Is tobacco still worth it? Malawi’s young farmers face a difficult choice

Tobacco has long been one of Malawi’s biggest money-makers, but a difficult 2026 season is forcing a new generation of farmers to question whether the crop still offers a future worth betting on.

For generations, tobacco has been more than just a crop in Malawi. It has been a source of income, a way of life and one of the country’s most important sources of foreign exchange.

But for a growing number of young Malawians entering agriculture, the question is becoming harder to answer: is tobacco still worth it?

The question comes as Malawi’s 2026 tobacco season draws to a close, with the Tobacco Commission announcing that all four tobacco markets will close on Thursday, September 10.

The Commission says the decision follows an assessment showing that a large proportion of this year’s tobacco has already been sold.

However, agriculture expert Ronald Chilumpha says the season has been difficult, with both production and marketing facing challenges and revenues trending below last year’s levels.

“It’s been a difficult year for tobacco, especially when you look at production as well as marketing,” Chilumpha said.

For young farmers, the difficulties go beyond the auction floor.

Entering tobacco farming requires land, labour, fertiliser, chemicals, transport and significant financial investment before a farmer sees any return. A poor harvest or disappointing price can therefore turn an entire season’s work into a struggle to recover costs.

Chilumpha says excessive rains towards the end of the production season affected productivity, while the average price per kilogramme was also lower than last year.

For a young farmer trying to establish an independent livelihood, such uncertainty can be particularly difficult.

Unlike older farmers who may have decades of experience in the crop and established farming networks, younger growers are entering a sector where international demand, production levels and prices can change from one season to another.

Chilumpha says Malawi has repeatedly moved between periods of overproduction and underproduction, a “roller coaster” that makes planning difficult for farmers.

He argues that production targets should be guided by accurate forecasts of international demand, while factors such as tobacco stocks held by off-takers must also be considered.

The challenge is therefore not simply whether young people are willing to grow tobacco, but whether the industry can offer them enough certainty to invest their future in it.

That uncertainty is important for a country where agriculture remains central to livelihoods and tobacco continues to play a major role in generating foreign exchange.

Chilumpha says tobacco requires greater attention to safeguard its contribution to the economy.

He has also welcomed the Tobacco Commission’s introduction of Know Your Grower, saying the initiative could help improve coordination and bring greater discipline to production.

For young farmers, however, better coordination will ultimately have to translate into something more tangible: a crop that can reliably pay for their investment and provide a sustainable livelihood.

The 2026 season, which opened on April 20 and will run for 21 weeks by the time the markets close, may therefore leave many young growers weighing more than this year’s earnings.

They may also be deciding whether tobacco remains a future worth pursuing, or whether Malawi’s next generation of farmers should look elsewhere.