2027: North-West Widens Lead As Sokoto, Jigawa Top Voter Registration Growth

** Zone won’t give bloc votes to single candidate – Political scientist**

By Ademu Idakwo, Abuja; Nonye Ekwenugu, Kaduna; Olamide Ojuokaye, Lagos; Aza Msue, Makurdi; Abdullahi Olesin, Ilorin; Nnamdi Mbawike, Enugu; Muh’d Zangina Kura, Dutse; and Hafsat Bello Bahara, Kano

The North-West has widened its lead in Nigeria’s voter registration, with Sokoto and Jigawa recording the highest percentage increases between the 2023 general election and October 2026, according to an analysis of figures from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

The analysis by Mundx Analytics showed that Nigeria’s registered voter population increased from 93,469,008 in 2023 to 103,428,715 in October 2026, representing an addition of 9,959,707 voters, or approximately 10.66 per cent.

The North-West recorded the highest regional growth at 12.71 per cent, followed by the North-East with 11.35 per cent and the North-Central with 10.43 per cent.

In the South, the South-East recorded a 9.80 per cent increase, the South-South 9.58 per cent and the South-West 9.22 per cent.

Sokoto topped the state rankings, with its registered voter population rising from 2,172,056 in 2023 to 2,633,113 in October 2026, an increase of 461,057 or 21.23 per cent.

Jigawa followed with a 19.42 per cent increase, from 2,351,298 to 2,807,811, representing an additional 456,513 registered voters.

Osun ranked third, recording a 19.08 per cent increase from 1,954,800 to 2,327,784 voters.

Other states among the 10 highest percentage increases were Yobe at 16.73 per cent, Kogi at 15.51 per cent, Zamfara at 15.42 per cent, Edo at 14.56 per cent, Ebonyi at 14.42 per cent, Kebbi at 13.65 per cent and Bayelsa at 13.61 per cent.

Four North-West states – Sokoto, Jigawa, Zamfara and Kebbi – featured among the 10 states with the highest growth rates.

In absolute numbers, the North-West added approximately 2.83 million registered voters, accounting for about 28.39 per cent of the national increase.

The North-East added about 1.42 million, while the North-Central, including the Federal Capital Territory, recorded an increase of approximately 1.60 million.

The South-West added about 1.66 million registered voters, compared with 1.38 million in the South-South and 1.07 million in the South-East.

The figures showed that all 36 states and the FCT recorded increases in registered voters, while 18 states exceeded the national growth rate of approximately 10.66 per cent.

INEC Chairman Prof. Joash Amupitan said on 5 October that the three-phase Continuous Voter Registration exercise recorded 10,772,421 new registrations before the final clean-up of the register.

The growth has prompted questions about whether the North-West’s expanding electorate will translate into greater political influence in the 2027 general election.

The national vice-president of the Nigerian Political Science Association, Prof. Murtala Muhammad, in an analysis with the title North-West’s Electoral Numbers: A Political Asset or a Wasted Advantage?, argued that a large voter population did not automatically guarantee electoral influence.

“Nigeria’s reported 103 million registered voters raises a fundamental question about democratic power: Does numerical electoral strength guarantee political influence, or can demographic advantage become a wasted political asset?” he wrote.

Muhammad cited the 2023 presidential election, when the North-West had approximately 22.26 million registered voters but recorded about 6.91 million votes cast, representing roughly 31.1 per cent turnout.

“This demonstrates that a large electorate does not automatically translate into a unified electoral mandate or commensurate political leverage,” he wrote.

He contrasted the North-West’s figures with the South-East, where Labour Party candidate Peter Obi secured overwhelming support in the zone but was constrained nationally by low turnout and limited geographical reach.

According to Muhammad, electoral influence depends not only on voter numbers but also on participation, political organisation, geographical distribution and coalition-building.

“The North-West’s potential advantage is nevertheless considerable. Kano, Kaduna and Katsina alone account for approximately 15.1 million registered voters in the reported October 2026 figures,” he wrote.

However, he warned that the region’s numerical strength could be weakened by fragmented party loyalties, poor mobilisation and ineffective leadership.

“Ultimately, the North-West’s electoral significance must be measured not only by its capacity to influence elections, but also by its ability to secure tangible democratic dividends: improved security, education, employment, infrastructure and accountable governance,” Muhammad added.

The immediate past president of the Nigerian Political Science Association, Prof. Hassan Salihu, said the North-West’s stronger growth in voter registration was not surprising, attributing it partly to population size and political mobilisation.

“That is not strange. The North-West has always had more voter registrants. Specifically, it underscores the level of voter mobilisation in the region. I think it is a general trend,” Salihu told LEADERSHIP Sunday in Ilorin, Kwara State.

He cited Kwara State as an example of the relationship between population and registration, noting that a large population could produce a high number of registered voters.

“However, not all of them may come out to vote. I expect many of them to come out to vote in the north, all things being equal,” he said.

In Enugu, former chairman of the Inter-Party Advisory Council (IPAC) in the state and former governorship candidate, Barrister John Nwobodo, attributed the differences partly to political awareness and mobilisation.

