Goldman Sachs Predicts Upward 2027 Gas Outlook As Middle East LNG Disruption Continues

Goldman Sachs, a leading global investment banking, securities, and asset and wealth management firm, has sharply increased its European natural gas price forecasts for 2027.

Goldman, cited continued uncertainty surrounding Middle Eastern liquefied natural gas exports and the possibility of colder-than-normal winter temperatures.

The investment bank raised its first-quarter 2027 forecast for Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) natural gas to about $85 per megawatt-hour, up from its previous estimate of $51. Its average 2027 forecast increased to approximately $59 from $37.

The revisions reflect growing concerns that disruptions to LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz could persist during Europe’s winter heating season, when natural gas consumption typically increases.

Goldman analyst Samantha Dart assigned a subjective 45% probability to a winter characterized by persistently low Middle Eastern LNG supply. The bank factored in additional allowances for supply shortages and colder weather in its revised outlook.

Although diplomatic developments involving Iran have recently pressured European gas prices, the underlying supply situation remains uncertain.

Goldman estimates that Persian Gulf LNG exports averaged approximately 33% of prewar levels during October, exceeding its earlier expectations. However, shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have weakened again in recent days.

The bank’s baseline forecast assumes regional LNG exports gradually recover to an operating maximum of 83% of normal by February.

That ceiling reflects damage to approximately 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity, which the country expects will require several years to repair.

Goldman outlined substantially different price scenarios depending on shipping conditions and winter temperatures.

If Persian Gulf exports remain at only 25 per cent to 30 per cent of normal through March and northwestern Europe experiences a significantly colder winter, first-quarter TTF prices could approach approximately $173 per megawatt-hour.

Conversely, a warmer winter combined with improving LNG supplies could reduce prices toward approximately $52.

The bank also estimates that European gas prices may need to average approximately $81 during 2027 if Gulf exports remain restricted throughout the winter, encouraging some consumers to reduce consumption.

Such demand reductions could help preserve European storage inventories but would increase costs for manufacturers, utilities, and other energy-intensive industries.

For investors, the revised outlook has implications beyond European gas markets.

Higher European LNG prices could strengthen export opportunities for U.S. natural gas producers, LNG developers, and shipping companies, particularly when international buyers compete for available cargoes.

However, sustained price volatility could also affect contracting decisions, industrial demand, and investment in energy infrastructure.

Goldman continues to expect global LNG markets to become better supplied over the longer term as additional export capacity enters service.

The immediate outlook will depend heavily on Gulf shipping conditions, European temperatures, storage withdrawals, and the pace at which damaged LNG infrastructure returns to service