Poll points to another era of hung councils, limping coalitions

The country’s biggest metros could be heading for another period of coalition government after the November local government elections, with a new News24/SABI poll showing no clear path to outright majorities in several key cities.

The findings point to a fragmented political landscape in which voters are moving away from traditional loyalties but are not necessarily consolidating behind one alternative party.

No outright majorities in sight

Johannesburg is a case in point. The poll puts Democratic Alliance (DA) mayoral candidate Helen Zille ahead at 36%, but that remains well short of the 50% needed for an outright majority.

Tshwane presents a similar picture, with the DA on 32%, followed by the African National Congress (ANC) on 24%, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) on 14% and ActionSA on 11%.

READ: DA asks court to curb rivals’ PR strategy ahead of local elections

In eThekwini, the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party is the dominant force in the poll at about 43%, putting it far ahead of the ANC. But even that support falls short of the threshold needed to govern without partners.

Voters not opposed to coalitions

The numbers suggest that voters could once again leave some of the country’s most important economic centres with councils in which parties have to negotiate their way into power.

That prospect is significant because coalition government has already proven difficult in several municipalities, with political disputes, leadership changes and shifting alliances often taking attention away from the business of running cities.

The poll shows that voters are not necessarily opposed to the idea itself, with 61% saying they would be happy with a coalition governing their municipality.

READ: Coalition governments are not a passing phase in South Africa

What remains uncertain is whether political parties can turn that acceptance into effective government.

There is no dominant coalition preference among voters. An ANC and DA partnership received the highest support at 20%, followed by a coalition involving all 10 parties in the Government of National Unity at 19%.

Another 15% preferred an ANC and EFF coalition, while the same proportion backed an ANC, EFF and MK Party arrangement. One in five respondents did not know which combination they preferred.

This uncertainty comes against a backdrop of widespread dissatisfaction with government.

Positive sentiments rule

Sixty-nine per cent of respondents believe South Africa is moving in the wrong direction, while 66% believe their municipality is doing the same.

Yet 71% believe the local government elections can bring change to their municipality.

That tension is likely to shape the election: voters want something different, but the poll not showing a single political force emerging as the obvious vehicle for that change.

Prolonged battles mean service delivery failures

Nationally, the ANC remains the largest party on 31.6%, with the DA on 25.2%, MK Party on 14.7% and the EFF on 12.2%.

The figures show the ANC remains ahead, but its support is far removed from the dominance it once enjoyed. At the same time, the opposition vote remains divided, allowing smaller parties to become decisive in councils where no party reaches a majority.

For Johannesburg and Tshwane, this could mean that the party finishing first may still need to negotiate with several other parties before it can govern.

In eThekwini, MKP’s strong showing could dramatically reshape the political balance in KwaZulu-Natal, even if the party falls short of governing alone.

The consequences for residents will ultimately depend on what happens after the votes are counted.

Coalitions can broaden representation and force parties to compromise, but unstable political arrangements can also delay decisions and weaken accountability.

For residents dealing with water shortages, electricity problems, poor roads, refuse collection failures and struggling municipal finances, prolonged political battles come at a cost.

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