2027: Nextier urges action on violence, vote buying

By Chesa Chesa

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and security agencies have been urged to identify and map electoral violence flashpoints ahead of the 2027 general election.

The call was made by Nextier in a new analysis of the eight off-cycle governorship elections conducted since the 2023 general election.

The analysis, by Dr. Chukwuma Okoli and Dr. Ndu Nwokolo, identified four recurring challenges — incumbency, voter apathy, electoral violence and vote trading — which, it said, could affect the credibility and peaceful conduct of the 2027 polls.

The eight states are Anambra, Bayelsa, Edo, Ekiti, Imo, Kogi, Ondo and Osun.

The authors recommended that security agencies use evidence-based data to map violence-prone areas and deploy preventive measures ahead of elections.

They cited the August 2026 Osun governorship election, saying the state recorded 13 violent incidents during the month, 10 of them election-related, according to Nextier’s Nigeria Violent Conflicts Database.

Nextier also urged the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and intelligence agencies to strengthen the fight against vote trading by identifying, arresting and prosecuting offenders.

The analysis said vote trading accounted for 31.9 per cent of electoral irregularities observed by civil society monitors during the Osun election, with votes allegedly exchanged for between ₦15,000 and ₦40,000.

On voter apathy, the authors called on INEC and civil society organisations to deepen voter education and address declining public confidence in elections.

Average voter turnout across the eight states fell from 33.91 per cent before the 2023 general election to 31.53 per cent during the subsequent off-cycle contests.

The authors also urged INEC and intelligence agencies to monitor the use of state resources by incumbent political office holders, while calling for equal access to public facilities, including state-owned media, for opposition parties.

They warned that incumbency could remain a major factor in 2027, with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu seeking re-election and several governors contesting for second terms or supporting preferred successors.

Nextier said the lessons from the off-cycle elections should guide preparations by INEC, security agencies, anti-graft bodies and civil society organisations ahead of the 2027 polls.

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