2027 Election: Experts, Analysts, Others Raise Fresh Concerns As Nigeria Marks Independence Day

…Nigeria’s Democracy Is Fragile – CHRICED

…2027 Should Not Be a Gang War – Yoruba Council

***…‘Prosecute Ethnic, Religious Jingoists’ ***

As Nigeria prepares to mark 66 years of independence on October 1, another question is beginning to dominate the political space: what will happen to the country’s democracy as the battle for the presidency ahead of the 2027 election gathers pace?

The question comes at a crucial time, with political parties already positioning themselves for the next general election.

LEADERSHIP reports that the 2027 presidential race is already reshaping political alliances, driving fresh mobilisation and exposing growing tensions within the country’s political space. In fact, some Nigerians would tag the next election as ‘the poor against the paid poor” – A major indicator of how intense the 2027 election would be.

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) fixed February 20, 2027, for the presidential and National Assembly elections, while the governorship and State Houses of Assembly elections will hold on March 6.

With the dates now set, the political groundwork is gathering pace, with parties strengthening their structures, building alliances and reaching out to voters ahead of the polls.

The APC is determined to retain power, while opposition figures including Peter Obi, Atiku Abubakar and their allies are stepping up efforts to challenge the ruling party.

As the political battle takes shape, one question remains: can Nigeria’s democracy withstand the heat of the 2027 contest?

Difficult road to 2027

An August 2026 pre-election assessment by the International Republican Institute (IRI) identified several issues that could shape the 2027 elections, including the growing strength of the APC, the weakening of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), divisions within the opposition, economic hardship, insecurity and declining confidence in political institutions. These issues are likely to make the 2027 contest about more than party structures and political alliances. Voters will also be looking at the economy, security, the performance of government and whether the institutions handling the election can earn their confidence.

For many Nigerians, the memories of the 2023 elections will still be fresh when they return to the polls. So too will concerns about rising living costs, unemployment, insecurity and the wider state of the economy.

The 2027 election will, therefore, give voters another opportunity to judge the records, promises and plans put forward by the parties and their candidates.

And as the political temperature rises, concerns are also growing about whether the competition will remain within the bounds of peaceful democratic engagement.

Political rhetoric and concerns

Recent events have offered an indication of how heated the political environment could become as 2027 approaches.

In August, Amnesty International and Yiaga Africa condemned remarks attributed to the chairman of Kuje Area Council in the Federal Capital Territory, Samuel Shekwolo, after he reportedly told residents that they should support the APC or leave the area council.

Shekwolo was quoted as saying, “It’s either you are doing APC or leave the area council,” while linking the position to development interventions by President Bola Tinubu and FCT Minister Nyesom Wike.

The remarks drew criticism from rights and democracy groups, which argued that citizens should not be threatened or discriminated against because of their political choices.

A similar controversy emerged in Borno State, where Commissioner for Youth and Sports Development Sainna Buba was reported to have used threatening language while addressing an APC-linked political gathering.

He was quoted as saying that those who “show us a finger” would have their fingers broken and that those who refused to follow the government would be “flogged.”

Amnesty International subsequently condemned the remarks and called for an investigation.

It is against this backdrop that civil society organisations and democracy advocates have increasingly warned that the tone of political engagement ahead of 2027 could have consequences beyond the campaign season.

2027: CHRICED raises alarm over dwindling democracy

The Resource Centre for Human Rights and Civic Education (CHRICED) in an interview with LEADERSHIP raised concerns about the pressure on Nigeria’s democratic institutions ahead of the 2027 elections.

CHRICED Executive Director, Dr Ibrahim M. Zikirullahi, said Nigeria was approaching a defining moment, warning that the political atmosphere surrounding the 2027 election could further expose existing weaknesses in the country’s democratic system.

According to him, “the biggest threats to the survival of democracy in Nigeria are clear, present, and escalating.”

Zikirullahi specifically identified the weaponisation of ethnicity, religion and regional sentiments as a major threat, arguing that inflammatory political rhetoric could deepen divisions and transform elections into contests driven by identity rather than issues.

He said, “When politicians mobilise voters through fear, division, and ethnic supremacy, elections become existential battles rather than democratic contests.”

He also pointed to electoral violence and the normalisation of political thuggery as another danger.

“Political actors recruit thugs, arm youths, and turn communities into battlegrounds,” he said.

He further stressed the need to prosecute sponsors of political violence irrespective of party affiliation.

Beyond violence and identity politics, Zikirullahi also raised concerns about the strength and independence of democratic institutions.

He identified INEC, the police and the judiciary among institutions that must be protected from political interference, warning that “when institutions bend to political pressure, democracy collapses.”

2027: Prosecute ethnic, religious jingoists – CHRICED

Zikirullahi argued that inflammatory rhetoric could weaken national cohesion when political actors present elections as contests between ethnic, religious or regional groups.

He advocated stronger civic education and greater emphasis on issue-based campaigns, saying political competition should focus on policies capable of improving citizens’ lives.

“Encourage issue-based campaigns through INEC guidelines and media responsibility. Prosecute sponsors of political violence regardless of party affiliation,” CHRICED said

Yoruba council: 2027 is not a gang war

Also speaking, Lawyer and human rights activist Oladotun Hassan, who also serves as President of the Yoruba Council Worldwide, said Nigeria must move away from what he described as ethnic rivalry, political chauvinism, personal attacks and divisive narratives.

Reflecting on Nigeria’s 66 years of independence and the 2027 elections, Hassan argued that elections should not be treated as battles between ethnic or religious groups.

“Elections should not be seen like a gang war, as if an ethnic group is about to take over from another,” he said.

According to him, political competition should instead focus on competence, commitment and patriotism.

“It’s all about competence. It’s all about commitment. It’s all about ensuring stability and patriotism,” Hassan said.

He expressed concern over what he described as the increasing prominence of ethnicity, religion and political animosity in political campaigns.

“The way political campaigns are being run at this period is more personal. It has to do more with ethnicity, religion and political animosity,” he said.

Hassan also argued that Nigeria needs to confront questions surrounding regional power rotation and political succession, although such arrangements remain matters of political convention rather than constitutional requirements.

He said the debate over who should contest in 2027 should not be reduced to ethnic rivalry or political entitlement.

“Nobody is born to rule. We all have an equal, fair share in our democracy,” Hassan said.

His position reflects one side of a broader political debate over zoning and power rotation, with different political actors holding competing views about how those conventions should influence the 2027 presidential contest.

For Hassan, however, the more important consideration should be the ability of political campaigns to address the problems confronting ordinary Nigerians.

“All political campaigns should be run around ideology that is to better the lot of the citizen,” he said.