Israel’s election explained: Parties, coalitions, and the battle for 61 seats

As Israelis prepare to vote on Tuesday, understanding the country’s unique electoral system is essential to understanding who will lead the next government and why even the smallest political parties could make all the difference.

By World Israel News Staff

On Tuesday, October 27, Israelis will head to the polls in one of the country’s most consequential elections in years. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is seeking to remain in power, while a collection of rival parties hopes to replace him.

But unlike in the United States, Israelis will not directly vote for Netanyahu or any other candidate for prime minister.

Instead, they will vote for political parties, which will then negotiate among themselves to determine who forms the next government.

The process can be confusing, particularly for those accustomed to American elections. Israel’s parliamentary system places enormous importance on post-election negotiations, with rival parties joining forces to form a government and smaller factions often wielding influence far beyond their size.

Here is how the system works, who the major players are, and what could happen after Tuesday’s vote.

The Knesset: 120 Seats and the Magic Number 61

Israel’s parliament, known as the Knesset, consists of 120 members, commonly called MKs.

To form a conventional majority government, a prime minister needs the support of parties controlling at least 61 seats, representing a majority of the Knesset.

Unlike the United States, where two major parties dominate national politics, Israel has numerous political parties representing different religious, ideological, economic, and social interests.

Each party receives Knesset seats roughly in proportion to its share of the vote.

Every party submits a ranked list of candidates before the election. If Likud wins 25 seats, for example, the first 25 eligible candidates on its list become Knesset members.

No single party has ever won an outright majority of the 120-seat Knesset. Consequently, coalition governments, in which multiple parties agree to govern together, have been a permanent feature of Israeli politics.

The largest number of seats ever won by a single electoral list was 56, secured by the Alignment alliance in 1969.

This means that even a party winning 30 seats, an impressive result by Israeli standards, would still need at least 31 additional seats from other parties to form a majority coalition.

The party that wins the most seats does not necessarily form the government. What matters is which political leader can assemble enough parliamentary support to govern.

The Electoral Threshold: Why Every Vote Matters

One of the most consequential features of Israeli elections is the electoral threshold.

To enter the Knesset, a party must receive at least 3.25% of the valid national vote, roughly equivalent to four parliamentary seats.

A party receiving 3.24% wins nothing, even if tens of thousands of Israelis voted for it.

Those votes are excluded from the allocation of Knesset seats, potentially changing the balance of power between competing political blocs.

This can have enormous consequences.

Imagine that two small right-wing parties each receive 2% of the vote. Neither enters the Knesset, even though together they attracted 4% of voters.

Had they run together and received the same combined support, their joint list would have crossed the threshold and potentially won several seats.

This is why political mergers, electoral alliances, and last-minute withdrawals can play such a decisive role in Israeli elections.

In a closely contested election, even a relatively small number of votes cast for parties that fail to cross the threshold could make the difference between one political bloc securing a majority and falling short.

Smotrich, Feiglin, Winter, and Leitner: A Real Election-Day Example

Tuesday’s election provides a particularly clear illustration of how the electoral threshold can shape the outcome.

Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party had fallen below the electoral threshold in some earlier polls, as had Moshe Feiglin’s Zehut party. The two subsequently joined forces, creating a joint electoral list that recent surveys have projected to win approximately six to eight Knesset seats.

Other smaller parties have faced a more difficult situation.

Former IDF commander Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael party has remained below the threshold in major pre-election surveys, despite attracting attention among nationalist and religious voters.

Motty Leitner’s Haredi Public party has also remained in the race despite polling well below the threshold.

Both have faced pressure to withdraw amid concerns that votes cast for parties failing to enter the Knesset could weaken the broader right-wing bloc.

For Netanyahu and his allies, the concern is straightforward: thousands of votes going to parties that win no seats could make the difference between securing a parliamentary majority and falling short.

The same principle applies to smaller parties elsewhere on the political spectrum.

Who Are the Major Parties?

