Could Texas Shift Democratic, Challenging the GOP’s Longtime Hold?

Outside an early-voting site in suburban Dallas, Democratic canvasser Nasya Causey is working the foot traffic — and she says the mood she’s hearing feels different this year.

Causey stands by the boot of her car in Irving, Texas, with election posters stacked inside, approaching voters as they head into the Valley Ranch Library to cast ballots ahead of Election Day.

She’s been campaigning for Amber Givens, a candidate for Dallas County Criminal District Attorney, and says she’s seeing more curiosity about Democrats than in past cycles.

According to Causey, many voters lead with the same question: is the candidate she’s backing a Democrat?

That party label, she says, is what they want to know.

“Any Republican is getting a run for their money,” she added.

Nasya Causey said she has noticed more interest in the Democrats than before

For years, Democrats have tried — and often failed — to flip Texas from its long-standing Republican lean.

Now, some in the party are asking whether state representative and seminary student James Talarico could finally deliver what previous campaigns could not.

In the race for a US Senate seat, polling has him running neck-and-neck with Ken Paxton, who has the endorsement of US President Donald Trump.

At a campaign stop on Tuesday, the former middle school teacher framed his pitch around the everyday squeeze of rising grocery and fuel costs, while also training his fire on billionaires and data centres.

He told supporters: “Texas is not for sale,” arguing that “corrupt political deals have gutted our healthcare and sent premiums skyrocketing.

“We have an affordability crisis because we have a corruption crisis.”

If Mr Talarico were to win, it could strengthen Democrats’ route to taking control of the Senate.

They would need a net gain of four seats to secure a majority.

Polling also indicates Democrats could retake the House of Representatives.

Control of both chambers would expand Democrats’ ability to investigate the president and his administration, and to obstruct parts of his legislative agenda.

James Talarico at a campaign rally in Weslaco, Texas

“James Talarico is running a very good campaign, but Ken Paxton has had a lot of questions about his personal life and scandals that the Talarico campaign has been able to use,” according to Philip Harold, professor of Politics at the University of Dallas.

Professor Harold said: “A lot has to happen for the Democrat to win.

“There [are] more Republicans in the state, so Republican turnout has to be depressed.

“We know Democrats are enthusiastic about this race, enthusiastic about this candidate.

“They will turn out, but how much is the president’s unpopularity in Texas going to affect Republican turnout?”

Elon Musk is helping Mr Paxton’s campaign

President Trump has made repeated trips to Texas as part of his midterm election tour, seeking to rally Republicans to vote for Mr Paxton and to oppose his challenger, whom he has labelled “Talafreako”.

Republicans have also gone after the Democratic nominee on cultural lines, portraying him as a vegan who believes God is non-binary — a remark Mr Talarico has said he used deliberately to be provocative.

He has previously argued that cutting meat consumption is the “moral thing to do” and “necessary to fight climate change”.

With the midterm elections expected to become the most expensive in American history, Republicans are drawing major financial muscle into Texas.

Among the biggest spenders is Texas resident Elon Musk, who has channelled hundreds of millions of dollars into backing Republicans.

His largest wager is in Texas, where he is helping lift Mr Paxton after the candidate defeated Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary — a contest shaped in part by Mr Trump’s decision not to endorse the incumbent.

“Attorney General Ken Paxton, he won the primary, so all Republicans, we’re behind him,” said Monty Montanez, chair of the Dallas County Republican Party, when asked about the debacle.

Monty Montanez said: ‘We as a society, we need to come together, win, lose, or otherwise’

But should the GOP fall short, who would carry the responsibility?

Mr Montanez rejected the premise.

Mr Montanez said: “We don’t assign blame, right?

“We as a society, we need to come together, win, lose, or otherwise.

“We just need to respect and understand what the elections are, learn how to work together and just move forward together as a society.”

Republicans argue they remain competitive, even as inflation and higher costs have created political headwinds.

Mr Montanez said Texans face a choice, describing it as deciding whether to vote with their pockets or their conscience.

He called it “a fundamental decision”.

Why are all eyes on Texas in US midterms?

“What do you want for Texas? This is a turning point for us to decide which way we want to move the state,” he said.

“Do we want to move towards open borders? Are we okay with boys playing in girls’ sports?” he asked.

That message appears to be connecting with at least some voters.

Although these were not scientific findings, voter conversations in Dallas suggested a split electorate when it comes to the Senate contest.

“[Ken Paxton] wants to make it where kids have a choice in regards to their sexual preference,” said one woman.

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Another woman said she was voting Democrat for the first time because she disapproved of the current administration. Other men described Mr Talarico as a “creep” and a “nut”.

A young woman said she was backing Mr Talarico because he was not “MAGA” and, in her view, looked like someone who would “actually make some positive changes”.

Even with Democratic energy on the ground, the central test remains whether it can offset Texas’ Republican edge.

“If the election was held a month ago, Talarico would have won,” said Professor Harold.

He said: “But Republicans had a midterm convention, the first midterm convention of any political party.

“They had it here in Dallas.

“They used it to raise a ton of money from donors in north Texas and elsewhere, and flood the airwaves with negative ads to support their candidates.

“So they’re banking on those negative ads working and maybe they will.”