Global oil shock tests Ghana’s shift towards domestic fuel production

Ghana increased domestic petroleum-product production and reduced imports in the first half of 2026, even as a global oil shock drove up fuel prices and national consumption continued to rise, according to a report by the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies (COMAC).

The report “Analysis of Petroleum Product Volumes, H1 2026” was released recently by COMAC.

According to the findings, domestic production surged by 350.7% to 878.33 million litres, driven by Sentuo Oil Refinery. Imports fell by 12.67% to 3.43 billion litres, while national consumption increased by 12.24% to 4.06 billion litres.

“Ghana’s energy security strengthened as imports declined and domestic production expanded,” the report states. It cautions, however, that “refined-product imports remains Ghana’s main supply source”, leaving the country exposed to disruptions in global supply.

The first half of the year was marked by sharp swings in international oil markets. According to the report, Brent crude rose from US$75 per barrel in January to a peak of US$115–US$120 following the Middle East conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The report says vessel movements through the strait declined by about 96%, while Gulf production fell by an estimated 6.7 million barrels per day. Rerouting cargoes increased freight, insurance and delivery costs.

Those pressures reached Ghana’s fuel market. Average ex-pump prices rose above their January opening levels by 19.9% for petrol, 29.4% for diesel and 22.9% for LPG during the first half of 2026.

Domestic refining helped meet rising demand, but the report identifies a significant concentration risk: Sentuo accounted for 91.3% of domestic refinery output, while Tema Oil Refinery recorded no production during the period.

Ghana also exported more petroleum products. Export volumes rose by 103.3% to 683.66 million litres, the report says. Petrol and diesel remained the most consumed products, together accounting for more than 80% of national consumption.

The country ended the half-year with larger fuel inventories. Closing stocks increased by 91%, from 440.24 million to 840.64 million litres, and average stock cover improved from 3.2 to 6.0 weeks. LPG remained more exposed, with only 3.1 weeks of cover.

The findings show progress in domestic production and fuel reserves, alongside a continuing dependence on imports and a heavy reliance on a single refinery for local output. As the chamber puts it, sustaining growth will require industry players and policymakers “to build a resilient industry”.