‘A forecast is not verdict’ — ADC rejects The Economist’s projection of Tinubu’s 2027 victory

The African Democratic Congress (ADC) Presidential Campaign Council has rejected a report by The Economist suggesting that President Bola Tinubu could retain office in the 2027 elections despite widespread public discontent.

Phrank Shaibu, director of strategic communication of the ADC presidential campaign council, said electoral forecasts could not determine how Nigerians would vote.

In an article titled “No forecast can overrule the people: Nigerians will vote out Tinubu and elect Atiku”, Shaibu said that factors such as incumbency, political machinery, religion and voter turnout could influence the election but did not amount to public consent.

He was reacting to a report published by The Economist on October 1 which examined Tinubu’s prospects in the 2027 presidential election.

The publication identified incumbency and access to ruling-party structures as factors that have benefited incumbents in previous Nigerian elections.

It also pointed to the fragmentation of the opposition, noting that Atiku Abubakar, ADC presidential candidate, and Peter Obi, NDC presidential candidate, are running under different political platforms.

The report further identified religion and voter cynicism as factors that could influence voting patterns in the 2027 elections.

‘A FORECAST IS NOT A VERDICT’

Shaibu said the factors identified by The Economist could not determine the outcome of the election in advance.

“These factors matter. But they are not the same as public consent, and none can tell us how Nigerians will vote in January. A forecast is not a verdict,” he said.

He also rejected what he described as an interpretation of hardship and limited access to public services as political passivity among Nigerians.

Shaibu said residents affected by insecurity and economic hardship retained their political agency and would make their own decisions when they had the opportunity to vote.

He said a resident’s appreciation for receiving medical assistance should not automatically be interpreted as blanket approval of the government’s record.

Shaibu said the economic situation would remain an important issue for voters, arguing that Nigerians experience the cost-of-living crisis through food prices, transport fares, school fees, electricity bills and the cost of running businesses.

He cited inflation of 15.39 percent in August and food inflation of 19.57 percent year-on-year.

Shaibu said a slowdown in the rate at which prices increase does not necessarily mean that food and other necessities have become cheaper.

“Nigerians measure the economy by what their income can buy, what they must go without and whether they can provide a decent life for their families,” he said.

Shaibu also disputed the suggestion that low voter turnout could work in Tinubu’s favour.

He said the relatively low participation recorded in the 2023 presidential election could have resulted from apathy, insecurity, distrust, logistical barriers or the belief that voting would not change anything.

According to him, low votet turnout should not be interpreted as evidence that most Nigerians support an incumbent.

“Tinubu won the election; he did not receive the votes of most registered voters,” he added.