DA trending online as voters head to the polls: What’s really behind the buzz

The Democratic Alliance (DA) is trending online as South Africans vote in the local government elections says a lot about how this campaign has been fought.

Online political conversation grew by about a quarter in the final week of October.

But the numbers show the DA was far from the only party driving it, and not all the noise was in its favour.

Voting stations opened at 07:00 on Wednesday, 4 November, after special voting on 2 and 3 November.

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WHY THE DA IS TRENDING ONLINE

Between 23 and 29 October, analytics firm Murmur Intelligence tracked about 760,000 posts on X about South African parties, institutions and politicians.

That was up from about 610,000 the week before, an increase of roughly 25%.

The DA featured in one of the biggest online moments of the campaign.

The Centre for Analytics and Behavioural Change (CABC) recorded more than 15,310 election mentions from 6,426 unique authors between 22 and 29 October. Mentions peaked at 2,615 on 27 October, driven partly by a debate between the ANC and the DA over housing delivery in Cape Town.

Party leader and Cape Town mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis closed the DA’s campaign at a rally in Mamelodi, Tshwane, on 31 October.

THE OTHER PARTIES FIGHTING FOR ATTENTION

The DA was not alone online. According to Murmur Intelligence:

• the

  EFF’s

  online community more than doubled its share of posts to

  19%

  in the week to 22 October, before falling back to

  14%

  the following week

• MK Party

  and allied accounts grew from

  4%

  to

  6%

  of posts

• the

  ANC and government

  community accounted for about

  9%

  , with about 36 accounts posting roughly 250 near-identical “Vote ANC” messages between 23 and 27 October.

Not all the trending was supportive. In early October, phrases urging people not to vote for the ANC, DA or EFF trended on X in South Africa, ranking 26th and 27th on 8 October.

WHAT THE POLLS ACTUALLY SAY

Trending is not the same as winning.

The latest Ipsos poll surveyed 2,533 registered voters between 12 September and 13 October. It puts the parties nationally at:

• ANC:

  30%, down from 47.5% in the 2021 local elections

• DA:

  28%, up from 19.9%

• MK Party:

  12%, contesting its first local election.

Ipsos cautions that the ANC has historically strengthened its support in the final stages of campaigns.

A separate poll by the Social Research Foundation and The Common Sense puts the ANC at 32% and the DA at 26% nationally.

WHAT’S AT STAKE IN GAUTENG AND THE WESTERN CAPE

In the Western Cape, Ipsos puts the DA at 51% in Cape Town, ahead of the ANC on 24% and the EFF on 10%.

That would keep the party in control of the city, but below the 58.3% it won in 2021.

In Gauteng, the polls tell different stories:

• Johannesburg:

  Ipsos has the DA on

  30%

  and the ANC on

  27%

  , with MK on

  12%

  and ActionSA on

  11%

  . Other polls put the DA as high as

  35% to 36%

  .

• Tshwane:

  Ipsos has the DA

  three points

  ahead of the ANC. The metro is currently run by a

  10-party coalition

  led by ActionSA mayor

  Nasiphi Moya

  .

With no party near 50% in either metro, coalitions look likely.

The DA has said it will not govern with the MK Party or the EFF, which narrows its options.

WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE GNU

The DA and the ANC have been partners in the Government of National Unity since 2024.

In an earlier 2026 survey, Ipsos found that 42% of South Africans believed the GNU was working well and was better than ANC majority rule, while 29% disagreed.

Local results will not directly change the national government, but they could shift the balance between the two partners.

DON’T LET YOUR FEED DECIDE FOR YOU

Not everything trending is true. Between 22 and 29 October, the CABC flagged 79 potentially harmful posts.

Of these, 51 were tagged as misinformation or disinformation, 33 as hate speech and 12 as incitement to violence. Together they drew about 546,600 views.

Turnout could matter more than any trend. Ipsos says that if turnout matches 2021, only about 12.8 million people would vote.

Voters can find their voting station through the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC). Voting stations close at 21:00, and anyone in the queue at closing time will be allowed to vote.

HAS SOCIAL MEDIA CHANGED HOW YOU FOLLOW THIS ELECTION?

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