Man Utd vs Roma simulated 10,000 times for Champions League prediction as reality tells different story

Manchester United’s return to Champions League action against Roma at Old Trafford has yielded an eye-opening outcome based on a supercomputer’s simulation.

Roma will travel to Manchester on Monday ahead of Tuesday evening’s Champions League clash against Premier League side Manchester United at Old Trafford.

The Red Devils have won only once in the Champions League under Michael Carrick this season after Man Utd thrashed Sabah 4-0 in their clash at home in September.

Since United’s Champions League demolition of Sabah, the Red Devils have lost 2-0 to Atletico Madrid in Spain and suffered a thumping 4-1 defeat to Como in Italy.

READ MORE: How Man Utd’s nine-match winless run under Michael Carrick could eclipse woes set 42 years ago

How the supercomputer’s Champions League prediction compares with the head-to-head Man Utd and Roma record

The Red Devils are winless in their last nine matches across all competitions under Manchester United manager Michael Carrick this season. Man Utd lost 2-0 to Chelsea at Stamford Bridge and the problems intensified for Carrick ahead of the Roma clash at Old Trafford.

United are currently 20th in the Champions League table after their opening three matches, while Roma are 15th and are one point ahead of the Red Devils. Roma defeated SK Slovan Bratislava 4-0 in the Champions League, but the Serie A club lost 4-3 to Real Madrid and picked up a 1-1 draw against Fenerbahce.

Opta’s supercomputer has now predicted how Man Utd and Roma could play out after running the Champions League match through 10,000 simulations. According to Opta Analyst, the under-pressure United side have a 40.9 per cent chance of winning at Old Trafford on Tuesday.

The supercomputer’s 10,000-match simulation suggested that there is a 34.8 per cent chance that Roma could beat United. Meanwhile, there is a 24.3 per cent chance of the two Champions League sides sharing the points at Old Trafford.

What the supercomputer’s results look like for Man Utd vs Roma based on the 10,000 matches in the simulation:

• Manchester United

  : 4,090 wins (40.9 per cent)

• Roma

  : 3,480 wins (34.8 per cent)

• Draws

  : 2,430 matches (24.3 per cent)

According to UEFA’s official website, the Champions League head-to-head records show United have come out on top on more occasions against Roma. The Red Devils have beaten the Serie A side four times and picked up one draw, while United have lost only once.

READ MORE: Owen Hargreaves ‘can’t even believe’ Man Utd observation he made under Michael Carrick

Man Utd’s last Champions League encounter against Roma came during the Sir Alex Ferguson era at Old Trafford. The Red Devils defeated the Italian club 2-0 away from home in the first leg of the 2007-08 Champions League quarter-finals before Sir Alex Ferguson’s men beat Roma 1-0 at Old Trafford in the return leg.

United have also faced Roma twice outside of the Champions League in the Europa League run under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer in 2021. The Red Devils thrashed Roma 6-2 at Old Trafford in the first leg of the semi-finals before Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s men suffered a 3-2 defeat in the return leg at the Stadio Olimpico.

Across the eight matches in the Champions League and the Europa League, as per Transfermarkt, Man Utd have outperformed Roma by scoring 21 times compared with the Serie A side’s nine successful efforts. Roma have only scored three times in their last four competitive visits to Old Trafford in European competitions.

The Red Devils won on all four occasions at home against Roma and only conceded three times while finding the back of the net 15 times. Man Utd should have a better winning percentage in the supercomputer simulation based on historical data and performances between the two sides.

However, the historical data is not always reflective of the current trends in football, including United’s woeful form under Carrick in the 2026-27 season at Old Trafford. The Champions League clash between United and Roma is slated for an 8pm kick-off time in the UK on Tuesday evening.