South Africa’s World Cup Dominance Under Threat? England, Ireland and New Zealand Face Crucial November Tests

International rugby returns this month with the inaugural Nations Championship providing teams with an important opportunity to assess their progress ahead of the 2027 Rugby World Cup in Australia.

The November fixtures will determine the final positions in the new competition, while also giving nations valuable preparation time before the global tournament. South Africa will enter the period seeking to become the first team to win three consecutive Rugby World Cups.

The competition’s opening round took place during the summer, when attention was largely focused on the FIFA World Cup. However, the November schedule is expected to attract greater interest, particularly with the Nations Championship adding a competitive element to the international windows.

The matches will also be available on terrestrial television through ITV. Ahead of the fixtures, former Wales fly-half Dan Biggar spoke to former Ireland international Ronan O’Gara about the challenges facing the leading teams.

England Must Respond Against Australia

England’s opening match against Australia is expected to be particularly important for head coach Steve Borthwick and his players.

A victory over the Wallabies, followed by a win against Japan the following week, would give England four consecutive victories. That run could provide momentum before their meeting with New Zealand, whom they defeated at this stage last year.

However, a defeat against Australia could bring renewed scrutiny of the team following their difficult Six Nations campaign, during which they won only once and lost to Italy for the first time.

O’Gara said England’s performance against Ireland had left him uncertain about the team’s direction.

“The England-Ireland game left me completely lost as to where England are,” he said. “Never have I seen such a demolition for 80 minutes. Those sorts of days are not easily forgotten or forgiven by the coaches. It’s the same for the public. That could be scarring.”

England subsequently lost to South Africa during the summer before recording victories over Fiji and Argentina.

O’Gara said England traditionally perform well at World Cups and have a strong mentality among their forwards. However, he believes the team must improve its decision-making with the ball.

He argued that England sometimes rely too heavily on box kicks instead of trusting players to respond instinctively to what is happening in front of them.

The team also has injury concerns ahead of the Australia fixture, including at fly-half, where Fin Smith is a doubt. However, England’s squad depth is expected to provide options.

O’Gara also pointed to the increasing importance of the final 10 minutes in professional rugby matches, saying the way games are decided during that period could influence England’s performances in the coming weeks.

Ireland Face Questions Over Selection and Squad Depth

Ireland also have several issues to address as they prepare for the November internationals.

The team has not maintained the same form it showed before the 2023 World Cup, when it was ranked number one in the world but failed to progress beyond the quarter-finals.

O’Gara identified uncertainty over the fly-half position as one of the questions facing the Irish coaching staff, with Sam Prendergast and Jack Crowley competing for control of the role.

He also raised concerns about Ireland’s centre options, pointing out that Bundee Aki, Garry Ringrose, Robbie Henshaw and Stuart McCloskey are all over 30.

While experience remains important, O’Gara said Ireland also need younger players capable of competing at the highest level.

He highlighted the physical demands of modern international rugby, noting that teams must prepare for several injuries during matches.

Ireland’s ability to cope with the loss of key players could therefore become significant during the next World Cup.

O’Gara also questioned the depth available behind first-choice scrum-half Jamison Gibson-Park, describing the drop in quality when he is unavailable as a challenge for the team.

Wales Look to Build on Recent Progress

Wales will use the November campaign to continue developing after a difficult period in international rugby.

The team showed signs of improvement towards the end of the Six Nations, but its performances during the subsequent summer Nations Championship matches were disappointing.

There are, however, positive signs from Welsh players competing at club level. Jac Morgan, Louis Rees-Zammit and Aaron Wainwright are among those who have produced strong performances in PREM Rugby this season.

Morgan has particularly impressed at Gloucester, with Biggar noting his performances as an example of the form available to Wales.

The future of Wales’ four domestic teams remains a separate issue, with discussions continuing over a possible reduction in the number of sides.

O’Gara said consistent victories at club level were important for building confidence among Welsh players, arguing that the team had previously lacked that foundation.

“Winning is a habit,” he said, adding that players could not simply switch into a winning mentality at international level without developing it through regular success.

He also said Wales’ progress should be assessed through improvements in their performances rather than victories alone.

However, O’Gara identified the match against Japan as one Wales must win during the campaign.

Scotland Face Another Test Against New Zealand

Scotland will begin their November programme against New Zealand in a fixture O’Gara believes could be more competitive than some observers expect.

The All Blacks will be widely regarded as favourites, but he said conditions at Murrayfield, particularly if the weather is wet, could influence the contest.

