El Niño threatens to deepen food insecurity in Southern Africa, as neighbouring countries struggle with insufficient grain supplies amidst looming drought conditions.
Image: AI generated
Countries in the Southern African Development Community could face a sharper food-security shock than South Africa if El Niño brings drought during the 2026/27 production season.
South Africa enters the season with a record maize harvest, large carry-over stocks, improved soil moisture and higher dam levels. Several neighbouring countries lack that protection.
Zimbabwe, Botswana and Namibia are already importing South African grain, indicating that domestic supplies are insufficient to cover annual needs.
These purchases come as countries finish harvesting, when grain would ordinarily be available, leaving little room for another poor harvest or price surge.
Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo warned that regional grain demand could intensify in 2027 if the next harvest disappoints.
“Clearly, the pressures and demand for grain and other agricultural products will likely be strong in 2027 in the sub-Saharan Africa region,” he said.
South Africa may be able to continue exporting maize, but production declines across several SADC countries could increase competition for available supplies and place upward pressure on prices.
East Africa may receive better rainfall, but Kenya is unlikely to produce enough grain to offset Southern African shortages, Sihlobo said.
During the 2015/16 El Niño drought, maize from Mexico helped cover the region’s shortfall. Similar imports may be required again. That would leave countries more exposed to exchange-rate movements, freight costs and weaknesses in ports and inland transport.
Sihlobo said it remained unclear whether the World Food Programme would have sufficient funding to provide similar assistance during a regional crisis, amid concerns that reductions in US aid may have affected its resources.
Reduced aid would leave SADC governments to arrange imports, protect transport routes and identify vulnerable households before the lean season.
Professor Richard Mkandawire, founding chairperson of the MwAPATA Institute, said governments should fund preparations before drought becomes a humanitarian emergency.
He called for national and regional financing, coordination involving governments, researchers, farmers’ organisations and the private sector and said preparation should extend to provincial and district authorities, where emergency measures would be implemented.
Beatrice Makwenda of TrustAfrica said resilience planning must be confronted by those who carry the risk. Smallholders often have the least access to finance and insurance, yet absorb losses when harvests fail.
“When that harvest fails, it’s usually the farmer that really absorbs this loss,” she said.
Without early investment in grain logistics, drought-resistant agriculture, soil health, water management and household support, an agricultural shock could become a regional affordability and hunger crisis.
Follow the story
