El Niño threatens to deepen southern Africa’s poverty crisis

WANDILE SIHLOBO

October is a special month in global agricultural and food organisations. On the 16th many celebrated World Food Day, which marks the founding of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization in 1945.

It also gives countries a chance to reflect on their food security conditions and outline plans to strengthen resilience and contribute to efforts to reduce poverty in countries that remain highly impoverished.

But this year’s World Food Day celebrations were different. Unlike in previous years, when some countries reported declining poverty levels, the outlook for 2027 is worrying, particularly in southern Africa.

Many countries in the region face rising costs because of ongoing geopolitical conflicts, which have not only increased energy costs but also complicated supply chains.

Compounding the challenge in 2027 is the likely El Niño drought, which could push poverty up across most of southern Africa.

Already, the Food and Agriculture Organization suggests the region may face challenging conditions that could be worse than the 2015-16 drought.

In late June 2026, commenting on southern Africa’s recent droughts of 2015-16 and the expected 2026-27 drought, the Food and Agriculture Organization stated that “the most recent El Niño cycle brought the region’s worst drought in more than a century, leaving 61 million people in need of assistance, straining livestock, water systems and pasturelands, and pushing more than 8 million people into food insecurity.”

“The forecast points to a greater than 50% probability of agricultural drought across large parts of Namibia and Botswana, extending into Angola, Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa and parts of Mozambique and Madagascar.”

Under such prospects, fears are rising that the southern Africa region would face this challenge at a time when global humanitarian aid is also less available.

Recent wars in the Black Sea and Middle East mean resources that would ordinarily be channeled to natural causes of poverty, such as the expected drought, are now constrained by competing needs in war zones.

Moreover, the US Administration’s decision to abandon US Aid also meant that the World Food Programme budget, which relied heavily on US Aid funding, will have fewer resources to assist.

Therefore, if the expected drought devastates agricultural production, the southern Africa region may face a much tougher period than in the recent past in terms of food supplies.

Right now, the region is already at a point where farmers have started planting crops for the 2026-27 season, although some know the coming months may bring challenges.

This also means governments have a limited window to assist with the current season.

Countries that can import need to ensure they have access to food supplies and that the private sector has a clearer pathway to import.

This means that where there are limitations on grain imports, such as bans on non-genetically-modified grains, such bans may need to be suspended for a period during the time of food needs.

Moreover, ensuring feed supplies for livestock is another important consideration. Where fiscal space allows, household assistance may be necessary in the coming months, depending on whether the season turns out in the worrying way we fear.

In countries with agricultural supplies in the region, it may be tempting to impose an export ban to protect domestic supplies. But such policy actions typically further exacerbate the challenge.

They reduce incentives for agribusinesses and farmers to expand production in favourable seasons and cause price shocks that worsen conditions for importing countries.

What matters is transparent, timely information sharing so market participants can make timely decisions, and prices that adjust quickly to reflect each country’s realities in the region.

Closer to home, South Africa remains in a more fortunate position than much of southern Africa. The 2025-26 season was a period of abundance in grains and oilseed, ensuring ample supplies to cushion the country going into the next year.

For example, the maize harvest is at a record 17.5 million tonnes, against the annual consumption of 12.0 million tonnes. Stocks were also ample at the start of the year, which further improved supplies.

Moreover, South African agribusinesses are better placed to import when supply glitches occur.

The country’s dam water supplies are over 80% full, which also suggests that fruit and vegetables typically produced under irrigation may be spared, to an extent, from the challenge we may witness in other countries in the region.

In essence, southern Africa is likely to see a rise in poverty in 2027 because of the El Niño drought.

While South Africa is as exposed to the drought challenge as the rest of the region, the impact may be much milder here.

Still, the country may have to shoulder the region’s challenges, and export produce to its neighbours to stabilise regional food needs.

*Wandile Sihlobo is the Presidential Envoy on Agriculture and Land. He is also the chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa and a senior research fellow in the Department of Agricultural Economics at Stellenbosch University.