SA’s fuel import bill surges to highest level since 1994

As South Africans were hit with record fuel prices from Wednesday, paying over R30 for a litre of petrol and over R33 for diesel, the economic impact of the war in the Strait of Hormuz is showing up in the country’s soaring import bill.

Nearly one in every four rands South Africa spent on imports in the second quarter of 2026 went towards crude oil and refined petroleum, the highest since 1994, according to Trade & Industrial Policy Strategies (Tips).

Petroleum accounted for 24.5% of total imports in the three months to June, up sharply from 15.9% in the preceding quarter.

Petroleum – diesel, crude oil and petrol – accounted for about 80% of the combined value of South Africa’s five largest imported product categories. Those five categories together were worth R147 billion, or 28% of total imports.

SA’s fuel vulnerability exposed

The surging petroleum import bill shows SA’s vulnerability to international prices at a time when domestic refining capacity has collapsed.

Stats SA’s August figures put annual inflation at 4.4%, compared with 3.7% excluding fuel, showing how heavily fuel costs are weighing on household budgets.

Overall, refined petroleum drove most of the increase in SA’s import bill in the second quarter. Its share of total imports rose from 12.2% to 19.6%, while crude oil’s share increased from 3.7% to 5%.

Diesel was the standout with an import value of about R70 billion in the second quarter, roughly double the R35 billion recorded in the same period a year earlier, according to Tips.

Trade figures show SA has turned to the US and Nigeria to help keep fuel flowing at the pumps as normal supplies via the Strait of Hormuz have been disrupted.

Source: Trade & Industrial Policy Strategies

SA/US trade balance

SA has maintained a trade surplus with the US in every quarter but one since 2022, but the latest stats show that the trade balance has swung in favour of the US following the import of 710 million litres of fuel in the second quarter of 2026.

SA’s trade surplus with the US hit a high of R22 billion in 2022 due to exports of high-value minerals such as platinum and rhodium.

That surplus swung into a deficit of R700 million in May 2025, a month after the US announced reciprocal tariffs against SA.

The deficit in May 2025 was the result of higher imports, not the inception of 30% reciprocal tariffs announced in April last year, said Tips economist Lucas Mthembu.

The surge in petroleum imports from the US were driven by diesel imports that had previously been sourced in the Middle East and India. This shift displaced Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates as SA’s principal sources of petroleum products.

The chart above shows little overall impact from the US imposition of reciprocal trade tariffs against SA.

US President Donald Trump has explicitly used tariff threats to press trading partners to buy more American goods, including oil and gas.

That policy appears to be working in favour of the US, though Tips attributes the shift to supply disruptions in the Middle East rather than tariff pressure.

SA has also turned to Nigeria for petroleum supplies. Total imports from Nigeria more than trebled to about R25 billion in the second quarter compared with a year earlier, driven by an additional R10 billion in crude oil and R7 billion in other petroleum products.

On the reverse side of the two-way trade, unrefined platinum accounted for about 40% of exports to the US, followed by passenger vehicles.

Citrus accounts for about 1% of exports to the US, roughly the same as in 2024.

Tensions

Saul Levin, executive director at Tips, says while some exports from SA such as raisins and wine have been hit by US tariffs, the overall trade balance is holding up so far.

That could change if the US singles SA out for harsher treatment, given the escalating war of words between US ambassador to SA Leo Brent Bozell III and Minister of International Relations and Cooperation Ronald Lamola.

Bozell accused Pretoria of failing to address US concerns over racial policies, land expropriation and farm attacks, saying Washington had “run out of patience”.

Lamola countered that dialogue was a diplomat’s job and told Bozell to “get out of the kitchen” if he was unwilling to continue talking to the SA government.

SA was granted a reprieve by Trump in February when duty-free access for a range of exports under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) was extended to December 2026. It remains unclear what steps the US will take when that deadline approaches.

SA can point to the shifting balance of trade as a sign of improving trade relations, but there appears to be little agreement on the political obstacles raised by the US.

The real pain is now being felt at the fuel pump. Inland wholesale diesel cost R10.53 a litre in October 2016, equivalent to about R16.48 after adjusting for consumer inflation to August 2026. This week’s price of around R33 is roughly double that inflation-adjusted level.

Brent crude traded above $102 a barrel this week, roughly $30 a barrel more than in February, before the outbreak of hostilities between the US, Israel and Iran that has choked transits through the Strait of Hormuz.

This article was republished from Moneyweb. Read the original here.