Midterms 2026: The key races to watch and what they mean for Israel

Candidates calling for restrictions or an outright end to US military assistance to Israel are competing in several significant races, while some of Israel’s most outspoken supporters in Congress are fighting for their political survival.

By Jordan Levy, World Israel News

Americans head to the polls Tuesday for midterm elections that could dramatically reshape Washington for the final two years of President Donald Trump’s term, with Republican control of both chambers of Congress at risk and several races carrying major implications for the US-Israel relationship.

All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are on the ballot, along with 36 governorships.

The House appears increasingly likely to change hands. The Senate is far less certain, with a small collection of races stretching from Maine to Alaska potentially determining whether Republicans retain control or Democrats capture both chambers.

For supporters of Israel, the election also offers another test of a political shift that has accelerated within the Democratic Party.

Candidates calling for restrictions or an outright end to US military assistance to Israel are competing in several significant races, while some of Israel’s most outspoken supporters in Congress are fighting for their political survival.

Here are the races and trends to watch Tuesday.

The House: Republicans are in serious danger

Republicans entered the election cycle with a razor-thin 220-215 House majority, meaning Democrats need a net gain of just three seats to take control.

At this point, the question may be less whether Democrats can find three seats than how large their majority could become.

The Cook Political Report now favors Democrats in 222 districts, already four more than the 218 required for control, with another 18 races rated as toss-ups. Cook projects Democrats could finish with between 227 and 240 seats.

Inside Elections is even more bullish on the overall swing, projecting a Democratic gain of between 20 and 30 seats.

That would represent a significant repudiation of Republicans just two years after Trump returned to the White House.

Affordability, tariffs and dissatisfaction with the ongoing war against Iran have weighed heavily on Republicans. The political environment has deteriorated enough that districts once considered safely Republican have entered the battleground.

Pennsylvania will be one of the first places to watch. Republican Reps. Ryan Mackenzie, Rob Bresnahan and Scott Perry are all defending competitive seats, giving Democrats the possibility of picking up several seats in a single state.

Other major Republican-held battlegrounds include seats in Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Colorado and New York.

The Senate: A much closer fight

Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control.

Unlike the House, there is no clear favorite.

North Carolina appears to be Democrats’ best pickup opportunity, where former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is favored against Republican Michael Whatley for the seat being vacated by Sen. Thom Tillis.

If Cooper wins, Democrats would still need three additional Republican-held seats while protecting every vulnerable seat they already control.

That puts enormous attention on Maine, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, Texas and Kansas.

Recent polling averages show Democrats narrowly ahead in several of those states, including Maine, Alaska, Ohio and Texas, while Iowa is effectively tied. The extraordinary breadth of the map is itself significant. Republicans are fighting for seats in states including Texas, Iowa and Kansas that they would normally expect to hold comfortably.

Democrats must also protect Michigan, where retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters has created an open seat.

That race has become arguably the most important election in the country for voters concerned about Israel.

Michigan: El-Sayed vs. Rogers

The contest between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers offers one of the starkest choices on Israel anywhere on Tuesday’s ballot.

El-Sayed has called for an arms embargo against Israel and has repeatedly accused the Jewish state of genocide and war crimes. He has also rejected describing Israel as a genuine American ally, saying recently that Israel is “not actually our friend.”

Rogers, a former chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, supports continued American military assistance to Israel and has increasingly made El-Sayed’s rhetoric on Israel and the rise of antisemitism a central issue in the closing stages of the campaign.

The race exploded over the weekend when Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens, who narrowly lost the Senate primary to El-Sayed, took the extraordinary step of endorsing Rogers.

Stevens had previously pledged to support El-Sayed but became increasingly critical of his rhetoric surrounding Israel. The final rupture came amid a dispute over an outside advertisement that Stevens said blamed Israel for high grocery prices.

After Stevens was excluded from a planned Democratic unity event, she appeared alongside Rogers at a Detroit-area church and endorsed the Republican.

The move triggered outrage from Democratic leaders and prompted several members of Stevens’ staff to resign, but it also underscored the deep divisions among Michigan Democrats over El-Sayed and Israel.

Whether the dramatic endorsement changes the outcome is another question.