“The northern population is more politically enlightened than the southern population. Mobilisation of citizens is also a factor. Over time, we have seen the northern population demonstrate more enthusiasm,” he said.

Nwobodo also pointed to commercial activities in the South-East and perceptions among some residents that their votes do not count as possible factors affecting voter turnout in the zone.

In Dutse, Malam Haruna of the Federal University Dutse said the North-West’s large electorate had remained an important factor in Nigeria’s presidential elections.

“From 1960 to 2023, there was no president who won an election in Nigeria without massive votes from the North-West and the North at large,” he said.

Haruna argued that the size of the electorate gave the region an advantage in the contest for political power.

“It is true, and everyone knows, that democracy is a game of the majority; therefore, with these statistics, the North-West region has maintained its advantage as a key player in the country’s democratic or electoral field, an advantage that no candidate aspiring to become Nigerian president can ignore,” he said.

However, he said the zoning arrangement adopted by the Peoples Democratic Party and subsequently by the All Progressives Congress had helped promote regional inclusion in presidential politics.

“So I can say that the zoning formula, which the PDP initiated and which has also been adopted by the APC, as we can see now, has given a sense of belonging to every region; as such, there is no cause for alarm in having a sustainable, inclusive democracy in Nigeria, while the North-West maintains its status as the most advantaged key player in the country’s elections by having more votes than the other regions,” Haruna said.

Meanwhile, a lecturer in the Department of Mass Communication at Kaduna State University, Salisu Ibrahim Gimba, said the faster growth in registered voters in the North-West could influence political calculations ahead of the 2027 election.

Gimba said the region’s large electorate made it important to parties seeking nationwide support, adding that President Bola Tinubu would need to maintain his support in the North-West while consolidating his political base in the South-West.

He cautioned that Tinubu should not assume he would replicate his 2023 performance in the North-West, citing changing political dynamics and the influence of opposition figures, including former Kano State governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar.

Gimba said Kwankwaso’s political base in Kano could affect the All Progressives Congress’s prospects in the state, while Atiku’s appeal to some northern voters could make the contest more competitive.

He added that some voters in the North’s perception that the region had not received sufficient attention from the Tinubu administration could provide opposition politicians with an opportunity to challenge the president’s support.

Gimba said the eventual outcome would depend on the candidates, political alliances and voters’ decisions.

Despite the increase in registration, the figures alone do not establish how many registered voters will participate in the 2027 elections or which candidates they will support.

The comparison reflects the cumulative change between the 2023 and October 2026 registers, rather than an annualised growth rate.

The central question for political parties, therefore, is whether the growing number of registered voters, particularly in the North-West, will translate into higher turnout and decisive electoral support in 2027.

Northerners Are More Politically Savvy – Political scientist

A political scientist and Executive Director of the Centre for Rights and Grassroots Initiative, Nelson Ekujimi, has said northerners are more politically savvy, a factor he believes contributes to their ability to mobilise voters at the grassroots.

He said political mobilisation in the North was often coordinated at the local level, with residents returning home to participate in voter registration exercises and elections.

“The reason why the North continues to record an increase in voter registration compared with the South is that, in the North, people listen to their political leaders, religious leaders and even traditional institutions. But in the South, you and I know very well what the situation is,” he said.

North-West May Not Give Bloc Votes To One Candidate — Political Scientist

A political scientist and lecturer in the Department of Political Science at Benue State College of Education, Katsina-Ala, Kuma Iorkaan, has said the rapid growth in voter registration in the North-West may not translate into bloc votes for a single presidential candidate in the 2027 general election.

Iorkaan said the region’s votes could be divided among competing candidates, even though President Bola Ahmed Tinubu might secure substantial bloc votes in the South-West.

Speaking with LEADERSHIP Sunday, he said the North-West and South-West, as regions with significant voting populations, would make the presidential contest particularly interesting.

“Normally, one can say that a presidential candidate of northern extraction will carry the North-West votes, but it will not be like that because the North-West and the entire North will not give all their votes to the ADC presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, in bulk,” he said.

According to Iorkaan, political divisions in the North could prevent any candidate from securing overwhelming support across the region.

“The North has been divided. Some are supporting President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for a second term, others are rooting for the ADC presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, while others are supporting the NDC presidential candidate, Peter Obi, with a formidable running mate from the North-West geopolitical zone,” he said.

He argued that Tinubu could secure bloc votes in the South-West because of factors working in his favour, but that the situation in the North-West would be different.

“President Tinubu of the APC will get bloc votes from the South-West because of certain factors in his favour. Coming to the North-West, Atiku will get votes, but not bloc votes, because of the Peter Obi/Rabiu Kwankwaso factor, especially in Kano State. Tinubu will get some percentage there,” he said.

Iorkaan also pointed to political calculations in the South-East, arguing that some governors and political officeholders in the region might be positioning themselves for future presidential ambitions.

“Going to the South-East, Governor Charles Soludo, Minister David Umahi, and other governors in the region want to prepare themselves for 2031, either as presidential candidates or running mates.

“You can see clearly that if the opposition does not put its house in order, President Tinubu will carry the day, as the opposition candidates will divide the votes,” he said.