THREE-REFINERY SHOWDOWN! Museveni Holds Fire on Dangote’s Lamu Plant, Says Uganda, Kenya & Tanzania Can All Refine—Won’t Kill Each Other

President Yoweri Museveni has backed Nigeria’s billionaire Aliko Dangote’s plan to build a mega refinery in Kenya but has made it clear that Uganda is not committing its money to the project for now.

Museveni said Uganda must first establish the status of a proposed refinery at Tanga, Tanzania, before deciding whether to invest in Dangote’s planned East African refinery at Lamu.

Speaking at the groundbreaking ceremony for the Dangote East Africa Refinery in Lamu, Museveni revealed that he had previously held discussions with Dangote, Kenyan President William Ruto and Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan about the possibility of establishing a refinery at Tanga.

“I am not aware of the current status of that refinery,” Museveni said, indicating that Uganda would first establish whether the Tanzanian project remains on course before making a decision on the Kenyan investment.

The proposed Tanga refinery forms part of a wider $20 billion Tanga Regional Energy Hub, which is expected to include an integrated petroleum and logistics centre, refinery and storage facilities, with links to Uganda through the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP).

Museveni said he has consistently advocated for more refineries across East Africa and Africa, arguing that increased refining capacity would reduce the continent’s dependence on imported petroleum products and help countries stop exporting crude oil without processing it.

According to the President, having three refineries in East Africa would not necessarily create destructive competition.

Instead, he said, the facilities could complement one another as the region’s demand for petroleum products grows.

Museveni also explained that Uganda’s decision to develop its own refinery was partly driven by the need to ensure that the country does not export all its crude oil without adding value locally.

Uganda’s refinery project has gone through several stalled arrangements, with government previously signing and later dropping agreements with different developers over issues including contractual terms, technical capacity and financial capability.

The latest developer is Alpha MBM Investments LLC, a United Arab Emirates company partnering with the Uganda National Oil Company (UNOC) to develop the Hoima refinery.

Dangote’s Lamu refinery is planned to have a staggering 700,000-barrel-per-day capacity, putting it in the same league as his giant refinery in Nigeria, whose capacity is estimated at between 650,000 and 700,000 barrels per day.

That capacity has sparked a fresh debate over whether the East African market can sustain two or even three major refineries.

The emerging regional contest now involves Dangote’s Lamu refinery, Uganda’s Hoima refinery and the proposed Tanga refinery in Tanzania.

Dangote said the Lamu investment is intended to help Africa, and particularly East Africa, consume and export more of what it produces instead of continuing to export raw resources.

He urged countries such as Uganda, which have not committed to the project, to consider coming on board, while thanking Kenya and Rwanda for moving quickly to participate.

Kenyan President William Ruto said the Lamu refinery has long been part of Kenya’s development plans under the Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport Corridor (LAPSSET).

Ruto said the refinery would form part of East Africa’s wider industrialisation agenda and help develop and stabilise the regional petroleum value chain.

He also warned Kenyan officials against making demands on investors that could discourage investment.

Unlike the proposed Lamu giant, Uganda’s Hoima refinery is designed to process 60,000 barrels of crude oil per day at full capacity, using crude from the Tilenga and Kingfisher oil projects.

The bulk of Uganda’s crude production, estimated at about 170,000 barrels per day, is expected to be exported through EACOP.

Museveni’s latest position therefore leaves Uganda facing a strategic choice: invest in a giant regional refinery at Lamu, press ahead with its own Hoima project, support a possible Tanga refinery—or potentially pursue a combination of the three.

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