Why does Netanyahu's Likud fear Israeli expats voting?

Ahead of every Israeli general election, the question of Israelis living abroad resurfaces. Some return to Israel to cast their ballots, while others choose not to make the journey.

But the upcoming Knesset election on 27 October has given the issue particular significance. It will be the first general election since 7 October 2023 and comes amid deep political polarisation in Israel and polls indicating a close contest between the coalition and opposition blocs.

Some estimates put the number of Israelis living abroad at around one million, with the largest proportion in the United States.

Israeli citizens eligible to vote generally cannot cast ballots from their countries of residence, with the exception of diplomats, official representatives and several thousand other eligible Israelis working at Israeli missions abroad.

So why has the prospect of Israelis returning from overseas to vote become such a contentious election issue?

What is Likud trying to stop?

The debate returned to the forefront after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party petitioned Israel's Central Elections Committee to block initiatives helping Israelis living abroad return to vote.

Likud, which raised similar objections in August, targeted the America–Israel Democracy (AID) Coalition and its FLY&AID project, as well as the Israeli Camp organisation and the Democrats party.

The party argues that the initiative amounts to an illegal electoral benefit and violates campaign finance laws, claiming it is intended to help Israelis abroad for political purposes and has links to elements of the Israeli left.

AID Coalition denies the allegations and has accused Likud of trying to prevent Israelis from exercising their right to vote. It says it operates independently of political parties and provides bureaucratic assistance rather than financial support, with voters covering their own travel costs.

The organisation says its services are open to all eligible Israelis regardless of how they intend to vote. More than 30,000 Israelis have registered with the initiative, while organisers have said they hope to help between 50,000 and 70,000 voters reach Israel.

Why could overseas voters matter?

The political significance lies in who these Israelis might vote for.

A review by The New Arab of several Israeli media outlets found that the political preferences of Israelis returning from abroad have varied between elections.

However, some Israeli assessments based on previous elections suggest that those living overseas, particularly in Europe and North America, who make the journey back specifically to vote have tended to favour centrist, left-wing or opposition parties.

Likud could view large-scale initiatives making it easier for these voters to return as potentially benefiting its political rivals.

Previous Israeli research and data have also indicated that many long-term Israeli residents abroad are concentrated in major North American cities, including New York, cities in California and Toronto, as well as London and Berlin in Europe.

These populations have been described as tending towards secular and liberal views and sharing socioeconomic characteristics with groups inside Israel that have historically voted in higher proportions for centrist and left-wing parties.

How many could actually return to vote?

The exact number remains unknown. A Haaretz report in July said thousands of Israelis living overseas were planning to travel to Israel shortly before the election, with estimates that tens of thousands could eventually return.

The newspaper cited assessments that an overwhelming majority of those voters could support parties that would not back Netanyahu.

People have also posted images on social media showing airline tickets they had bought, while entire charter aircraft were reportedly being hired to transport groups of voters.

AID Coalition estimates that between 800,000 and one million Israelis living abroad are eligible to vote. Its chairman has said around 35,000 people have registered with the initiative.

Could flights be restricted?

The controversy has also extended to whether the government could make it more difficult for overseas Israelis to return.

Transport Minister Miri Regev, a Likud member, has denied reports that her ministry was examining ways to restrict non-scheduled flights ahead of the election. She said Israel's skies would remain open and noted that right-wing voters were also planning to return to cast ballots.

The Association for Civil Rights in Israel has meanwhile warned against attempts to restrict voters' ability to return.

In July, it approached the Central Elections Committee, the transport minister and the attorney general, asking them to prevent any measures that could impede Israeli citizens from travelling to vote.

The organisation acted following reports that senior Transport Ministry officials were considering measures to prevent Israelis abroad from arriving on charter flights ahead of the election for what it described as illegitimate political reasons.

How many Israelis live abroad?

There is no definitive figure, as estimates vary depending on how long someone has lived abroad and how Israeli emigrants are defined.

A recent Tel Aviv University study found that 90,922 Israelis left the country for at least three consecutive months in 2025, broadly similar to the 91,499 recorded in 2024 and slightly above the 86,509 in 2023.

Data from Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics also indicate negative migration, meaning more Israelis have been leaving than returning.

The United States, Canada, Britain and Germany are among the main destinations. Several Israeli sources estimate that around half of Israeli emigrants live in the United States, rising to roughly 60% when Canada is included.

Research published by the UK-based Institute for Jewish Policy Research in 2025 estimated that, when Israeli emigrants and their children are counted together, around one million people of Israeli origin live abroad.

The institute estimated that around 630,000 Israelis lived outside the country between 2021 and 2023. This included 328,000 people born in Israel and around 302,000 born elsewhere who obtained Israeli citizenship and lived in Israel at some point.