Kariba water levels fall again, raises fresh blackout fears for Zambia, Zimbabwe

**HARARE-(MaraviPost)-**The seasonal recession of Lake Kariba is once again sounding alarm bells for Zambia and Zimbabwe, two countries that have endured years of crippling load shedding largely blamed on low water levels at their shared hydropower dam.

The Zambezi River Authority said Monday, 12 October 2026, that the lake level continues to recede gradually, in line with the expected seasonal hydrological trend. The lake now stands at 480.72 meters, with usable live storage for power generation at 24.11 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM), or 37.21%.

While the figure is a marked improvement from the crisis low of 477.38m and just 13.03% storage (8.44 BCM) recorded on the same date in 2025, the downward trend is a cause for concern. In a good year, such as 2018, Kariba was at 485.00m with 70.65% usable storage.

Kariba Dam, designed to operate between 475.50m and 488.50m, provides the bulk of electricity for both nations. When water drops, generation is cut.

Both governments have consistently cited low water levels as the primary cause of prolonged load shedding that has shut businesses, disrupted hospitals and schools, and forced households to go up to 12 hours without power in the past two years.

Energy experts, however, say water is only part of the problem. The power crisis has been worsened by obsolete generation and transmission equipment, years of underinvestment, lack of maintenance, and slow pace of diversification away from hydro.

Zambia in particular remains almost totally dependent on hydroelectricity, leaving its entire economy exposed to drought.

That vulnerability was at the center of a high-level call for action in Lusaka this week. Vice President Dr. Mutale W.K. Nalumango, opening the three-day Energy Forum for Africa (EFFA) at the Mulungushi International Conference Centre, called for greater investment in energy diversification to secure the country’s future under the Grow Zambia Agenda.

“Our concern is not the definition of energy; it is the issue of the energy mix. We must confront the physical realities we face, including drought, our total dependence on hydroelectricity, and the urgent need to diversify our energy sources,” she said.

The Forum, held under the theme “Driving a Borderless Energy Future for Africa,” has brought together governments, utilities including Zesco Limited, investors and financiers to push for regional cooperation and investment in renewables, grid expansion and resilient infrastructure.

With Kariba at just 37% and still falling before the rains, both Zambia and Zimbabwe face a precarious few months.

Without accelerated investment in alternative sources like solar and wind, and rehabilitation of ageing plants, analysts warn the region will remain trapped in a cycle of water-dependent blackouts.

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