ANALYSIS: 2027: Fragmented opposition gives ruling APC upper hand in Jigawa

The opposition in Jigawa State is weakened by internal divisions among parties and the absence of a unified front to confront the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

The parties are deeply divided and uncoordinated, focusing more on internal rivalries than on challenging the incumbent government and the APC.

The absence of a unified front has significantly diminished the standing of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the African Democratic Congress (ADC).

At the same time, the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) is virtually absent in the state’s political arena. Internal crises within these functional parties have cast them as less credible alternatives in voters’ eyes, weakening their collective ability to mount a formidable challenge against the APC’s grip on power.

| | | |---|

The scenario suggests a clear advantage for the APC, led by Governor **Umar Namadi, **ahead of the 2027 general elections. Defections from the opposition to the APC bolster this advantage.

Political observers have identified several factors behind the fragmentation of the opposition in the North-west state. The presence of multiple parties, each with a distinct agenda, hinders the formation of a coherent alternative to the status quo.

Political analysts and observers believe that the fragmentation will inevitably lead to vote-splitting, in which the anti-incumbent vote is distributed among numerous candidates, enabling ruling-party candidates to secure victory with a plurality rather than a clear majority.

Internal Friction: PDP vs ADC

The situation is further complicated by recent public friction within the opposition ranks. Sharp remarks by former Governor Sule Lamido, a PDP leader, against the ADC highlight a deepening divide. The open hostility between major opposition figures signals a failure to present a unified front for the elections.

Rather than concentrating efforts on challenging the governing party’s record, the opposition appears mired in infighting and internal power struggles. This strategic misalignment—prioritising inter-party dominance over a collective challenge to the administration—suggests a difficult road ahead for those seeking to unseat the current government.

Mr Lamido supported the Independent National Electoral Commission’s (INEC) decision to de-recognise the David Mark-led leadership of ADC. Speaking on 4 April at the PDP headquarters in Dutse, the PDP chieftain said the commission was merely exercising its statutory powers to regulate political parties’ activities.

The former Jigawa governor also took a swipe at opposition figures who defected to the ADC. He specifically named former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, 2023 Labour Party presidential candidate, Peter Obi, and former Kano State Governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso. Messrs Obi and Kwankwaso have since left the ADC for the NDC.

Mr Lamido argued that they lack the “leadership temperament” required to resolve internal party friction. He suggested that if they could not manage the crises within their own parties, they could not be trusted to solve the complex problems facing Nigeria.

Mr Lamido, who governed Jigawa State from 2007 to 2015 under the PDP, described the takeover of the ADC as morally indefensible, mocking the leaders for attempting to “confiscate” a smaller platform after abandoning the PDP due to internal challenges.

“You leave the PDP—a party with history and a massive foundation—for a minor entity like the ADC, which has no standing in Nigeria,” Mr Lamido said. “If you think you are strong enough to seize an ‘orphan’ party like the ADC simply, I find that immoral. It is like taking a biscuit, a piece of sugarcane, or a phone from a small boy. The question is: Is this how they intend to rule Nigeria?

“To me, it is not just about acquiring the leadership of the country; the process of assuming that leadership matters,” he said. “If, in that process, you create a loophole for INEC to latch onto, then the fault is yours. That is exactly what happened with the ADC,” Mr Lamido stated.

Reiterating his commitment to his party, Mr Lamido likened the PDP to a permanent home, despite its current issues.

“The PDP is my only sanctuary. Yes, there are problems in my party, but why should I leave? You are asking me to leave my home to rent a small room like the ADC or NDC, but it won’t happen, Mr Lamido stated.

He concluded by questioning the resilience of his former colleagues: “They left their home because they lacked the capacity to withstand the pressure. They went outside to find a small house—the ADC or NDC—and now they are being flushed out of that as well.”

Opposing gubernatorial candidates

Mr Lamido’s son, Mustapha, has emerged as the PDP governorship candidate to run again in 2027.

Mr Mustapha secured a second-place finish in the 2023 governorship election. His first major foray into elective politics was in 2019 when he ran for the Jigawa Southwest Senatorial District seat. Although he lost the bid, the campaign served as his introduction to the rigours of state-wide politics.