Although Israel has numerous political parties, most of the main contenders can be divided into three broad categories: Netanyahu’s traditional allies, parties seeking to replace him, and Arab parties that could influence the final coalition arithmetic.

Likud: Benjamin Netanyahu

Likud is Israel’s principal mainstream right-wing party and has been led by Netanyahu for much of the past three decades.

The party emphasizes national security, economic liberalization, and a nationalist approach to territorial and diplomatic issues.

Netanyahu is seeking another term as prime minister, highlighting his experience and Israel’s military achievements during the wars against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran.

However, he also faces criticism from opponents over the failures surrounding the October 7 massacre, his government’s handling of the war, judicial reform, and the Haredi military draft controversy.

Otzma Yehudit: Itamar Ben-Gvir

Led by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, Otzma Yehudit represents a more hard-line nationalist constituency.

The party emphasizes tougher policing, aggressive action against terrorism, Jewish rights in Judea and Samaria, and a more confrontational security approach.

Ben-Gvir has generally supported Netanyahu’s leadership while frequently pressuring him to adopt stronger policies.

Religious Zionism–Zehut: Bezalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin

The joint list combines two prominent figures on Israel’s religious-nationalist right.

Smotrich emphasizes Israeli sovereignty in Judea and Samaria, settlement development, religious values, and judicial reform.

Feiglin brings a strong emphasis on free-market economics, individual liberty, Jewish national identity, and far-reaching changes to Israel’s political and governing institutions.

The alliance is part of the broader Netanyahu-aligned camp, although its leaders have their own policy demands.

Shas: Aryeh Deri

Shas represents primarily Sephardi and Mizrahi Haredi voters, although its support extends beyond those communities.

The party prioritizes Torah education, religious institutions, welfare programs, and the interests of traditional and Haredi families.

Shas has been a longstanding Netanyahu ally.

United Torah Judaism

United Torah Judaism, or UTJ, primarily represents Ashkenazi Haredi communities.

It is an alliance of the Degel HaTorah and Agudat Yisrael factions, reflecting different rabbinic and communal constituencies.

Its principal concerns include protecting yeshiva education, preserving religious institutions, and securing arrangements for Haredi military service.

Like Shas, UTJ has generally aligned with Netanyahu, although disagreements over the draft issue have created considerable tension.

Yashar: Gadi Eisenkot

Former IDF chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot leads Yashar, a centrist party that has emerged as one of Likud’s principal electoral competitors.

Eisenkot emphasizes national security, government accountability, institutional reform, and replacing Netanyahu’s leadership.

His military background is central to his political appeal, particularly among voters who want a change in leadership without necessarily embracing traditional left-wing positions.

Beyachad: Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid

Former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid have joined forces on the Beyachad, or Together, list.

The alliance brings together politicians from different ideological backgrounds who share an interest in replacing Netanyahu.

Bennett is associated with the national-religious and center-right political traditions, while Lapid has historically emphasized centrist and secular policies.

Their cooperation illustrates how opposition to Netanyahu can unite politicians who disagree on other important questions.

Yisrael Beiteinu: Avigdor Lieberman

Lieberman’s party represents a secular nationalist constituency, historically including many Russian-speaking Israelis.

It emphasizes national security, economic policies, and reducing the influence of Haredi parties over religious and military-service issues.

Although Lieberman is considered right-wing on many security questions, he strongly opposes Netanyahu and has rejected joining a government under his leadership.

The Democrats: Yair Golan

Led by former IDF deputy chief of staff Yair Golan, the Democrats represent Israel’s liberal and social-democratic left.

The party emphasizes civil liberties, judicial independence, secular governance, and opposition to Netanyahu’s policies.

It is a principal component of the anti-Netanyahu camp.

The Arab Parties

Arab political representation is another important part of the electoral picture.

Ra’am, led by Mansour Abbas, has demonstrated a willingness to negotiate pragmatic political arrangements, including participation in the Bennett-Lapid coalition formed in 2021.

