2027: Play Responsible Politics, Russian Author Urges Tinubu, Atiku, Obi

Russian researcher and author, Valentin Bianki, has called on Nigerian politicians, especially frontline contenders President Bola Tinubu, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and former Governor of Anambra State Peter Obi, to play responsible politics ahead of the 2027 general elections.

Bianki made this call during a press conference and the public presentation of the English version of his book entitled “Politics In Nigeria, Elites and Voters” in Abuja on Monday, even as he charged the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to ensure a credible process to win the people’s confidence.

The political psychologist described Nigeria as a very important country in the world, adding that its politics is crucial to the development of the people but politicians must be cautious of their actions.
The Russian campaign strategist offered a data-driven examination of Nigeria’s electoral politics, democratic resilience and the relationship between electoral outcomes and the distribution of political power.

The presentation brought together discussions on the implications of the 2023 general elections, voter behaviour, political mobilisation, regional representation and the emerging dynamics ahead of the 2027 general elections.

Drawing on extensive research and electoral data, Bianki argued that Nigeria’s democratic experience cannot be assessed solely through conventional international rankings.

Despite the country’s relatively low scores in some democracy indices, he noted that Nigeria continues to demonstrate intense political competition, uncertainty in electoral outcomes and the capacity of political challengers to contest established power structures.

His analysis identified the 2023 general elections as the most open presidential contest since Nigeria’s return to civilian rule in 1999, with four major candidates attracting significant support across different parts of the country.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu secured 36.6 per cent of the vote, the lowest winning share recorded in a presidential election since 1999.

Bianki described Nigeria’s ability to accommodate competing political interests and navigate electoral disagreements as an important feature of its democratic resilience.

“Nigeria’s resilience is not the absence of conflict; it is an extraordinary capacity to live with conflict,” he said.

Bianki identified key trends from the 2023 general elections and factors that will shape the 2027 polls. He said the 2023 elections reflect the importance of personalities more than parties, as region and faith, not party loyalty, reshaped the electoral map.

Bianki revealed that a two-party system only cracked but did not break, as three candidates won 12 states each, with Labour Party and NNPP securing 54 seats in the House of Representatives.

According to the researcher, the internet played a major role, with online momentum translating to 6.1 million votes for Peter Obi, but traditional political structures, money and networks, including governors, still proved decisive.

On governance after elections, his study found a strong link between votes and rewards, even as he noted the generational shift in Nigerian cabinets, adding that there is a steady decline of leaders born in 1956 or earlier who lived through the civil war, and the dominance of those born between 1957 and 1971, whom he describes as Cold Warriors focused on economic growth.

Looking toward 2027, Bianki said dissatisfaction among the public over economic pressure is real, but coordination remains a scarce resource. He also identified new voters estimated at 10 to 25 million, trust in institutions, and the gradual exit of the civil-war generation from office as critical factors to watch ahead of the next general elections.