Polling averages have generally shown El-Sayed with a narrow lead, while a New York Times/Siena poll released Sunday showed him ahead by a much larger 53% to 42% margin. His campaign also said it raised $1.2 million in just four hours following Stevens’ endorsement of Rogers.

Michigan will therefore test more than control of the Senate. An El-Sayed victory would put one of Washington’s most outspoken critics of Israel into the Senate and could demonstrate that positions once considered far outside the Democratic mainstream are no longer necessarily an obstacle to statewide office.

Maine: A major pro-Israel senator in danger

Maine presents another unusually clear contrast.

Republican Sen. Susan Collins has been one of the Senate’s longstanding supporters of the US-Israel alliance. She has backed American security assistance, funding for Israeli missile defense, efforts to prevent a nuclear Iran and legislation combating antisemitism.

Her Democratic opponent, Troy Jackson, has accused Israel of genocide and called for ending US military assistance to the Jewish state.

During an October debate, Jackson said he did not want “any more offensive weapons going to murder people in Palestine.”

Collins responded that she remains a “strong supporter” of Israel and believes the current level of American military assistance should be maintained.

The race is extremely close. Collins is also the only Republican senator seeking reelection this year in a state won by the Democratic presidential nominee in 2024, making her one of the GOP’s most endangered incumbents.

A Jackson victory would therefore have two consequences: moving Democrats one seat closer to Senate control and replacing a veteran pro-Israel senator with a lawmaker advocating an end to US military aid to Israel.

Texas: Another unlikely Senate battleground

Few Democrats expected Texas to be central to the fight for Senate control, but Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico are locked in a remarkably close race.

Paxton has compiled a strongly pro-Israel record as Texas attorney general, defending state anti-BDS measures, supporting American assistance to Israel and backing US military action against Iran’s nuclear program.

Talarico takes a more complicated position. He supports defensive assistance such as Iron Dome and says Hamas must be disarmed, but opposes the sale of American offensive weapons to Israel and has been sharply critical of Israel’s conduct in Gaza.

Recent polling has shown the Democrat with a narrow advantage, an extraordinary position for a party that has not won a statewide Texas election in decades.

If Democrats actually flip Texas, their path to Senate control becomes considerably easier.

Alaska and Ohio: Pro-Israel candidates on both sides

Not every competitive race offers a dramatic divide over Israel.

In Alaska, Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan has one of the stronger pro-Israel records in the Senate. He has supported weapons deliveries to Israel, expanded defense cooperation, action against Iran’s nuclear program and legislation targeting antisemitism.

His Democratic opponent, former Rep. Mary Peltola, also established a broadly pro-Israel voting record during her time in the House, including support for military assistance and Israel’s right to defend itself.

The race is essentially a toss-up and has been complicated by a bizarre controversy involving another candidate named Dan Sullivan, whom Republicans allege was placed on the ballot to confuse voters. A federal judge on Sunday rejected a Justice Department attempt to potentially block certification if the Republican Sullivan loses. Peltola has denied involvement in recruiting the similarly named candidate.

Ohio also features two candidates with significant records of support for Israel.

Republican Sen. Jon Husted has backed military sales to Israel, a hard line against Iran’s nuclear program and efforts to combat antisemitism.

Former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, attempting a political comeback, supported US security assistance to Israel during his previous Senate tenure, condemned the October 7 massacre and backed efforts to cut off financing to Hamas and Iran-backed terrorist organizations.

Brown currently holds a narrow polling advantage.

New York: One of Israel’s strongest House allies fights for survival

New York’s 17th Congressional District is among the country’s most closely watched House races.

Republican Rep. Mike Lawler, one of Israel’s most outspoken supporters in the House, faces Democrat Cait Conley in a district that includes a significant Jewish population in the Lower Hudson Valley.

Lawler has repeatedly defended Israel against genocide accusations and described the country during a September debate as America’s “greatest ally in the Middle East” and “a beacon of hope and opportunity and freedom and democracy.”

Conley also supports Israel’s existence and security and has condemned antisemitism, although she has been more willing to criticize Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Importantly, both candidates opposed an amendment that would have cut $3.3 billion in annual US assistance to Israel.