Scotland came close to defeating New Zealand last year after producing a strong performance, only for Damian McKenzie to score a decisive try.

Gregor Townsend’s team has also recorded consistent results against England, although its wider performances have been less reliable.

O’Gara said Scotland had repeatedly shown that they could make significant progress before following it with disappointing displays.

He believes that inconsistency must be addressed if the team is to make a statement before the 2027 World Cup.

South Africa, France and New Zealand Among World Cup Contenders

Biggar identified South Africa, New Zealand, France and Ireland as teams with realistic chances of winning the next World Cup, with England also potentially capable of challenging.

He said Australia, Argentina and Wales were important to the strength of international rugby but were not currently positioned to challenge the leading nations.

Argentina’s development will also be worth watching, particularly with Shaun Edwards involved in the coaching setup.

New Zealand have already shown improvement under Dave Rennie compared with their performances under former coach Scott Robertson.

France, meanwhile, face concerns over injuries to several important players, including Thomas Ramos, Emmanuel Meafou, Thibaud Flament and Julien Marchand.

The meeting between France and South Africa is among the most anticipated fixtures of the autumn. The two sides could also meet again in the Nations Championship final.

O’Gara said France’s injuries had created significant problems, particularly in the second row and at tighthead prop.

He also questioned whether the team had found an adequate replacement for Uini Atonio.

“If the World Cup final was tomorrow, the two favourites would be South Africa and France,” O’Gara said.

Italy, Japan and Fiji Face Difficult Campaigns

Japan and Fiji are expected to finish towards the bottom of the southern hemisphere standings in the Nations Championship.

The two teams could subsequently face either Wales or Italy during the competition’s finals weekend.

Italy are also expected to have a difficult campaign after losing all three of their summer matches and suffering several injuries.

Their performances during November will therefore be important as they attempt to improve their position ahead of the next World Cup.

Replacements and Hybrid Players Could Influence Matches

O’Gara believes the use of substitutes has become increasingly important in international rugby, with matches frequently being decided by the impact of players coming off the bench.

South Africa coach Rassie Erasmus has been particularly associated with this approach through his use of the Springboks’ so-called Bomb Squad.

O’Gara said coaches must now consider whether to begin matches with their strongest available players or keep some of them in reserve to influence the closing stages.

He also highlighted the growing role of hybrid players, who can operate in both the forward and back positions.

South Africa’s Andre Esterhuizen is one example, while France also have several players capable of fulfilling different roles.

O’Gara said there had been speculation in France that Louis Bielle-Biarrey could be moved from the wing to fly-half during the second half of matches.

Players with the pace and versatility to operate across different positions could also help teams exploit gaps in unstructured defences.

Henry Pollock was cited as another example of a forward whose speed allows him to contribute to attacking situations usually associated with backs.

The development could encourage teams to select six forwards and two backs on the bench, or even seven forwards and one back, as Erasmus has previously done.

Three Players to Watch During November

Biggar identified three players he believes supporters should follow during the upcoming international fixtures: New Zealand’s Jordie Barrett, France’s Theo Attissogbe and Fiji’s Jiuta Wainiqolo.

Barrett was described as a player capable of producing decisive moments while also contributing significantly to the less visible work required across a match.

Attissogbe is expected to receive opportunities for France, particularly with Ramos unavailable. His attacking running ability makes him one of the players to watch.

Wainiqolo was also highlighted for his attacking qualities, with Biggar pointing to his performances as a reason for supporters to follow him during the international window.

Hyron Andrews’ Death Offers a Reminder Beyond Rugby

The discussion also turned to the death of former Sale lock Hyron Andrews, who died suddenly last month on the eve of a match involving South African side Lions and O’Gara’s La Rochelle.

O’Gara said he had been deeply affected by the news and was responsible for informing his players about Andrews’ death.

He described the difficulty of processing the loss while preparing for a professional fixture, saying the experience remained unclear in his memory.

The teams eventually played the match and later shared drinks in the changing room.

Reflecting on the incident, O’Gara said it had reinforced the importance of health beyond the demands of professional sport.

“Whatever happens in rugby or in life, your health is your wealth,” he said.

Biggar and O’Gara to Discuss Nations Championship on ITV

Dan Biggar and Ronan O’Gara will continue their coverage of the Nations Championship on The Debrief, in association with Allianz.

The programme will air every Sunday during November, beginning this Sunday at 7pm on ITV4, 11.30pm on ITV1 and on ITVX.

Former England head coach Eddie Jones will join the programme for this week’s discussion.