Brazil braces for results of election battle between Lula and Bolsonaro

Brazilians waited anxiously Sunday for the results of a tight election race between President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Flavio Bolsonaro that will determine if the Latin American powerhouse joins a regional swing to the right championed by US President Donald Trump.

From the Amazon rainforest to the agricultural heartlands in the south and sprawling urban favelas, Brazilians queued to cast their vote, many of them fed-up with familiar choices.

Lula, almost 81, is seeking a fourth term in an election which he has branded a battle between democracy and “barbarism,” warning voters that Brazil’s sovereignty is at stake in the face of US pressure.

He is facing a tough battle against right-wing senator Bolsonaro, 45, eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence for attempting a coup after his failed 2022 re-election bid.

Little known until a few months ago, Flavio Bolsonaro, who describes himself as more moderate than his firebrand father, has vowed to “rescue” Brazil from Lula, corruption, high taxes and crime.

Oscarina de Oliveira, a 62-year-old caregiver, told AFP she had planned to vote for Lula, as she always has. But “when I got there, I switched to Bolsonaro. Just to see what happens, to see if anything changes.”

Results are expected within a few hours after polls closed, due to the vast nation’s electronic voting system.

Opinion surveys show neither Lula or Bolsonaro were likely to score more than 50 percent — the threshold required to win in the first round. They and are neck-and-neck if the vote goes to a runoff on October 25.

Both candidates have extremely high rejection rates in the deeply polarized nation where a bitter election campaign featured more scandals and mud-slinging than policy and promises.

While all eyes are on the presidential race, Brazilians are also electing lawmakers, senators and governors.

– ‘Flaws and all’ –

Lula is more popular in Brazil’s poor northeast, among low-income voters, Catholics, and women.

“Lula is the only one doing anything for us — at least for us working-class people — flaws and all,” said Sabrina, 34, selling drinks in Rio de Janeiro.

Revered for social welfare programs that lifted millions out of poverty, Lula made a dramatic comeback to office in the 2022 elections after being jailed on a corruption conviction that was later thrown out on procedural grounds.

Riots in Brasilia and the botched coup attempt after his election allowed him to cast himself as guardian of Brazil’s democracy.

In his third term he has overseen a drop in inflation and unemployment, but voters complain about a high cost of living.

Lula has also sharply curbed deforestation in the Amazon, while backing oil exploration.

Despite a growing number of extreme weather events in Brazil, climate change has been absent from the campaign.

“It is important to elect a candidate who defends our territory, who defends nature,” said Tainara da Costa Cruz, 22, who lives along the banks of the Rio Negro in Amazonas state and voted for Lula.

– Trump watching –

Buoyed by his father’s legacy, Bolsonaro leads in the south, among wealthier voters and evangelical Christians.

In a cascade of scandals that dominated the campaign, it emerged that Bolsonaro was under investigation for corruption over the financing of the biopic “Dark Horse” about his father.

For many voters, this did little to move the needle.

“Things are truly terrible. As far as I’m concerned, the left just doesn’t work anymore,” said tech worker Joao Batista, 36, in the Rocinha favela, saying he was fed up with the “horrible” expense of basic goods.

Bolsonaro’s rallies featured massive US flags and images of Trump, who has said he is “very closely” watching the election, but did not endorse the candidate.

The US president has wielded tariffs and sanctions to pressure Brasilia over complaints ranging from the trial against his ally Jair Bolsonaro to alleged unfair trade practices.

Lula repeatedly warned him not to “meddle” in the elections.

He also argued that Brazil would retain control over the development of its vast reserves of rare earths, which have attracted interest from Washington and other foreign powers.

Flavio Bolsonaro has pitched Brazil as a “solution” to ease US dependence on China for these critical minerals.

“I support Lula because he stands up for the poor. Flavio will sell our Brazil off to foreigners,” said Victor Jorge Martins, a 25-year-old event planner.

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