Atiku’s Endless Quest: Running To Lose Again?

By Rukevwe Ebesekaye

At 79, former Vice President Alhaji Atiku Abubakar has participated in more presidential contests than any Nigerian, dead or alive. For some reason, he seems deeply obsessed with becoming Commander-in-Chief. Even God in heaven would fault him for being ungrateful, considering the numerous achievements he has already been blessed with.

From humble beginnings, the young Atiku acquired an education and secured employment in the Nigerian Customs Service, where he rose through the ranks. He later left the service, became successful in business, and ventured into politics, where he quickly became a prominent figure.

In 1993, he contested the presidential primaries of the SDP and only stepped down after the first round when he realized there was no viable path to victory. At the inception of the Fourth Republic in 1999, he was selected as the running mate to General Olusegun Obasanjo, who went on to win the presidential election, making Alhaji Atiku Abubakar the Vice President of Nigeria.

As Vice President, Atiku became highly influential and reportedly schemed to run against his boss in 2003. It took the intervention of several prominent figures for him to abandon that project at the time. In 2007, he contested the presidential election against Alhaji Umaru Musa Yar’Adua and lost. In 2011, he lost the PDP presidential primaries to the incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan. In 2014, after dumping the PDP, he joined the newly formed APC to contest its presidential primaries, which was won by General Muhammadu Buhari.

In 2019, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar returned to the PDP and won the party’s presidential ticket. He repeated this feat in 2022 but failed to secure the support of many prominent party stalwarts, particularly from the South. Consequently, Atiku’s emergence as the PDP candidate, against Nigeria’s unwritten power-rotation arrangement, plunged the party into a devastating crisis that continues to threaten its existence to this day.

Characteristically, Atiku later abandoned the PDP and masterminded the takeover of the ADC, which now serves as his special-purpose vehicle for prosecuting his presidential ambition. He promoted the narrative that all opposition parties must unite to defeat President Bola Tinubu, who appears to be consolidating power as governors and lawmakers continue to defect in droves to the ruling APC.

Many political analysts and politicians saw through what they considered a political hoax, despite its initial traction, particularly when Mr. Peter Obi subscribed to the idea albeit temporarily. The full support of Mr. Peter Obi and his Obidient followers would have given Atiku legitimacy and perhaps guaranteed electoral victory. However, Mr. Peter Obi would not allow himself to be used to advance what many perceive as a personal ambition that offers little benefit to Nigerians yearning for good governance.

Consequently, Atiku’s anticipated defeat in the forthcoming 2027 presidential election appears to be a fait accompli for several reasons, a few of which are outlined below.

Firstly, Atiku’s popularity has declined significantly across Nigeria. Many people now question why one man is so desperate to become President that he has consistently contested since 1993 and appears unwilling to support another candidate unless circumstances leave him with no alternative, as happened in 1993, 2003, and 2015. He has not consistently presented alternative policies or superior ideas that would convince voters he is better suited than other candidates. Furthermore, his lifestyle does not project the image of the leader many Nigerians believe is needed during these perilous times. He is particularly unpopular among many young people, who view him as one of the oldest of the old political establishment that must give way for Nigeria to move in a new direction.

Secondly, Atiku neither possesses nor is likely ever to possess the popularity General Buhari enjoyed in Northern Nigeria. Buhari’s disciplined lifestyle and reputation for incorruptibility endeared him to the talakawa. Atiku, on the other hand, has surrounded himself with sycophants, bigots, and self-serving elites who continually assure him that he can inherit Buhari’s northern voting bloc. This is a classic case of a butterfly imagining itself to be a bird.

While Buhari could deny opponents the constitutional threshold of 25 percent of votes in many core northern states, Atiku can at best secure his own 25 percent but lacks the political strength to prevent major opponents from achieving the same threshold across the North. If an election were conducted today, Atiku would likely struggle to secure 25 percent of the votes in the FCT and in 15 of the 17 southern states. At best, he may secure a slim majority of northern votes, which is insufficient to make anyone President of Nigeria.

Thirdly, many Nigerians have become wary of Atiku’s inner circle, which consists largely of individuals who have invested heavily in his ambition over the years. Critics argue that he owes political debts that can only be repaid through access to state resources. Repaying these debts to current associates and former cronies could, in their view, spell economic disaster for Nigeria and further exacerbate the country’s security challenges.

The common patrimony of the Nigerian people could be diverted toward settling personal and political obligations, leaving little for critical investments in infrastructure, healthcare, and education for years to come. His associates, many of whom believe it is “their turn to chop,” could become increasingly difficult to control. At his advanced age, critics argue that he may lack either the physical stamina, mental resilience, or political will required to restrain them, especially while managing the immense challenges of governing a nation of over 220 million people.

Indeed, I dare say that a President Atiku could prove worse than Presidents Buhari and Tinubu combined. Given these realities, it is clear that Alhaji Atiku Abubakar can not and should not become the President of either Northern Nigeria or Nigeria as a whole. He may once again appear on the ballot to mark his presence, as he has done repeatedly over the years, but he is ultimately running only to lose yet again.