The Joint List represents another grouping of Arab political factions, with a different political approach and priorities.

Although Arab parties are not generally considered part of either main Jewish political bloc, their seats could become decisive if neither side secures a majority.

How the Political Blocs Work

Israeli politics is often described in terms of blocs, or gushim in Hebrew.

A bloc is a collection of parties that are broadly aligned around a common political objective, even if they disagree on individual policies.

In this election, the central division is between parties that support another Netanyahu government and those seeking to replace him.

Netanyahu’s traditional bloc includes Likud, Otzma Yehudit, Religious Zionism–Zehut, Shas, and United Torah Judaism.

The principal opposition parties include Eisenkot’s Yashar, Bennett and Lapid’s Beyachad, Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, and Golan’s Democrats.

Other smaller parties could also become relevant depending on the election results.

However, bloc membership is not legally binding.

A party can recommend a candidate for prime minister without joining that candidate’s government. It can also refuse to enter a coalition even when doing so would provide a parliamentary majority.

That distinction is one reason coalition negotiations can become so complicated.

What Happens After Election Day?

Once voting ends, the ballots are counted and the final allocation of Knesset seats is determined.

But even after the results are announced, Israel may still be weeks away from knowing who will govern.

President Isaac Herzog will consult representatives of the newly elected political parties, each of which can recommend an MK to form the next government.

The president then selects the MK he believes has the strongest chance of forming a government. This is often, but not necessarily, the leader of the largest party.

For example, even if Eisenkot’s Yashar wins more seats than Netanyahu’s Likud, Netanyahu could still receive the mandate if he has a stronger chance of assembling a governing coalition.

The chosen candidate then begins negotiating with other parties to secure enough parliamentary support to establish a government.

Coalition Negotiations: How a Government Is Built

Once a candidate receives the mandate, the real political bargaining begins.

The designated candidate initially has 28 days to form a government, with a possible extension of up to 14 days.

During that period, representatives of the various parties negotiate coalition agreements.

These agreements determine which parties will join the government, which ministerial portfolios they will receive, and what policies the government will pursue.

For example, a Netanyahu-led coalition could involve negotiations with Shas and UTJ over yeshiva funding and military-service arrangements.

Smotrich could seek commitments on Israeli sovereignty in Judea and Samaria, while Ben-Gvir could demand tougher internal security policies.

On the opposition side, parties would have to resolve disagreements over religion and state, judicial reform, security, and the role of Haredi or Arab political parties.

Ministerial appointments are another major bargaining tool.

Parties may demand control of the Finance Ministry, Defense Ministry, Education Ministry, or other government departments in exchange for joining a coalition.

A party controlling only six or seven seats can therefore exercise considerable influence if its participation is essential to reaching a majority.

Once the agreements are finalized, the proposed government is presented to the Knesset for a confidence vote.

If it wins the necessary parliamentary support, the new government is sworn in.

What If Nobody Can Form a Government?

If the first candidate fails to form a government within the allotted period, the president can assign the task to another MK.

That candidate receives 28 days, without an extension.

If the second attempt also fails, a final 21-day period allows at least 61 MKs to request that another candidate be given the mandate. That candidate receives 14 days.

If all attempts fail, Israel heads toward another election.

This is not merely theoretical.

Between 2019 and 2022, Israel held five national elections amid repeated political deadlocks and unstable governing arrangements.

The country’s parliamentary system makes coalition building essential, but it does not guarantee that a workable coalition can be assembled.

What Are the Possible Scenarios After Tuesday?

The final pre-election polls have generally shown neither major political camp securing an outright majority.

Surveys published October 23 and 24 placed Eisenkot’s Yashar ahead of Likud as an individual party in several polls, while Netanyahu’s traditional allies and the principal opposition parties both remained short of 61 seats.

That creates several possible post-election scenarios.

