FEATURE | Dangote’s N$41 billion investment: Seeing beyond the opportunity

Namibia must embrace major investment with confidence and ambition, while ensuring that today’s infrastructure decisions contribute to the country’s long-term economic transformation.

Our basic instinct as a country when confronted with major investment announcements should not be one of cynicism, criticism or negativity. It should be one of optimism, curiosity and ambition.

We should welcome investment, appreciate the opportunities it presents and, importantly, ask how best to translate it into lasting economic value for Namibia.

This was an underlying message from President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah during a panel discussion with Nigerian industrialist Aliko Dangote, where the question of public attitudes towards investment and the need to build confidence in Namibia’s investment environment came into focus.

It is an important perspective as Namibia considers the proposed N$41 billion Dangote Industries tank farm and regional pipeline project at Walvis Bay.

The scale of the proposed investment is significant, not only in financial terms but also in what it could mean for Namibia’s position in the regional energy and logistics economy.

The project envisages a major petroleum storage facility and an extensive pipeline network connecting Walvis Bay to inland markets and neighbouring countries.

For Namibia, this presents an opportunity to strengthen its fuel security, reduce dependence on road transportation, improve the efficiency of petroleum distribution and consolidate Walvis Bay’s position as a strategic regional logistics hub.

It also offers the possibility of attracting complementary investments, expanding economic activity and creating opportunities for Namibian businesses.

However, welcoming investment and asking informed questions about its broader economic implications are not mutually exclusive. In fact, the latter should be part of how we approach any significant development opportunity.

The important distinction is between questioning investment because we distrust it and examining its potential because we want to maximise its benefits.

There are legitimate considerations around local employment, skills transfer, procurement opportunities, land arrangements, taxation and the participation of Namibian enterprises.

There is also merit in understanding the commercial arrangements and the extent to which the infrastructure will contribute to lower transportation costs and greater fuel security.

The comparison with Kenya’s proposed Dangote refinery project, where government equity participation has reportedly featured in discussions, raises an interesting question about whether Namibia considered similar participation.

Different projects require different financing and ownership structures, and public equity is not necessarily the best option in every circumstance. What matters is that Namibia secures an arrangement that delivers sustainable national value.

Perhaps even more important is the long-term strategic opportunity.

By 2030, Namibia hopes to have commercial oil production underway. If exploration translates into commercially viable production, the country could find itself occupying a very different position in the regional energy market.

Consider the possibilities. What if Namibia eventually develops its own oil refinery? Would the Dangote pipeline infrastructure provide an opportunity to distribute locally refined petroleum products into the SADC region?

Could Walvis Bay become an integrated energy hub serving both imported and domestically produced petroleum products?

These are not merely hypothetical commercial questions. They speak to the importance of aligning today’s infrastructure investments with tomorrow’s industrial ambitions.

Of course, oil production does not automatically guarantee a commercially viable refinery. Such a development would require careful consideration of feedstock availability, capital requirements, market demand and regional competitiveness.

Nevertheless, Namibia should be thinking about these possibilities now.

Dangote is pursuing a legitimate continental business ambition, expanding his industrial footprint and connecting African markets.

Namibia should equally approach the relationship with a clear understanding of its own long-term economic ambitions.

The opportunity extends beyond fuel storage and transportation. It encompasses logistics, manufacturing, engineering, technology, employment and the development of local businesses capable of participating in an expanding regional energy economy.

Ultimately, Namibia should neither approach this investment with suspicion nor regard the announcement of billions as an achievement in itself.

The real measure of success will be whether the project contributes to economic diversification, strengthens domestic capacity and positions the country to capture greater value from its strategic geographical location and emerging energy resources.

Namibia should welcome Dangote’s investment with confidence. But it should also have the ambition to see what this investment could make possible beyond Dangote’s immediate commercial interests.

That is how a country turns investment into development, and opportunity into national prosperity.