Persian Gulf oil exports surpass pre-war high as market adapts to Iran’s attacks

Oil exports from the Persian Gulf have exceeded pre-war levels, with more than 24 million barrels flowing through every day despite a record number of Iranian attacks, analysts said.

Oil rushed through the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf pipelines and other alternative routes last week to surpass the pre-war average of 23.3 million barrels a day, according to the Kpler maritime tracking firm.

Preliminary figures show that at an average of about 14 million barrels transited through the Strait and the Gulf of Oman every day, about 82% of the pre-war flow.

The increased transits came despite October marking the most violent month on the Strait since March, with at least 30 ships attacked so far, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre and maritime tracking firms.

About a dozen of the attacks were reported in the past week alone, demonstrating Iran’s rush to try and deter ships from undermining its claim to the Strait of Hormuz.

But with sky-high oil prices and the protection provided by US naval ships in the waters, sailors are rushing to get through to collect on the war-time highs.

Transport for a supertanker carrying Gulf crude to China reached a near record of $37.37 a barrel this week, Kpler said.

“The big picture is that the system for shipping through a dangerous Strait of Hormuz is now well-established and the risk appetite of those involved in exporting oil has risen,” Hamad Hussain, a senior commodities economist at Capital Economics, told the Wall Street Journal.

One China-based ship staffing company even offered as much as $25,000 for a round-trip, which normally takes a week or two, the outlet reported.

Analysts and maritime traders, however, have warned that the high flow is not sustainable, especially if fighting breaks out again between the US and Iran.

Iran has warned of escalating attacks on the Strait and its Gulf neighbors if war reignites, with Tehran maintaining that its sea mines are back in action after the US announced the waters were cleared over the summer.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed Saturday that the attack on two large oil tankers were the result of naval mines in the Strait.