Scenario One: Netanyahu Forms Another Right-Wing Government

If Likud, Otzma Yehudit, Religious Zionism–Zehut, Shas, and UTJ collectively win at least 61 seats, Netanyahu could negotiate another government with his established political partners.

Such a coalition would still have to settle disputes over the Haredi draft, judicial reform, and other policies.

Scenario Two: Eisenkot or Another Opposition Leader Forms a Government

If the opposition parties collectively secure a workable parliamentary majority, they could attempt to establish a government without Netanyahu.

However, such a coalition would bring together parties with significant ideological differences, particularly concerning religion and state.

The selection of a prime minister would also require agreement among the participating factions.

Scenario Three: Neither Bloc Wins a Majority

This is a particularly important possibility given the final polling.

If neither camp controls 61 seats, both sides may have to seek additional partners, reconsider existing alliances, or explore arrangements involving outside parliamentary support.

A small party that enters the Knesset could become essential to one side’s efforts.

Scenario Four: Arab Parties Hold the Balance

If neither major bloc secures a majority, Arab parties could theoretically provide outside parliamentary support for an alternative government.

However, this scenario faces significant political obstacles, as several major opposition parties have ruled out governing with Arab factions, while the Arab parties themselves have attached conditions to their support.

Scenario Five: A National Unity Government

Parties from competing blocs could theoretically negotiate a broader unity government to avoid another election.

However, this scenario also faces significant obstacles, as Eisenkot has explicitly ruled out serving in a government with Netanyahu, even under a rotation agreement. He has left open the possibility of joining a government with Likud under different leadership.

Scenario Six: Another Election

If the parties remain divided and no candidate can assemble a viable government, Israel could ultimately face another election.

That outcome would prolong the political uncertainty and leave the outgoing government in office until a replacement is established.

What Are the Latest Polls Showing?

Final major television surveys published ahead of the election have generally placed Eisenkot’s Yashar ahead of Likud as an individual party, although the gap varies.

A Channel 12 survey placed Yashar at 23 seats and Likud at 21, while other polls produced somewhat different results.

Across three major television surveys, the principal anti-Netanyahu parties were projected to receive approximately 52 to 56 seats, compared with around 50 for Netanyahu’s traditional allies.

Arab parties and smaller lists therefore remain important to the final coalition arithmetic.

However, small differences in turnout or parties crossing the electoral threshold could significantly change the final distribution of seats.

What Happens If a Coalition Collapses?

Even after a government is formed, its survival depends on maintaining enough parliamentary support.

Imagine a government begins with 64 seats, but a seven-seat party withdraws from the coalition.

The government would be left with just 57 coalition MKs.

That does not automatically trigger an election. The government could attempt to find another partner, negotiate the return of the departing party, or continue as a minority government.

However, it would become more difficult to pass legislation and survive parliamentary challenges.

Israel’s system also includes a constructive no-confidence mechanism, under which lawmakers must support a process for establishing an alternative government rather than simply voting to remove the existing one.

Failure to approve the state budget within the legally required period can also lead to the Knesset’s dissolution and new elections.

What to Watch on Election Night

When voting closes at 10 p.m. Tuesday, Israel’s major television networks will release their exit polls, offering the first projections of how the next Knesset might look.

But these are only estimates. Actual vote counts will begin coming in overnight, with substantial results expected by Wednesday morning, providing a much clearer picture of the parties’ seat totals and the balance between the political blocs.

Remaining ballots, including those cast by soldiers, will be counted over the following days, with official results required by November 4.

Particular attention will be paid to which smaller parties cross the 3.25% electoral threshold, as even a slight shift could change the distribution of seats and determine whether either political bloc secures a majority.

However, even after the final results are announced, the biggest question may remain unanswered: Who will form the next government?

Israelis will decide who enters the Knesset on Tuesday, but the coalition negotiations that follow will determine who actually governs.

The post Israel’s election explained: Parties, coalitions, and the battle for 61 seats appeared first on World Israel News.