The junior Lamido, from the Birnin Kudu Local Government Area, was affirmed as the PDP’s candidate for the 2027 elections. However, he faces a challenge in his own LGA, where Sabo Nakudu is the ADC candidate. Although the ADC has yet to officially announce his nomination, Mr Nakudu has been laying claim to the ticket.

ADC’s post-primary election crisis

The ADC governorship primaries in Jigawa State were tense, forcing the party’s electoral committee to suspend the collation process after a protest by some aspirants.

Speaking at the collation centre at the Tahir Guest Palace in Dutse, the state capital, the Chairman of the ADC Electoral Committee, Zaki Ahmed, admitted that irregularities, internal conflicts, and threats of violence challenged the process.

Mr Ahmed, a retired deputy inspector general of police (DIG), explained that the shadow governorship election was marred by malpractice in several LGAs. Specifically, he noted threats of violence in Gwaram and the absence of voting in the Guri Local Government Area due to violent clashes between factions.

After the declaration of the governorship candidate in favour of Mr Nakudu, a rival aspirant and key financier of the party in the state, Bashir Adamu, released a video on Facebook accusing the party leadership of betrayal.

Mr Adamu, a former member of the House of Representatives, alleged that the party manipulated the primary elections to favour Mr Nakudu, who had just defected from the APC. He claimed the leadership completely disregarded his personal efforts and investments, which had established the ADC’s structural spread and acceptance across Jigawa State.

The former lawmaker has filed a formal complaint with the ADC Primary Elections Appeals Committee, demanding that the exercise be cancelled.

We are still united – ADC chairperson

Responding to the allegations by Mr Adamu, the Jigawa ADC state chairperson, Sani Gumel, noted in an interview with PREMIUM TIMES that only one person could emerge as the governorship candidate. He stated that since Mr Nakudu had emerged, Mr Adamu and his supporters should stand behind the candidate to ensure the party’s success in the state.

Mr Gumel appealed to Mr Adamu and the other aspirants who did not secure the party’s ticket to accept the outcomes for the party’s progress in Jigawa State.

The chairperson acknowledged Mr Adamu’s contributions to building the ADC in Jigawa, urging him not to be discouraged or demoralised by the result.

“In any contest, there must be a winner, particularly in a democracy, but that does not mean those who did not win have no role to play in the party,” the chairperson said, insisting that the ADC remains united.

“After the contest, the party needs every member more than ever before, while individuals like Honourable Adamu must be respected and accommodated. Adamu is our leader and will continue to be a respected leader in our party. We are appealing to him to be patient and persevere through these democratic challenges to lead by example and provide a legacy worth emulating for the younger generation.”

The electoral math: A strategic hurdle

Despite their political disagreement, insiders hinted that Mr Nakudu could pick Mr Adamu as his running mate, but analysts suggest that it will be an uphill task to persuade the latter.

This difficulty is largely rooted in the state’s voting demographics.

For instance, the voting population of the entire Kazaure Emirate—comprising the Kazaure, Gwiwa, Roni, and Yankwashi LGAs, where Mr Adamu hails from—is statistically smaller than that of Gwaram LGA alone.

The APC governorship candidate currently enjoys popularity in Gwaram LGA, and his advantages are bolstered by the recent defection of federal lawmaker Shitu Galambi from the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) to the APC. Any candidate from the Kazaure zone would face a daunting numerical disadvantage in a general election.

READ ALSO: ANALYSIS: How defections, zoning, consensus deals shaped emergence of APC’s 28 governorship candidates

APC maintains a commanding presence across Jigawa State’s core political battlegrounds, notably within the highly populated Hadejia, Dutse, Gumel, and Ringim emirates. This entrenched grassroots dominance provides a powerful structural cushion for the incumbent governor, Namadi, as he buildsssssss momentum for his reelection campaign.

Haru Bala, a political commentator, said the recent mass defections of key opposition figures in the Dutse Emirate, spearheaded by the state Assembly Speaker, Haruna Aliyu, have stabilised the APC within the zone.

Mr Bala stated that the speaker’s role serves as a vital bridge for grassroots mobilisation across these competitive emirates.

“Dangyatin (the speaker has been instrumental in aligning local lawmakers and constituency leaders behind the governor’s 12-point development agenda. This coordinated outreach ensures that key legislative projects and state resources directly resonate, turning structural party dominance into active, voter-ready mobilisation for the upcoming campaign”, Mr Bala stated.