honour to inaugurate the Presidential Campaign Council of the All Progressives Congress for the 2027 general election.

“I thank all of you for the last election, but no one gets credit for an incomplete assignment until you deliver the next election, until you deliver your electoral wards, until you deliver the votes,” he said.

Earlier, the National Chairman of the APC, Professor Nentawe Yilwatda, said the event reflected the party’s commitment to building a better Nigeria.

He described the presence of Osun State Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party, Anambra State Governor Prof. Chukwuma Charles Soludo of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), and FCT Minister Nyesom Wike, a prominent Peoples Democratic Party figure, in support of Tinubu’s re-election as evidence of the administration’s laudable policies.

He urged the council to communicate Tinubu’s achievements and policies effectively, expressing confidence in the progress made over the past three years.

However, the Presidential Campaign Organisation of Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde has described the APC PCC as a “coalition of failed politicians”, adding that it cannot prevent President Tinubu from suffering imminent defeat in the 2027 general election.

Makinde’s Allied Peoples Movement (APM) Council, in a statement by its Director of Strategic Communications, Richard Ihediwa, described the council as a “Nebuchadnezzar Coalition” heading for political humiliation, citing worsening insecurity, economic hardship and declining public confidence in the Tinubu administration.

With the cost of living, insecurity and unemployment continuing to shape public concerns, Tinubu would surely face the challenge of convincing Nigerians that the sacrifices demanded by his administration have produced sufficient benefits to justify another four years.

But, the campaign council has demonstrated that the president has influential allies. Whether those allies can help him win public confidence is another matter.

Tinubu’s economic reforms will almost certainly form the centre piece of his re-election campaign.

Since assuming office in May 2023, his administration has removed the petrol subsidy and unified the foreign exchange market, presenting both measures as necessary to address longstanding distortions, improve public finances, and restore economic confidence. The government has consistently argued that petrol subsidies imposed substantial fiscal costs, while multiple exchange-rate arrangements created opportunities for arbitrage and undermined confidence in the currency market. It has also argued that successive administrations struggled to address these problems because of their economic and political consequences.

Yet, the justification for a policy is not proof of its success. For millions of Nigerians, the consequences have included higher transport costs, expensive food, increased business expenses, and declining purchasing power. Households have had to adjust their spending, while businesses have continued to contend with high operating costs and uncertainty.

By next year, Tinubu will have had almost four years to demonstrate that his policies are delivering results.

The question will no longer be simply whether difficult reforms were necessary, but whether they have improved ordinary citizens’ lives. Have food prices become more affordable? Have wages kept pace with living costs? Is the naira more stable? Are businesses creating jobs? Has poverty declined, and can more Nigerians access healthcare and education?

These questions will matter more to many voters than the number of policies announced or projects commissioned.

Improved government revenue, economic growth and increased investor confidence may strengthen the administration’s argument, but their political value will depend partly on whether citizens experience corresponding improvements.

Political analysts have argued that a trader struggling to restock goods, a civil servant unable to meet household expenses, or a farmer facing high transportation costs may judge the economy differently from officials examining fiscal indicators.

Nigeria recorded the largest absolute increase in multidimensional poverty globally between 2021 and 2024, adding 17.9 million people to the ranks of the poor, according to the 2026 Global Multidimensional Poverty Index published by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI).

Tinubu’s electoral challenge is to bridge the gap between macroeconomic claims and Nigerians’ daily experiences. If that gap narrows before the election, he will have a stronger case for continuity. If it remains wide, the opposition will find fertile ground for its campaign.

Security will be another major test. Insurgency, banditry, kidnapping and communal violence have continued to affect communities in different parts of the country, disrupting farming, displacing families, discouraging investment and contributing to food shortages. However, security experts have said that security agencies are gradually tackling these challenges.

Tinubu will need to demonstrate measurable progress in protecting lives and property, restoring displaced communities and improving the capacity of security agencies to prevent and respond to attacks.

Employment, infrastructure, education, healthcare and corruption will also shape public perceptions of his administration.

Tinubu will also depend on an extensive network of political allies to sell his record and mobilise support.

The campaign council includes Vice-President Kashim Shettima, APC governors, National Chairman Yilwatda, Senate President Godswill Akpabio and Speaker of the House of Representatives Tajudeen Abbas. Former Zamfara State Governor Abdulaziz Yari has been named director-general, while Imo State Governor Hope Uzodimma serves as secretary.

Yet the effectiveness of these networks will depend on local political realities. For instance, a governor may enjoy influence within the party but face public dissatisfaction, while internal disputes can undermine efforts to present a united front.

Tinubu’s alliances extend beyond the APC. Wike, Soludo and Adeleke could help the president cultivate support beyond his party’s traditional boundaries.

Nevertheless, political influence is not automatically transferable. Supporters of a governor or minister may not necessarily vote for the presidential candidate that leader endorses.

The central question is whether these political figures can translate their endorsements into genuine voter support. Their presence at a campaign inauguration demonstrates elite solidarity, but it does not establish the mood of the electorate.

But can the opposition cause disruption? The opposition’s strongest opportunity lies in the possibility that public dissatisfaction with the economy and insecurity could translate into demand for a change of government.

Prominent opposition figures, including the ADC’s presidential candidate, former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, and the NDC’s candidate, former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi, could challenge Tinubu with alternative approaches to economic management, security and public welfare.

However, dissatisfaction with an incumbent does not automatically guarantee victory. Competing presidential ambitions, party rivalries and disagreements over strategy could divide voters who favour a change of government. The opposition must also move beyond describing the APC as a gathering of failed politicians. Such rhetoric may energise loyal supporters, but it will not necessarily persuade undecided voters seeking practical answers.

What would an opposition government do differently? How would it reduce food prices, create jobs, improve security and strengthen public services? How would it finance its promises and prevent a repetition of past failures?

These questions demand credible answers. The opposition must build effective grassroots structures and present a convincing candidate capable of uniting its political constituencies. Without coordination, it could struggle to convert public frustration into an electoral majority.

The 2027 election will therefore test not only Tinubu’s record but also the opposition’s capacity to offer a credible alternative.

One danger for the APC is that the enthusiasm of political elites could be mistaken for public approval. Governors, lawmakers and party chieftains have political interests in maintaining relationships with an incumbent president, but their support cannot substitute for voters’ confidence.

Incumbency gives Tinubu national visibility and an established platform for communicating government policies.

These advantages could prove significant, particularly if the opposition remains divided. Incumbency also carries a burden of accountability: the President will be expected to defend the consequences of his decisions rather than merely explain their intentions.

However, one of the spokespersons for the Tinubu Presidential Campaign Council 2027, Segun Showunmi, has said Nigerians would sustain the administration’s economic reform programme, describing it as the foundation for national renewal.

Speaking during an interactive session with journalists in Abuja, Showunmi said Nigeria was at a defining moment in its development and needed policy continuity, stronger institutions and accelerated reforms to achieve sustainable economic growth.

He argued that a second term would enable Tinubu to deepen ongoing reforms and translate their expected benefits into improved living standards.

His position captures the ruling party’s central argument: that the reforms require more time to deliver their full benefits and that a change of administration could disrupt the process.

The opposition’s challenge is to demonstrate that an alternative government could achieve better results without imposing further hardship on Nigerians.

The decisive question is whether Nigerians believe Tinubu’s leadership has improved their lives enough to deserve another four years?