Keo and Zels explain why the third Springboks-All Blacks Test will be decided by South Africa’s final-quarter accuracy, set-piece pressure and Cheslin Kolbe’s counter-attacking threat. The post Springboks must finish what they start against All Blacks appeared first on KEO.co.za .
The third Test is the decider in Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry Series between the Springboks and **All Blacks. **
That was the view on the latest Keo & Zels Show as Mark Keohane and Zelim Nel looked ahead to Saturday’s Springboks-All Blacks showdown in Johannesburg.
It may officially be a four-Test series, but the teams are locked at one-all and this weekend will define who controls Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry. The fourth-Test is in Baltimore, USA.
According to Keo & Zels, whoever wins the three-Test series in South Africa claims it as a series win. The point of a tour to South Africa is to play the Tests in South Africa.
The central challenge: finishing.
Across the final 30 minutes of the opening two Tests combined, the All Blacks have outscored South Africa 33–3. The Boks have also failed to score in the last 15 minutes of either Test.
That is the warning.
New Zealand finished stronger at Ellis Park and nearly stole the Cape Town Test. Substitutions, scrum penalties and tactical changes contributed, but Keo and Zels were united on the verdict: the Boks cannot allow the All Blacks to own the final quarter.
The All Blacks have picked accordingly. Their backs are unchanged, but Sam Darry comes into the second row and Tupou Vaa’i shifts to No 4. The Keo & Zels analysis was that New Zealand are targeting the lineout.
The Boks have stolen four All Blacks lineouts, with Eben Etzebeth outstanding. New Zealand are at their most dangerous when they launch from clean lineout ball. Their first-phase try in the second Test showed the damage they can do out wide.
Deny them that platform and their attack loses rhythm.
The show also focused on the scrum. Ox Nché, Malcolm Marx and Wilco Louw give South Africa the power to attack, while referee Nika Amashukeli’s interpretation will shape the contest.
Cheslin Kolbe’s selection at fullback changes New Zealand’s kicking equation. Damian Willemse has been outstanding under the high ball, but Kolbe brings a different counter-attacking threat. Kick too long and he has the field, the footwork and Kurt-Lee Arendse and Ethan Hooker around him. His tactical kicking is among the most underrated in Test rugby.
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Keo and Zels also examined the timing of South Africa’s midfield defence. Damian de Allende and Jesse Kriel made 36 tackles combined in Cape Town, with New Zealand drawing them into traffic before attacking elsewhere. If the Boks blitz, they have to commit totally. Hesitation creates the space the All Blacks exploit better than anyone.
Then there is Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu against Ruben Love. Both have been measured because of the pressure, but one moment from either flyhalf could unlock the Test.
Zels described Sacha as the best rugby player in the world, even if he is not yet the complete version of himself. His growth is in understanding that greatness is not about chasing magic with every touch. It is about recognising the moment and owning it.
The Springboks v All Blacks rivalry is 112 Tests old. The All Blacks have won eight of their last 10 Tests at altitude. The Boks have to reclaim Johannesburg, disrupt New Zealand’s set piece, survive their late surge and finish what they start.
Watch the latest Keo & Zels Show for the complete breakdown of the teams, tactics and individual battles that will decide the third Test.
This is the decider.