Polling has shown Conley with a narrow advantage, making Lawler one of the most prominent pro-Israel Republicans at risk of losing his seat.

Other House races worth watching

Florida’s 25th District puts Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz, one of the most vocal Jewish supporters of Israel in the Democratic caucus, against Republican Scott Singer, who is also strongly pro-Israel.

The newly drawn district initially appeared dangerous for Moskowitz, but late polling has moved in his direction. Decision Desk HQ currently rates the race Lean Democratic and projects Moskowitz ahead by roughly three points.

Ohio’s 7th District could also produce a significant loss for the pro-Israel camp.

Republican Rep. Max Miller, a Jewish lawmaker and outspoken Israel supporter, is fighting Democrat Brian Poindexter in what has unexpectedly become a highly competitive race. Miller has been badly damaged by allegations involving his personal life, which he denies, and a House Ethics Committee investigation.

Inside Elections recently moved the race in the Democrat’s direction. Poindexter has received support from J Street, the Jewish Democratic Council of America and Sen. Bernie Sanders, while his own positions on Israel have remained less clearly defined.

Wisconsin’s 3rd District is another possible Republican loss. Rep. Derrick Van Orden, an AIPAC-backed Republican, faces Democrat Rebecca Cooke in a rematch of their close 2024 contest. Van Orden won that race by fewer than three points, but Democrats now see the district as a prime pickup opportunity.

The battle over Israel has also spilled directly into campaign spending. J Street’s political arm launched a $3 million effort targeting several AIPAC-backed Republicans in competitive races, including Van Orden, Miller, Pennsylvania Rep. Ryan Mackenzie and Iowa Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks.

Not competitive, but significant for Israel

Some of Tuesday’s most consequential Israel-related races are unlikely to determine control of Congress.

In heavily Democratic New York’s 10th District, former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander is widely expected to win after defeating pro-Israel incumbent Dan Goldman in the Democratic primary.

Lander, who describes himself as a liberal Zionist but has become an increasingly fierce critic of the Israeli government, made headlines last month when he was detained while participating in a Palestinian olive harvest near Bethlehem. Israel later revoked his travel authorization.

In California’s heavily Democratic 34th District, Rep. Jimmy Gomez faces progressive challenger Angela Gonzales-Torres. Gonzales-Torres has attacked Gomez over support from AIPAC and previously drew criticism for referring to a Jewish community figure as a “very Zionist gentrifier.” Gomez, while critical of Netanyahu, voted against an effort this year to broadly cut US assistance to Israel.

Meanwhile, pro-Israel Democratic Rep. Wesley Bell is heavily favored in Missouri after once again defeating former Rep. Cori Bush in the Democratic primary. Bell’s victory over one of Congress’ most prominent anti-Israel voices was itself a major win for the pro-Israel political establishment earlier in the cycle.

What it could mean for Israel

The immediate direction of American foreign policy will still largely be determined by Trump, regardless of who controls Congress.

But congressional control matters.

A Democratic House would gain control of committees, investigations and the legislative agenda, while a Democratic Senate would gain enormous influence over Trump’s judicial, diplomatic and executive-branch appointments.

The election could also accelerate the changing politics of Israel inside the Democratic Party.

In September, 46 of 47 Senate Democrats backed a resolution demanding State Department information regarding investigations into the deaths of American citizens involving Israeli forces or Israelis in Judea and Samaria. Earlier this year, large majorities of Senate Democrats backed efforts challenging or restricting certain weapons transfers to Israel.

Tuesday will show how far that shift extends beyond safely Democratic districts.

If El-Sayed wins Michigan and Jackson defeats Collins in Maine, two candidates calling for major restrictions on American support for Israel will enter the Senate from competitive states.

If pro-Israel figures such as Lawler, Miller, Collins or Sullivan lose while candidates sharply critical of Israel prevail elsewhere, the political message will be difficult to ignore.

But the picture could also prove more complicated. Candidates such as Brown, Peltola, Conley and Moskowitz demonstrate that support for Israel remains very much alive among Democrats, even as the party’s internal debate shifts.

The first question Tuesday night will be which party controls Congress.

For Israel and its supporters in the United States, the second may be just as important: what kind of Congress emerges from the vote.

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